Stanford 37-27 Hawai'i (Aug 29, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Hawai'i · Stanford

Hawai'i0-127

Stanford1-037Final

Sat, Aug 29 · Stanford Stadium, Stanford, Calif. · Crowd 23,222

Stanford beat Hawai'i 37-27.

We had Hawai'i favored. Stanford won.

Next: Hawai'i lost to UNLV 21-6, Sat Sep 5

Next: Stanford lost to Miami 45-6, Fri Sep 4

Top comment in the game thread

Stanford with the miracle cover. Never bet college football, kids

Q4 1:41 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Aug 29

How it swung

The turning point: Ford 2-yd TD run, Stanford goes ahead 30-27 (Q4, 1:41). Stanford went from 48% to 83% to win. Fans right then: “Stanford with the miracle cover. Never bet college football, kids” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Stanford a 41% chance, and the closing betting line (Stanford was a 4.5-point favorite) put it at 64%.

A tight one: Stanford bottomed out at 44% and won.

Hawai'i never had better than a 56% chance.

Blocked field goalQ2 1:57Safety

Stanford · Q3 13:3220 unanswered

Hawai'i · Q4 4:06Fumble return TD

Stanford · Q4 1:12

FinalStanford 37-27 Hawai'iStanford wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 4:06Alejado 29-yd TD pass to Rice, Hawai'i goes ahead 27-23Stanford 66% → 44% (−22)
2Q4 1:41Ford 2-yd TD run, Stanford goes ahead 30-27Stanford 49% → 83% (+34)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 4:06Alejado 29-yd TD pass to Rice, Hawai'i goes ahead 27-23Hawai'i 34% → 56% (+22)
2Q4 1:41Ford 2-yd TD run, Stanford goes ahead 30-27Hawai'i 52% → 17% (−35)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 10:43Fans argue the incomplete Warren pass was a touchdown before the stadium reverses the callHi I just got out of Thai prison, is Davis Warren the GOAT?r/CFB game threadReversed in stadiumr/CFB game thread
Q4 9:39Alejado throws touchdown pass to Uiliata as Hawaii fans celebrate comebackAlejado is my favorite miniature quarterback, he plays just like a real quarterback!r/CFB game thread
Q4 5:50Alejado throws touchdown pass to Rice, giving Hawaii the leadIdk why, but Hawaii should be a new rival for Stanford. It just feels right to me.r/CFB game threadCan Kansei go back to Hawaii? Just asking.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:44Fans argue officials ruled a Warren pass to Blackburn a catch despite being out of boundsThat's incomplete but I can fully see the refs calling it a catchr/CFB game thread
Q4 2:19Stanford scores with 1:41 left, fans debate missed extra point and clock managementThis is the PAC-12 after dark I’ve been missingr/CFB game threadThat missed XP looming potentially larger/CFB game thread
Q4 1:41Tafiti returns a fumble for a touchdown to seal Stanford's victoryQuoted at the top of the page.

Stanford’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Stanford -4.5), at 71% for Stanford (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Stanford or Hawai'i flair (224 and 115); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Stanford’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Stanford scored on 4 of its 13 drives; Hawai'i on 4 of its 14.

Stanford’s drives are teal, Hawai'i’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Hawai'i’s side

Hawai'i’s best moment: Alejado 29-yd TD pass to Rice, Hawai'i goes ahead 27-23 (Q4 4:06). It lifted Hawai'i’s win chance by 22 points.

How Hawai'i fans took it: “It’s the hope that kills ya” r/CFB game thread

“1:40 with 2 time outs is a loooot of time.”

A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Loud

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was busy.

Box score

Stanford 37, Hawai'i 27

Stanford covered −4.5 by 5.5. The total, 64, went over 48.5.

Team totals	Hawai'i	Stanford
Total yards	322	483
Passing	31 of 52, 276 yds	22 of 34, 310 yds
Rushing	22 for 46 yds	37 for 173 yds
First downs	19	21
Third down	8 of 19	7 of 16
Fourth down	2 of 2	1 of 2
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	7 for 31 yds	8 for 59 yds
Time of possession	29:06	30:54

Hawai'i leaders

Passing Micah Alejado 31 of 51, 272 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Devon Rice 11 for 35 yds, 1 TD; Sitani Mikaele 4 for 15 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Kainoa Carvalho 5 for 72 yds; Tama Uiliata 8 for 62 yds, 1 TD

Stanford leaders

Passing Davis Warren 22 of 34, 310 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Micah Ford 25 for 99 yds, 3 TD; Sedrick Irvin 8 for 43 yds
Receiving Jonanthony Hall 2 for 81 yds; Zion Robinson 2 for 57 yds

No rain through the game

77° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Game-day temperatures at Stanford Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:41 left7:34 p.m.

Hawai'i 27, Stanford 30 · Stanford 83% to win

67°

Ford 2-yd TD run, Stanford goes ahead 30-27

Measured at Palo Alto Airport, 3.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Hawai'i · 9-4

Rated 59th in our preseason ratings.

W 35-31 vs California #83 of 667

won by 4 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 27-7 vs Wyoming #165 of 667

won by 20 as an 8.5-point favorite

L 10-38 @ UNLV #63 of 667

lost by 28 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 38-6 vs San Diego State #73 of 667

won by 32 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 38-45 @ San José State #107 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 31-19 @ Colorado State #118 of 667

won by 12 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 44-26 vs Utah State #119 of 667

won by 18 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 44-35 @ Air Force #154 of 667

won by 9 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 21-23 vs Fresno State #80 of 667

lost by 2 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 23-3 vs Portland State #235 of 667

won by 20 as a 36.5-point favorite

W 37-20 vs Sam Houston #135 of 667

won by 17 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 6-40 @ ArizonaTop 25 #82 of 667

lost by 34 as a 15.5-point underdog

W 23-20 vs Stanford #85 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Stanford · 4-8

Rated 97th in our preseason ratings.

L 20-49 vs Notre DameTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 29 as a 33.5-point underdog

W 31-10 vs California #101 of 667

won by 21 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 15-20 @ North Carolina #85 of 667

lost by 5 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 20-35 vs PittsburghTop 25 #37 of 667

lost by 15 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 7-42 @ MiamiTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 35 as a 28.5-point underdog

W 20-13 vs Florida StateTop 25 #36 of 667

won by 7 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 10-34 @ SMUTop 25 #26 of 667

lost by 24 as a 19.5-point underdog

W 30-29 vs San José State #104 of 667

won by 1 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 20-48 @ VirginiaTop 25 #49 of 667

lost by 28 as a 16.5-point underdog

W 30-20 vs Boston College #59 of 667

won by 10 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 3-27 @ BYUTop 25 #53 of 667

lost by 24 as a 20.5-point underdog

L 20-23 @ Hawai'i #152 of 667

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

Matchups

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Hawai'iStanford

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Stanford leads the series 4-1

5 meetings since 1946 · Hawai'i won the last meeting

2025Hawai'i 23-20
2023Stanford 37-24
1972Stanford 39-7
1949Stanford 74-20
1946Stanford 18-7

Each line is Stanford’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Stanford fans are in a better mood than Hawai'i fans (85th vs 75th among FBS fanbases), even with Hawai'i favored.

Stanford favored by 4.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Stanford by 4.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Stanford.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Stanford is worth +2.2 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 19th percentile.

33% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (15-30 home, 16-31 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 2,399 miles to get here.

The story going in

Stanford names Davis Warren starting QBAug 19, 2026

Last meeting in our History pages

Hawai'i 23, Stanford 20Aug 23, 2025

Stanford beats Hawai'i 37-27