North Carolina A&T upsets Elon 13-10
Team pages: Elon · North Carolina A&T
North Carolina A&T beat Elon 13-10 as a 7.5-point underdog. Share this game
We had Elon favored. North Carolina A&T won.
Next: Elon vs Hampton, Sat Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET
Next: North Carolina A&T at Monmouth, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Stober sacked for a 7-yd loss, fumbles (Q4, 0:44). North Carolina A&T went from 65% to 91% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Carolina A&T a 47% chance, and the closing betting line (North Carolina A&T was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.
North Carolina A&T 13-10 Elon
North Carolina A&T wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Elon 10-13 North Carolina A&TElon lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 7:194th and 2Mcdowell-Moore 2-yd TD run, Elon goes ahead 10-3North Carolina A&T 33% → 18% (−15)
- 2Q4 0:44FumbleStober sacked for a 7-yd loss, fumblesNorth Carolina A&T 65% → 91% (+26)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 7:194th and 2Mcdowell-Moore 2-yd TD run, Elon goes ahead 10-3Elon 67% → 82% (+15)
- 2Q4 0:44FumbleStober sacked for a 7-yd loss, fumblesElon 35% → 9% (−26)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Elon -7.5), at 39% for North Carolina A&T (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
North Carolina A&T scored on 3 of its 11 drives; Elon on 2 of its 12.
North Carolina A&T’s drives are teal, Elon’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Elon’s side
Elon’s best moment: Mcdowell-Moore 2-yd TD run, Elon goes ahead 10-3 (Q3 7:19). It lifted Elon’s win chance by 15 points.
Too close to call on 73% of plays. The winner fell to 14%.
Box score
North Carolina A&T 13, Elon 10
North Carolina A&T covered +7.5 by 10.5. The total, 23, stayed under 45.5.
Elon leaders
- Passing Brady Stober 9 of 16, 100 yds
- Rushing Kamerin McDowell-Moore 25 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Landyn Backey 1 for 1 yds
- Receiving Zimere Winston 3 for 40 yds; Alex Voss 1 for 36 yds
North Carolina A&T leaders
- Passing Kevin White 11 of 23, 94 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Kevin White 14 for 97 yds; J.T. Smith Jr. 13 for 50 yds
- Receiving Jayvonne Dillard 2 for 23 yds, 1 TD; Cortez Lane 1 for 21 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Elon · 4-4
Rated 215th in our preseason ratings, 234th now.
Three straight losses.
L 7-34 @ Stanford No. 133 of 668 teams
lost by 27 as a 33.5-point underdog
L 0-16 vs Wofford No. 181 of 668 teams
lost by 16 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 23-30 @ New Hampshire No. 230 of 668 teams
lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 43-17 vs Maine No. 227 of 668 teams
won by 26 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 24-21 vs Sacred Heart No. 213 of 668 teams
won by 3 as an 11.5-point favorite
L 10-31 @ Rhode Island No. 104 of 668 teams
lost by 21 as an 8.5-point underdog
W 38-0 @ Davidson No. 257 of 668 teams
won by 38 as a 32.5-point favorite
W 42-7 vs Glenville State No. 365 of 668 teams
Last three games
North Carolina A&T · 3-5
Rated 263rd in our preseason ratings, 249th now, up 14 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over New Hampshire as a 5.5-point underdog.
W 30-27 vs New Hampshire No. 232 of 668 teams
won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog
W 22-18 vs Rhode Island No. 136 of 668 teams
won by 4 as a 24.5-point underdog
Week by week
North Carolina A&T
- Wk 3Lat Campbell14-42
- Wk 4Wvs Rhode Island22-18
- Wk 5Lat Bryant30-31
- Wk 6Wvs New Hampshire30-27
- Wk 7Wvs Chicago State27-12
Elon
- Wk 3Wvs Sacred Heart24-21
- Wk 4Wvs Maine43-17
- Wk 5Lat New Hampshire23-30
- Wk 6Lvs Wofford0-16
- Wk 7Lat Stanford7-34
Power rating by week
Elon is rated 1.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
North Carolina A&T leads the series 6-5
11 meetings since 2003 · Elon has won the last 3
- 2025Elon 55-17
- 2024Elon 31-21
- 2023Elon 27-3
- 2019North Carolina A&T 24-21
- 2015North Carolina A&T 14-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on North Carolina A&T’s chances here.
Elon favored by 7.5 · Total 45.5
How games like this usually go
Elon by 7.5, on the usual path until Q3 0:31
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward North Carolina A&T.
Spread: +10.5 → +7.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
North Carolina A&T has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.2 points, home against road — 2nd percentile of FBS.
0% at home, 9% on the road against FBS opponents (0-1 home, 1-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.5 at home vs. away over 50 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 15 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- North Carolina A&T7th2-2
- Elon8th2-2