The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Campbell 18%, Towson 36%
Win out 6% · expect 1.4 of 3 more wins
Elon's chance to win each game left, from our model: Hampton 92%, Campbell 18%, Towson 36%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Elijah Guttman 519 · Rushing Kamerin McDowell-Moore 1,182 · Receiving Kenaz McMillian 263 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Glenville State | W 42-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Stober 254 · Rush Williams 77 · Rec Kirsch 68 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Davidson | W 38-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Crews IV 108 · Rush McDowell-Moore 88 · Rec Alford 70 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Rhode Island | L 10-31 | 2-1 | 0-1 | Pass Crews IV 183 · Rush McDowell-Moore 117 · Rec Magazu 56 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Sacred Heart | W 24-21 | 3-1 | 1-1 | Pass Guttman 142 · Rush McDowell-Moore 75 · Rec Alford 62 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Maine | W 43-17 | 4-1 | 2-1 | Pass Guttman 179 · Rush McDowell-Moore 126 · Rec Magazu 57 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @New Hampshire | L 23-30 | 4-2 | 2-2 | Pass Guttman 192 · Rush McDowell-Moore 273 · Rec McMillian 93 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Wofford | L 0-16 | 4-3 | 2-2 | Pass Stober 40 · Rush McDowell-Moore 162 · Rec Hart 33 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Stanford | L 7-34 74 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Crews IV 52 · Rush McDowell-Moore 164 · Rec Backey 19 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @North Carolina A&T | L 10-13 | 4-5 | 2-3 | Pass Stober 100 · Rush McDowell-Moore 102 · Rec Winston 40 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Hampton | 2 pm ET92% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Campbell | 2 pm ET18% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Towson | 1 pm ET36% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Elon, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @North Carolina A&T | L 10-13 | — | — | — | −0.110 | 24.1% | 1.03 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @Stanford | L 7-34 | — | — | — | −0.048 | 30.2% | 1.39 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 10 | Wofford | L 0-16 | — | — | — | −0.551 | 30.5% | 0.74 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @New Hampshire | L 23-30 | — | — | — | −0.052 | 37.1% | 1.46 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | Maine | W 43-17 | — | — | — | +0.107 | 36.5% | 1.42 | |
| Sep 19 | Sacred Heart | W 24-21 | — | — | — | +0.223 | 39.3% | 1.35 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @Rhode Island | L 10-31 | — | — | — | −0.240 | 35.8% | 1.16 | |
| Sep 5 | @Davidson | W 38-0 | — | — | — | +0.136 | 50.8% | 1.06 | Best success rate |
| Aug 27 | Glenville State | W 42-7 | — | — | — | +0.234 | 49.4% | 1.23 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | −0.033 | 37.1% | 1.20 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last four.
Range of outcomes · Elon · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 4%; 5 wins 52%; 6 wins 38%; 7 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Coastal Athletic teams the same season
Elon is 4-5 and hosts Hampton next.
Elon is 4-5 and hosts Hampton next.
Range of outcomes · Elon · 2026