The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jonathan Smith

Followed Gary Andersen. Jonathan Smith moved Oregon State from Regional Program I to National Program II in 6 seasons.

43–50

2018–now · 2 stints

Oregon State Michigan State

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In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 5th career season — faster than 14% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #547 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Oregon State, 6 seasons

+4.0

Regional Program II → National Program II.

Michigan State, 2 seasons (active)

−4.1

National Program II → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Oregon State12.4pt#83 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2–3 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Kyle Whittingham.

Rivalry record

2–3

40.0% · 2 rivals

One-score games

11–14

44.0% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–2

0.0%

Buyout owed

$33,033,125

bigger than 80% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

Oregon2–250%

Michigan0–10%

The toughest matchup

vs. Kyle Whittingham1–3

4 meetings, 2019–2022

’19 L’20 L’21 W · erased a 14-pt deficit’22 L

25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–2 0.0%

Power Program

7–19 26.9%

National Program

13–12 52.0%

Regional Program

3–7 30.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.17

#89 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.21

#267 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2024–now

Michigan State

too new to grade yet

15th-best Michigan State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-28.4 pts

#198 of 208 · less than most

Defense vs. talent

-15.2 pts

#164 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mel Tucker (2020–2023).

Season	2024	2025
Record & result
Record	5–7	4–8
Postseason	—	—
Recruiting rank	#42	#57
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	47.6	49.3
Coordinators
OC	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren
DC	Joe Rossi	Joe Rossi
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	24	32
Defense	41	41
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	47.2	43.3
Red-zone pass%	42.0	38.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	40.0	50.0

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-22

#28 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Aidan Chiles On3 modeled · $1,200,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 232 lbs

across 37 of 47 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+2.1 lbs

#179 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#117 of 255 · a typical amount

Top states: MI (8), GA (3), FL (2), WA (2), PA (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

60.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

59.0

position-weighted

Net

+1.4

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Aidan Chiles (QB) from Oregon State

Biggest loss: Sam Leavitt (QB) to Arizona State

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

221 lbs

6′2″ avg · #153 of 767 · more than most

Running back

218 lbs

5′11″ avg · #83 of 791 · more than most

Wide receiver

194 lbs

6′1″ avg · #362 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

249 lbs

6′5″ avg · #210 of 731 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

306 lbs

6′5″ avg · #517 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

282 lbs

6′3″ avg · #420 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

233 lbs

6′2″ avg · #191 of 772 · more than most

Cornerback

189 lbs

6′1″ avg · #435 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Edge via the portal

78%

#21 of 208 stints

Buys D-line via the portal

62%

#47 of 239 stints

Grows Running back from high school

78%

#177 of 208 stints

4 NFL Draft picks: Nick Samac (2024), Luke Newman (2025), Matt Gulbin (2026), Ryan Eckley (2026)

9–15

2018–2023

Oregon Statecaretaker

Regional Program I → National Program II

Jonathan Smith moved Oregon State from Regional Program I to National Program II in 6 seasons.

7th-best Oregon State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+14.5 pts

#50 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

-16.4 pts

#167 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Gary Andersen (2015–2017) · succeeded by Trent Bray (2024–2025).

Season	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Record & result
Record	2–10	5–7	2–5	7–6	10–3	8–4
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#70	#66	#53	#107	#56	#49
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	47.0	50.5	47.5	40.0	38.2	46.1
Coordinators
OC	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren
DC	Tim Tibesar	Tim Tibesar	Tim Tibesar	Tim Tibesar	Trent Bray	Trent Bray
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	28	67	72	93	65	74
Defense	1	31	5	27	90	61
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	44.1	50.7	51.7	38.9	37.8	42.1
Red-zone pass%	39.3	37.2	28.8	25.2	26.8	35.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	51.1	50.0	52.4	41.4	43.6	48.5

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-18

#167 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 240 lbs

across 9 of 15 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+6.1 lbs

#60 of 255 · more than most

Avg. class year

#12 of 255 · more than most

Top states: OR (2), CA (2), WI (1), FL (1), LA (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

49.8

position-weighted

Talent lost

53.9

position-weighted

Net

-4.1

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: DJ Uiagalelei (QB) from Clemson

Biggest loss: Sam Vidlak (QB) to Boise State

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

219 lbs

6′3″ avg · #186 of 767 · more than most

Running back

217 lbs

5′11″ avg · #100 of 791 · more than most

Wide receiver

180 lbs

5′11″ avg · #768 of 791 · less than most

Tight end

251 lbs

6′5″ avg · #166 of 731 · more than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

305 lbs

6′4″ avg · #566 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

290 lbs

6′2″ avg · #256 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

238 lbs

6′2″ avg · #56 of 772 · more than most

Cornerback

194 lbs

6′1″ avg · #154 of 771 · more than most

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

90%

#163 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

78%

#173 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2021: Lost to Utah State 13–24 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel2022: Beat Florida 30–3 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl2023: Lost to Notre Dame 8–40 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Jake Luton (2020), Blake Brandel (2020), Isaiah Hodgins (2020), Nahshon Wright (2021), Jermar Jefferson (2021), Teagan Quitoriano (2022), Luke Musgrave (2023), Alex Austin (2023) + 3 more

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Anthony Gould (2022), Taliese Fuaga (2023)

34–35