The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Scott Frost

Followed Mike Riley. Scott Frost held Nebraska at Power Program III for 5 seasons.

The ascent
40–45
2016–2022 · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

It’s hard to be at your best in Week 1
On3 · · the day of UCF's 2026 opener
I’m a lot more confident
On3the day of the 73–6 opener
The thing I feel best about is the type of people we have on the team
On3the day before the opener
We have trouble identifying captains this year because there’s too many guys that qualify for it
On3the day before the opener
Statistically last year — and I don’t know if it will hold up — but being old as a football team was a huge advantage statistically
On3the day before the opener
I’m excited about Ty
On3the day before the opener
I feel great about our depth at almost every spot
On3the day before the opener
and not just having depth, but having quality depth that can go in and perform well. I think we’re a lot deeper team than we were.
On3the day before the opener
I really want him to come out and have a really good first game
On3the day before the opener
I just think he was underrated when you look at the portal and quarterbacks in general
On3the day before the opener
He’s made our offensive line better
On3the day before the opener
It’s going to be nice and refreshing to have a guy that everybody looks to and knows that he’s the guy
Heartland College Sports
Alonza has played a lot of football games
Heartland College Sports
We didn’t really have that a year ago either, the vocal guy out in front
Heartland College Sports

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerUCFNEBRASKAPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUCF, 2016: 6-7, National Program III2016UCF, 2017: 13-0, National Program II2017UCF, 2025: 5-7, National Program II2025UCF, 2026: in progress, National Program II2026+4.6Nebraska, 2018: 4-8, Power Program III2018Nebraska, 2019: 5-7, Power Program III2019Nebraska, 2020: 3-5, Power Program III2020Nebraska, 2021: 3-9, National Program I2021Nebraska, 2022: 1-2, National Program I2022-4.8One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 5th career season — faster than 30% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #251 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

UCF, 4 seasons (active)
+4.6
National Program III → National Program II.
Nebraska, 5 seasons
−4.8
Power Program III → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%UCF2016–2026▲ 0.9ptNebraska2018–2022▼ 1.8pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
UCF5.1pt#228 of 258 · less than most
Nebraska9.3pt#145 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–9 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Kirk Ferentz.

Rivalry record
1–9
10.0% · 4 rivals
One-score games
11–22
33.3% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–3
0.0%
Buyout owed
$13,793,750 (est.)
bigger than 65% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Iowa0–40%
Wisconsin0–30%
Colorado0–10%
The toughest matchup
vs. Kirk Ferentz0–4
4 meetings, 2018–2021
’18 L’19 L’20 L · blew a 7-pt lead’21 L · blew a 15-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–3 0.0%
Power Program
3–13 18.8%
National Program
12–13 48.0%
Regional Program
18–10 64.3%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.02
#165 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.10
#91 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

coaching decisionOne fan's take

One fan believes Scott Frost's play-calling weakened defensive positioning

Frost really needs to know when using an early timeout would be good, been a couple times where his defense needed a second and he’s just letting it play out

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 12, 2026 · via CFB

Show all 6
program directionOne fan's take

One fan believes Scott Frost is underperforming compared to his past success

Scott Frost for UCF could be on this list soon. The man has had a losing record every year as a head coach since that magical 2017 season

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 17, 2026 · via Josh Pate's College Football Show

job securityOne fan's take

One fan believes Scott Frost is in his second year at UCF

2026 UCF preview, Frost year 2 and a Sun Belt POY at QB. What'd I get wrong? Been going team by team on 2026 previews and just wrapped UCF.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 30, 2026 · via UCFKnights

coaching decisionOne fan's take

One fan believes Scott Frost is making meaningful improvements in UCF's offensive execution and game planning

Landen Chambers: he needs to get UCF first downs and TDs on short yardage, can guarantee 3 to 6 yds on first downs, and can pick up blitzers and DEs to protect AB. That was totally missing last year and cost us 3 wins, lots of TDs, and ended most drives. I think Frost will devise signals to win on the road against manufactured deafening noise. Yes, so many opponents had experienced, returning QBs last year.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 24, 2026 · via Sons of UCF

program directionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Scott Frost improved UCF's offense significantly

Scott Frost has a 14 game win streak at UCF and people are trying to gaslight me saying it was a bad hire? How many does he need to change their minds?

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 29, 2025 · via CFB

coaching decisionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Scott Frost develops quarterbacks better than Gus Malzahn

Scott frost gonna make this offense look 18x better with less talent just because of how bad Gus Malzahn fucking is ahahahaha

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 28, 2025 · via CFB

Coaching career

2018–2022
Nebraskacaretaker
Power Program III → Power Program III
Scott Frost held Nebraska at Power Program III for 5 seasons.

9th-best Nebraska tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-4.4 pts
#132 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-10.2 pts
#148 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Riley (2015–2017) · succeeded by Matt Rhule (2023–2026).

Season20182019202020212022Trend
Record & result
Record4–85–73–53–93–6
Postseason
Recruiting rank#23#18#20#20#41
Style — pass rate
Pass rate46.537.340.641.144.7
Coordinators
OCTroy WaltersTroy WaltersMatt LubickMatt LubickMark Whipple
DCErik ChinanderErik ChinanderErik ChinanderErik ChinanderErik Chinander
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7733617136
Defense4365485237
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%46.437.234.540.743.2
Red-zone pass%38.822.529.721.436.8
4th-down go%opp. territory52.931.832.339.521.1
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
20
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
38
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-18
#125 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 232 lbs
across 17 of 20 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+8.9 lbs
#24 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#26 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (2), LA (2), OK (2), IA (1), MI (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.4
position-weighted
Net
-0.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Casey Thompson (QB) from Texas
Biggest loss: Adrian Martinez (QB) to Kansas State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Troy Walters → Matt Lubick · 2020the system held
55th pct66th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 41.8% → 37.6% (-4.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 62% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
208 lbs
6′2″ avg · #528 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
211 lbs
5′11″ avg · #260 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
194 lbs
6′1″ avg · #356 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
248 lbs
6′6″ avg · #263 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
310 lbs
6′6″ avg · #358 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
295 lbs
6′5″ avg · #163 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
226 lbs
6′2″ avg · #513 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
195 lbs
6′1″ avg · #148 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
75%
#165 of 208 stints

10 NFL Draft picks: Tanner Lee (2018), Khalil Davis (2020), Carlos Davis (2020), Brenden Jaimes (2021), Matt Farniok (2021), Cameron Jurgens (2022), Cam Taylor-Britt (2022), Samori Toure (2022) + 2 more

16–31
2016–now
UCFcaretaker
National Program III → National Program II
Scott Frost moved UCF from National Program III to National Program II in 4 seasons.

4th-best UCF tenure of 7 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+13.4 pts
#55 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+9.7 pts
#68 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed George O'Leary (2004–2015).

Season20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record6–713–012–110–36–49–49–56–74–85–70–0
PostseasonL bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#65#55#62#59#71#55#53#50#35#79#66
Style — pass rate
Pass rate46.045.939.845.047.945.042.340.937.551.046.9
Coordinators
OCTroy WaltersTroy WaltersJeff LebbyAlex Golesh / Anthony TuckerGJ Kinne / Tim Harris Jr.Chip LindseyDarin HinshawTim Harris Jr. / Darin HinshawSteve CooperSteve Cooper
DCErik ChinanderErik ChinanderRandy ShannonRandy ShannonRandy ShannonDavid Gibbs / Travis WilliamsDavid Gibbs / Travis WilliamsDavid Gibbs / Addison WilliamsTed Roof / Addison WilliamsAlex GrinchAlex Grinch
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense596958890497188542782
Defense9654578743582775715778
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%46.844.443.451.449.939.435.840.432.747.354.3
Red-zone pass%32.137.828.533.640.444.732.738.722.530.527.3
4th-down go%opp. territory40.433.342.952.651.535.348.841.244.145.7
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
137
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
171
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-34
#34 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 239 lbs
across 107 of 137 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.4 lbs
#81 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#80 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: FL (34), GA (14), TX (6), NJ (5), AL (5)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
61.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
64.3
position-weighted
Net
-3.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Joey Gatewood (QB) from Kentucky
Biggest loss: Jacurri Brown (QB) to Rice
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Jeff Lebby → co-Alex Golesh / co-Anthony Tucker · 2020
88th pct90th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 51.4% → 49.9% (-1.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 68% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-GJ Kinne / co-Tim Harris Jr. → Chip Lindsey · 2022
49th pct71st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.4% → 35.8% (-3.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Chip Lindsey → co-Darin Hinshaw · 2023
71st pct88th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 35.8% → 40.4% (+4.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 68% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Darin Hinshaw → Tim Harris Jr. / co-Darin Hinshaw · 2024
88th pct54th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 40.4% → 32.7% (-7.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 40% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-David Gibbs / Travis Williams → co-David Gibbs / co-Addison Williams · 2023
27th pct75th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-David Gibbs / co-Addison Williams → Ted Roof / co-Addison Williams · 2024
75th pct71st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
206 lbs
6′1″ avg · #585 of 767 · less than most
Running back
199 lbs
5′10″ avg · #667 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
191 lbs
6′0″ avg · #471 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
236 lbs
6′3″ avg · #646 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
305 lbs
6′4″ avg · #567 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
299 lbs
6′4″ avg · #111 of 753 · more than most
Edge
248 lbs
6′4″ avg · #132 of 188 · a typical amount
Linebacker
227 lbs
6′2″ avg · #476 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
186 lbs
6′1″ avg · #596 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys LS via the portal
100%
#1 of 12 stints
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints
Postseason detail2016: Lost to Arkansas State 13–31 Autonation Cure Bowl2017: Beat Auburn 34–27 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl2018: Lost to LSU 32–40 Playstation Fiesta Bowl2019: Beat Marshall 48–25 Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl2020: Lost to BYU 23–49 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl2021: Beat Florida 29–17 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl2022: Lost to Duke 13–30 Military Bowl Presented by Peraton2023: Lost to Georgia Tech 17–30 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

18 NFL Draft picks: Shaquill Griffin (2017), Mike Hughes (2018), Tre'Quan Smith (2018), Jordan Akins (2018), Shaquem Griffin (2018), Trysten Hill (2019), Gabriel Davis (2020), Richie Grant (2021) + 10 more

AI Narratives — “UCF's 2025 Season: A Tale of Two Halves” and 1 more on the team page.

24–14

Defining games during this era

2018 Peach Bowl · UCF 34, Auburn 27