The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Lance Leipold

Followed Les Miles. Lance Leipold raised Kansas from Regional Program V to Regional Program I.

The builder
64–68
2015–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

The one thing about the parity in this conference that kind of goes through with the balance is we’ve seen the years – the 2021 season, where was Baylor before they won the league in the preseason?
I think it’s unity for both programs, for this conference
Heartland College Sports
From the first guy that steps on the field to the next guy, the gap there’s the least its ever been in our time
Heartland College Sports

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Buffalo, 6 seasons
+0.6
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III.
Kansas, 6 seasons (active)
+16.3
Regional Program V → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%Buffalo2015–2020▼ 17.6ptKansas2021–2026▼ 3.1pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Buffalo22.0pt#4 of 258 · more than most
Kansas7.0pt#193 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–9 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Chris Klieman.

Rivalry record
4–9
30.8% · 3 rivals
One-score games
15–23
39.5% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$22,930,000 (est.)
bigger than 70% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Akron4–267%
Missouri0–20%
The toughest matchup
vs. Chris Klieman0–5
5 meetings, 2021–2025
’21 L’22 L’23 L · blew a 11-pt lead’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead’25 L · blew a 7-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 5-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
3–18 14.3%
National Program
16–18 47.1%
Regional Program
32–27 54.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.48
#26 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.19
#262 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

coaching decisionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes the coaching staff is making poor in-game decisions

To start every single referee that worked this game needs to be investigated. With that being said, this loss still falls heavily on the coaching staff and specifically on leipold.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Nov 9, 2025 · via CFB

Coaching career

2021–now
Kansasbuilder
Regional Program V → Regional Program I
Lance Leipold raised Kansas from Regional Program V to Regional Program I.

11th-best Kansas tenure of 21 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+23.0 pts
#27 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-33.6 pts
#202 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Les Miles (2019–2020).

Season202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record2–106–79–45–75–70–0
PostseasonL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#52#114#73#43#72#61
Style — pass rate
Pass rate42.245.438.440.344.739.2
Coordinators
OCAndy KotelnickiAndy KotelnickiAndy Kotelnicki / Jim ZebrowskiJeff Grimes / Jim ZebrowskiJim Zebrowski / Matt LubickJim Zebrowski / Matt Lubick
DCBrian BorlandBrian BorlandBrian BorlandBrian Borland / D. K. McDonaldD. K. McDonaldD. K. McDonald
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense219197946884
Defense1345291184
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%35.344.933.740.638.037.0
Red-zone pass%35.840.333.027.333.035.7
4th-down go%opp. territory41.244.738.232.144.8
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
109
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
120
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-11
#50 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 244 lbs
across 94 of 109 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.0 lbs
#60 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#97 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: TX (11), MI (7), OH (7), FL (7), KS (6)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.0
position-weighted
Net
-0.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Chase Jenkins (QB) from Rice
Biggest loss: David McComb (QB) to Miami (OH)
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Andy Kotelnicki → Andy Kotelnicki / co-Jim Zebrowski · 2023
91st pct97th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 44.9% → 33.7% (-11.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 100% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Andy Kotelnicki / co-Jim Zebrowski → Jeff Grimes / co-Jim Zebrowski · 2024
97th pct94th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 33.7% → 40.6% (+6.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Jeff Grimes / co-Jim Zebrowski → Jim Zebrowski / co-Matt Lubick · 2025
94th pct68th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 40.6% → 38.0% (-2.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 41% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Brian Borland → Brian Borland / co-D. K. McDonald · 2024
45th pct29th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Brian Borland / co-D. K. McDonald → D. K. McDonald · 2025
29th pct11th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
214 lbs
6′1″ avg · #350 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
212 lbs
5′11″ avg · #197 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
195 lbs
6′1″ avg · #302 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
254 lbs
6′3″ avg · #85 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
311 lbs
6′5″ avg · #302 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
293 lbs
6′3″ avg · #195 of 753 · a typical amount
Edge
247 lbs
6′4″ avg · #139 of 188 · a typical amount
Linebacker
225 lbs
6′2″ avg · #545 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
187 lbs
6′0″ avg · #524 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
195 lbs
6′1″ avg · #212 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys K via the portal
100%
#1 of 56 stints
Buys Interior line via the portal
75%
#15 of 224 stints
Grows Quarterback from high school
75%
#164 of 206 stints
Postseason detail2022: Lost to Arkansas 53–55 AutoZone Liberty Bowl2023: Beat UNLV 49–36 Guaranteed Rate Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Kyron Johnson (2022), Dominick Puni (2024), Austin Booker (2024), Devin Neal (2025), Bryce Cabeldue (2025), Enrique Cruz Jr. (2026), Emmanuel Henderson Jr. (2026)

AI Narratives — “Kansas's 2025 season ends on a three-game skid” and 2 more on the team page.

27–35
2015–2020
Buffalocaretaker🏆 coach of the year
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III
Lance Leipold moved Buffalo from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 6 seasons.

4th-best Buffalo tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+26.0 pts
#19 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+19.4 pts
#31 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jeff Quinn (2010–2014) · succeeded by Maurice Linguist (2021–2024).

Season201520162017201820192020Trend
Record & result
Record5–72–106–610–48–56–1
PostseasonL bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#118#118#113#130#106#128
Style — pass rate
Pass rate51.748.248.341.729.734.1
Coordinators
OCAndy KotelnickiAndy KotelnickiAndy KotelnickiAndy KotelnickiAndy KotelnickiAndy Kotelnicki / Jim Zebrowski
DCBrian BorlandBrian BorlandBrian BorlandBrian BorlandBrian BorlandBrian Borland / Chris Simpson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense341367807596
Defense554537378672
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%51.043.742.341.031.736.7
Red-zone pass%54.338.536.532.221.918.3
4th-down go%opp. territory33.329.510.861.039.168.8
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Andy Kotelnicki → Andy Kotelnicki / co-Jim Zebrowski · 2020
75th pct96th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 31.7% → 36.7% (+4.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 100% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Brian Borland → Brian Borland / co-Chris Simpson · 2020
86th pct72nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2018: Lost to Troy 32–42 Dollar General Bowl2019: Beat Charlotte 31–9 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl2020: Beat Marshall 17–10 Camellia Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Kristjan Sokoli (2015), Mason Schreck (2017), Malcolm Koonce (2021)

Coach of the Year: MAC Coach of the Year (2020)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Jaret Patterson (2020)

37–33