Louisville 52-24 Stanford (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Stanford · Louisville

Stanford4-524

Louisville5-352Final

Sat, Oct 31 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky. · Crowd 44,308

Louisville routed Stanford 52-24.

We had Louisville favored. It won.

Next: Stanford at Virginia Tech, Sat Nov 14

Next: Louisville at Georgia Tech, Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · Louisville favored by 14.5

That’s the explosiveness we’ve come to expect from Stanford football

A Stanford fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisville a 93% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisville was a 22.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.

75-yard TD pass

Stanford · Q2 5:16Fumble return TD

Louisville · Q3 3:3475-yard TD run

Louisville · Q4 10:01

FinalLouisville 52-24 StanfordLouisville wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The play that swung it

1Q2 5:16Warren 75-yd TD pass to Black, Stanford goes ahead 17-14Louisville 95% → 85% (−10)

The play that swung it

1Q2 5:16Warren 75-yd TD pass to Black, Stanford goes ahead 17-14Stanford 5% → 15% (+10)

Why did Stanford try a trick play when they could just have a TE/RB leak out for a 50 yard gain?

Q3 3:43 · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 10:41Warren throws 41-yard touchdown pass to Brown as Louisville fans rip defenseOur away game performance is so horrendous I would consider this a win even if we completely blow it the rest of the way out.r/CFB game thread
Q2 3:38Louisville fans celebrate Kienholz pass to Richardson as targeting call is upheldWait they're reviewing the catch not the hit???r/CFB game thread
Q3 3:43Stanford attempted a trick play that resulted in a turnover.

Louisville’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Louisville -22.5), at 95% for Louisville (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Louisville or Stanford flair (321 and 148); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Louisville’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Louisville scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Stanford on 4 of its 14.

Louisville’s drives are teal, Stanford’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Stanford’s side

Stanford’s best moment: Warren 75-yd TD pass to Black, Stanford goes ahead 17-14 (Q2 5:16). It lifted Stanford’s win chance by 10 points.

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

Louisville’s chance to make the playoff rose from 2% to 3%.

Make the playoff

Stanford · lost0% → 0%

Louisville · won2% → ▲3%

Win the conference

Stanford · lost0% → 0%

Louisville · won2% → ▲3%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Louisville plays at Georgia Tech on Sat Nov 7 with a 3% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Louisville 52, Stanford 24

Louisville covered −22.5 by 5.5. The total, 76, went over 59.5.

Team totals	Stanford	Louisville
Total yards	351	545
Passing	23 of 38, 270 yds	21 of 29, 249 yds
Rushing	31 for 81 yds	33 for 296 yds
First downs	15	22
Third down	2 of 16	6 of 11
Fourth down	4 of 8	0 of 1
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	5 for 55 yds	5 for 39 yds
Time of possession	30:42	29:18

Stanford leaders

Passing Davis Warren 23 of 37, 270 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Micah Ford 20 for 72 yds; Sedrick Irvin 6 for 24 yds
Receiving Nico Brown 6 for 109 yds, 1 TD; Aiden Black 1 for 75 yds, 1 TD

Louisville leaders

Passing Lincoln Kienholz 20 of 28, 250 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Isaac Brown 9 for 139 yds, 3 TD; Lincoln Kienholz 9 for 62 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Tre Richardson 10 for 140 yds; Isaac Brown 3 for 33 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

69° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the northeast, gusts to 6

The usual here around this date is 59°, with about 7 in 10 games between 49° and 67°.

October game-day temperatures at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:43 left3:26 p.m.

Stanford 0, Louisville 0 · Louisville 95% to win

no rain · wind 2 mph from the north-northeast · 70°

Kienholz 12-yd pass to Brown

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Louisville International airport, 2.5 miles away, and Louisville/bowman airport, 5.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Stanford · 4-4

Rated 97th in our preseason ratings, 130th now, down 33 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over NC State as a 7.5-point underdog.

W 31-28 vs NC State No. 69 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 34-7 vs Elon No. 230 of 668 teams

won by 27 as a 33.5-point favorite

L 7-58 @ Notre DameTop 25 No. 3 of 668 teams

lost by 51 as a 40.5-point underdog

L 3-57 @ Wake ForestTop 25 No. 58 of 668 teams

lost by 54 as a 14.5-point underdog

W 34-27 vs Georgia Tech No. 100 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 3-point underdog

L 7-35 @ Duke No. 59 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 6-45 vs MiamiTop 25 No. 10 of 668 teams

lost by 39 as a 24.5-point underdog

W 37-27 vs Hawai'i No. 62 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 4.5-point favorite

Last three games

Louisville · 4-3

Rated 61st in our preseason ratings, 31st now, up 30 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 34-26 @ Syracuse No. 112 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 14.5-point favorite

W 44-20 vs Florida State No. 63 of 668 teams

won by 24 as a 4-point favorite

L 28-31 @ NC State No. 45 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 27-30 vs Wake ForestTop 25 No. 71 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 41-31 vs SMUTop 25 No. 13 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 3-point favorite

W 59-13 vs Villanova No. 148 of 668 teams

won by 46 as a 39.5-point favorite

L 38-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 No. 11 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

Week by week

Louisville

Wk 3Wvs SMU41-31
Wk 4Lvs Wake Forest27-30
Wk 5Lat NC State28-31
Wk 6Wvs Florida State44-20
Wk 7Wat Syracuse34-26

Stanford

Wk 4Wvs Georgia Tech34-27
Wk 5Lat Wake Forest3-57
Wk 6Lat Notre Dame7-58
Wk 7Wvs Elon34-7
Wk 8Wvs NC State31-28

Power rating by week

Louisville is rated 10.6 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Louisville’s EPA/play against Stanford, 97 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Louisville’s EPA/play against Stanford’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · Stanford defense, 0th
Louisville’s rushing EPA against Stanford’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · Stanford defense, 1st
Louisville’s explosive plays against Stanford’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · Stanford defense, 17th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

StanfordLouisville

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Stanford leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · Stanford won the last meeting

2024Stanford 38-35

Each line is Louisville’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Stanford fans are in a better mood than Louisville fans (73rd percentile vs 23rd among FBS fanbases), even with Louisville favored.

Louisville favored by 22.5 · Total 59.5

How games like this usually go

Louisville by 22.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 430 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Louisville.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Louisville is worth +6.1 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 82nd percentile.

61% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (31-20 home, 16-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.9 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±6.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 1,975 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Stanford 38, Louisville 35Nov 16, 2024

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Louisville6th3-2
Stanford10th2-3

Full ACC standings

Louisville routs Stanford 52-24