Oregon State: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2026–now

JaMarcus Shephard Short tenure

Averaged a 60% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

5-3

2025

Robb Akey Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

2-3

2024–2025

Trent Bray Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

5-14

2023

Kefense Hynson Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

0-1

2018–2023

Jonathan Smith Steady

Jonathan Smith moved Oregon State from Regional Program I to National Program II in 6 seasons.

2018 defense ranked in the 1th percentile nationally — historically bad

+4.0 pts over 6 seasons · top 40% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bobby Johnson’s Vanderbilt run (2002–2009)

7th-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Cory Hall (2017) · succeeded by Trent Bray (2024–2025).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Record & result
Record	2-10	5-7	2-5	7-6	10-3	8-4
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#70	#66	#53	#107	#56	#49
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	47.0	50.5	47.5	40.0	38.2	46.1
Coordinators
OC	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren	Brian Lindgren
DC	Tim Tibesar	Tim Tibesar	Tim Tibesar	Tim Tibesar	Trent Bray	Trent Bray
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	28	67	71	85	65	74
Defense	1	31	5	34	90	61
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	44.1	50.7	51.7	38.9	37.8	42.1
Red-zone pass%	39.3	37.2	28.8	25.2	26.8	35.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	51.1	50.0	52.4	41.4	43.6	48.5

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+12.9 pts

#56 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-15.2 pts

#166 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-18

#167 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 240 lbs

across 9 of 15 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+6.1 lbs

#64 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: OR (2), CA (2), WI (1), FL (1), LA (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

49.8

position-weighted

Talent lost

53.9

position-weighted

Net

-4.1

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: DJ Uiagalelei (QB) from Clemson

Biggest loss: Sam Vidlak (QB) to Boise State

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

219 lbs

6′3″ avg · #186 of 767 · top quarter

Running back

217 lbs

5′11″ avg · #100 of 791 · top quarter

Wide receiver

180 lbs

5′11″ avg · #768 of 791 · bottom quarter

Tight end

251 lbs

6′5″ avg · #166 of 731 · top quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

305 lbs

6′4″ avg · #566 of 779 · middle half

D-line

290 lbs

6′2″ avg · #256 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

238 lbs

6′2″ avg · #56 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

194 lbs

6′1″ avg · #154 of 771 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

90%

#163 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

78%

#173 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2021: Lost to Utah State 13-24 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel2022: Beat Florida 30-3 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Jake Luton (2020), Blake Brandel (2020), Isaiah Hodgins (2020), Nahshon Wright (2021), Jermar Jefferson (2021), Teagan Quitoriano (2022), Luke Musgrave (2023), Alex Austin (2023) + 3 more

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Anthony Gould (2022), Taliese Fuaga (2023)

+4.0

34-35

2017

Cory Hall Short tenure

2017 defense ranked in the 3th percentile nationally — historically bad

0-6

2015–2017

Gary Andersen Steady

Gary Andersen slid the Beavers from National Program II to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.

2017 defense ranked in the 3th percentile nationally — historically bad

−11.6 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 8% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Norm Chow’s Hawai'i run (2012–2015)

8th-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Riley (2003–2014) · succeeded by Cory Hall (2017).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2015	2016	2017
Record & result
Record	2-10	4-8	1-5
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#61	#58	#51
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	43.5	44.4	46.8
Coordinators
OC	Dave Baldwin	Kevin McGiven / T. J. Woods	Kevin McGiven / T. J. Woods
DC	Kalani Sitake	Kevin Clune	Kevin Clune
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	24	38	22
Defense	14	67	3
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	39.1	36.2	40.2
Red-zone pass%	36.8	35.9	28.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	26.5	21.9	7.4

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-23.4 pts

#184 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-23.5 pts

#183 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Dave Baldwin → Kevin McGiven (co) / T. J. Woods (co) · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 39.1% → 36.2% (-2.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 92% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Kalani Sitake → Kevin Clune · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Isaac Seumalo (2016), Sean Harlow (2017), Treston Decoud (2017)

−11.6

7-23

1997–1998, 2003–2014

Mike Riley Steady

Mike Riley moved the Beavers from Regional Program IV to Power Program III in 14 seasons.

Swung 19.0 points of pass rate — #41 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

+8.0 pts over 14 seasons · bottom 33% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: James Franklin’s Penn State run (2014–2025)

1st-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Jerry Pettibone (1991–1996) · succeeded by Dennis Erickson (1999–2002) · returned in 2003 · succeeded by Gary Andersen (2015–2017).

System Shift, on departure

Season	1997	1998	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Record & result
Record	3-8	5-6	8-5	7-5	5-6	10-4	9-4	9-4	8-5	5-7	3-9	9-4	7-6	5-7
Postseason	—	—	W bowl	W bowl	—	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—	—	L bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	#26	#45	#34	#40	#55	#51	#62	#42	#44	#45	#60
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	58.5	52.5	47.3	44.7	47.9	52.1	49.4	61.3	53.3	63.8	55.7
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	John Garrett
DC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Mark Banker
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	36	51	84	20	70	82	30	59	63	73	36
Defense	—	—	—	96	57	43	100	80	40	27	25	67	12	15
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	49.7	44.3	47.1	35.8	37.6	35.6	35.4	48.0	47.8	61.1	50.9
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	57.4	32.9	37.2	34.3	46.3	41.2	38.6	42.5	52.7	68.8	52.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	44.4	14.7	25.0	15.6	16.3	27.1	20.0	26.5	34.0	35.7	26.3

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2003: Beat New Mexico 55-14 Bowl2004: Beat Notre Dame 38-21 Bowl2006: Beat Missouri 39-38 Bowl2007: Beat Maryland 21-14 Bowl2008: Beat Pittsburgh 3-0 Bowl2009: Lost to BYU 20-44 Bowl2012: Lost to Texas 27-31 Valero Alamo Bowl2013: Beat Boise State 38-23 Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl

37 NFL Draft picks: Bryan Jones (1999), Armon Hatcher (1999), Tim Alexander (1999), Steven Jackson (2004), Dwan Edwards (2004), Tim Euhus (2004), Richard Seigler (2004), Bill Swancutt (2005) + 29 more

+8.0

93-80

1999–2002

Dennis Erickson Builder

Dennis Erickson raised the Beavers from Regional Program III to National Program II.

+20.9 pts over 4 seasons · top 1% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Chip Kelly’s Oregon run (2009–2012)

4th-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Riley (1997–1998) · succeeded by Mike Riley (2003–2014).

Season	1999	2000	2001	2002
Record & result
Record	7-5	11-1	5-6	8-5
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1999: Lost to Hawai'i 17-23 Bowl2000: Beat Notre Dame 41-9 Bowl2002: Lost to Pittsburgh 13-38 Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Chad Johnson (2001), DeLawrence Grant (2001), Mitch White (2001), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (2001), James Allen (2002), Nick Barnett (2003), Dennis Weathersby (2003), James Lee (2003)

+20.9

31-17

1991–1996

Jerry Pettibone Steady

Jerry Pettibone held the Beavers at Regional Program IV for 6 seasons.

+3.4 pts over 6 seasons · top 45% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bobby Wallace’s Temple run (1998–2005)

10th-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Dave Kragthorpe (1985–1990) · succeeded by Mike Riley (1997–1998).

1 NFL Draft pick: Alai Kalaniuvalu (1994)

+3.4

13-52-1

1985–1990

Dave Kragthorpe Steady

Dave Kragthorpe moved the Beavers from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 6 seasons.

+3.8 pts over 6 seasons · top 41% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jim Colletto’s Purdue run (1991–1996)

12th-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Joe Avezzano (1980–1984) · succeeded by Jerry Pettibone (1991–1996).

4 NFL Draft picks: Erik Wilhelm (1989), Robb Thomas (1989), Pat Chaffey (1990), Esera Tuaolo (1991)

+3.8

17-48-2

1980–1984

Joe Avezzano Steady

Joe Avezzano slid Oregon State from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 5 seasons.

−10.1 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 13% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tim Brewster’s Minnesota run (2007–2010)

11th-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Craig Fertig (1976–1979) · succeeded by Dave Kragthorpe (1985–1990).

1 NFL Draft pick: Victor Simmons (1982)

−10.1

6-47-2

1976–1979

Craig Fertig Steady

Craig Fertig slid Oregon State from Regional Program I to Regional Program III in 4 seasons.

−7.9 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 21% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin run (2022–now)

9th-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Dee Andros (1965–1975) · succeeded by Joe Avezzano (1980–1984).

3 NFL Draft picks: Dennis Boyd (1977), Greg Marshall (1978), Jerry Wilkinson (1979)

−7.9

8-36-1

1965–1975

Dee Andros Steady

Dee Andros moved the Beavers from National Program II to National Program I in 11 seasons.

−9.6 pts over 11 seasons · bottom 3% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rick Stockstill’s Middle Tennessee run (2006–2023)

2nd-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Tommy Prothro (1955–1964) · succeeded by Craig Fertig (1976–1979).

13 NFL Draft picks: Bob Grim (1967), Rockne Freitas (1967), Skip Vanderbundt (1968), Bill Enyart (1969), Jon Sandstrom (1969), John Didion (1969), Mel Easley (1970), Bill Nelson (1970) + 5 more

−9.6

51-64-1

1955–1964

Tommy Prothro Builder

Tommy Prothro raised the Beavers from Regional Program III to National Program II.

+16.8 pts over 10 seasons · top 32% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Monken’s Army run (2014–now)

5th-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Kip Taylor (1949–1954) · succeeded by Dee Andros (1965–1975).

+16.8

63-37-2

1949–1954

Kip Taylor Steady

Kip Taylor slid the Beavers from National Program II to Regional Program III in 6 seasons.

−8.9 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 8% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike London’s Virginia run (2010–2015)

6th-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Lon Stiner (1945–1948) · succeeded by Tommy Prothro (1955–1964).

−8.9

20-36

1936–1942, 1945–1948

Lon Stiner Steady

Lon Stiner held Oregon State at National Program I for 11 seasons.

3rd-best Oregon State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Kip Taylor (1949–1954).

National Program I

59-37-12