The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jeff Hafley

Followed Steve Addazio. Jeff Hafley held Boston College at National Program III for 4 seasons.

22–26

2020–2023 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Boston College, 4 seasons

−4.7

National Program III → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Boston College15.8pt#42 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

Winless in 3 tries against Dabo Swinney.

One-score games

9–9

50.0% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–3

0.0%

The toughest matchup

vs. Dabo Swinney0–3

3 meetings, 2020–2022

’20 L · blew a 18-pt lead’21 L’22 L

0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–3 0.0%

Power Program

0–9 0.0%

National Program

9–8 52.9%

Regional Program

6–6 50.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.03

#171 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.18

#261 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2020–2023

Boston Collegecaretaker

National Program III → National Program III

Jeff Hafley held Boston College at National Program III for 4 seasons.

17th-best Boston College tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-8.2 pts

#145 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-18.6 pts

#171 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Steve Addazio (2013–2019) · succeeded by Bill O'Brien (2024–2026).

Season	2020	2021	2022	2023
Record & result
Record	6–5	6–6	3–9	7–6
Postseason	—	—	—	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#63	#36	#40	#61
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	51.9	39.0	54.8	39.8
Coordinators
OC	Frank Cignetti	Frank Cignetti	John McNulty	Steve Shimko
DC	Tem Lukabu	Tem Lukabu	Tem Lukabu	Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Sean Duggan
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	68	26	23	63
Defense	16	67	38	18
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	45.1	30.4	51.6	35.5
Red-zone pass%	52.6	30.8	54.5	33.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	38.7	37.8	23.3	55.3

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-20

#157 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 247 lbs

across 14 of 19 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+5.0 lbs

#95 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · more than most

Top states: PA (3), FL (2), NJ (2), GA (2), MA (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

51.8

position-weighted

Talent lost

55.2

position-weighted

Net

-3.4

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Thomas Castellanos (QB) from UCF

Biggest loss: Phil Jurkovec (QB) to Pittsburgh

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Frank Cignetti → John McNulty · 2022

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 30.4% → 51.6% (+21.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: John McNulty → Steve Shimko · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 51.6% → 35.5% (-16.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 37% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Tem Lukabu → co-Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / co-Sean Duggan · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

225 lbs

6′3″ avg · #78 of 767 · more than most

Running back

207 lbs

5′9″ avg · #419 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

187 lbs

6′0″ avg · #632 of 791 · less than most

Tight end

249 lbs

6′5″ avg · #212 of 731 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

313 lbs

6′6″ avg · #222 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

287 lbs

6′3″ avg · #318 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

228 lbs

6′0″ avg · #384 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

192 lbs

6′0″ avg · #304 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows K from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Safety from high school

75%

#165 of 218 stints

Postseason detail2023: Beat SMU 23–14 Wasabi Fenway Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: AJ Dillon (2020), Hunter Long (2021), Isaiah McDuffie (2021), Zion Johnson (2022), Zay Flowers (2023), Elijah Jones (2024), Christian Mahogany (2024)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Zion Johnson (2021)

22–26