The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Gary Andersen

Followed Mike Riley. Gary Andersen held Oregon State at National Program II for 3 seasons.

Peak, then fade
59–63
2009–2017 · 3 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerUTAH STATEWISCONSINOREGON STATEBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUtah State, 2009: 4-8, Regional Program V2009Utah State, 2010: 4-8, Regional Program V2010Utah State, 2011: 7-6, Regional Program IV2011Utah State, 2012: 11-2, Regional Program III2012Utah State, 2019: 7-6, Regional Program I2019Utah State, 2020: 0-3, Regional Program II2020+13.4Wisconsin, 2013: 9-4, Power Program I2013Wisconsin, 2014: 10-3, Power Program I2014-0.4Oregon State, 2015: 2-10, National Program II2015Oregon State, 2016: 4-8, National Program III2016Oregon State, 2017: 1-5, Regional Program I2017-11.6One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 7th career season — faster than 21% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #297 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Utah State, 6 seasons
+13.4
Regional Program V → Regional Program II.
Wisconsin, 2 seasons
−0.4
Power Program I → Power Program I.
Oregon State, 3 seasons
−11.6
National Program II → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%Utah State2009–2020▼ 5.4ptWisconsin2013–2014– 0.0ptOregon State2015–2017▲ 3.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Oregon State3.4pt#242 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–5 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Chris Petersen.

Rivalry record
4–5
44.4% · 4 rivals
One-score games
13–19
40.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–3
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
BYU1–420%
Oregon1–150%
Iowa1–0100%
Minnesota1–0100%
The toughest matchup
4 meetings, 2009–2016
’09 L’10 L’15 L’16 L
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–3 0.0%
Power Program
5–20 20.0%
National Program
7–11 38.9%
Regional Program
25–16 61.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.29
#257 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.24
#279 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2015–2017
Oregon Statecaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Gary Andersen held Oregon State at National Program II for 3 seasons.

9th-best Oregon State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-23.4 pts
#183 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-23.6 pts
#184 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Riley (1997–2014) · succeeded by Jonathan Smith (2018–2023).

Season201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record2–104–80–6
Postseason
Recruiting rank#61#58#51
Style — pass rate
Pass rate43.544.446.8
Coordinators
OCDave BaldwinKevin McGiven / T. J. WoodsKevin McGiven / T. J. Woods
DCKalani SitakeKevin CluneKevin Clune
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense243822
Defense14673
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%39.136.240.2
Red-zone pass%36.835.928.3
4th-down go%opp. territory26.521.97.4
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Dave Baldwin → co-Kevin McGiven / co-T. J. Woods · 2016
24th pct38th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.1% → 36.2% (-2.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 92% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Kalani Sitake → Kevin Clune · 2016
14th pct67th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints

8 NFL Draft picks: Sean Mannion (2015), Steven Nelson (2015), D.J. Alexander (2015), Obum Gwacham (2015), Ryan Smith-Murphy (2015), Isaac Seumalo (2016), Sean Harlow (2017), Treston Decoud (2017)

7–23
2013–2014
Wisconsininheritor
Power Program I → Power Program I
Gary Andersen inherited a Power Program I Wisconsin and won with it.

3rd-best Wisconsin tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Bret Bielema (2006–2012) · succeeded by Paul Chryst (2015–2022).

Season20132014Trend
Record & result
Record9–410–3
PostseasonW bowl
Recruiting rank#32
Style — pass rate
Pass rate33.2
Coordinators
OCAndy Ludwig
DCDave Aranda
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense86
Defense63
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%32.9
Red-zone pass%30.5
4th-down go%opp. territory29.3
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Auburn 34–31 Outback Bowl

10 NFL Draft picks: Travis Frederick (2013), Montee Ball (2013), Ricky Wagner (2013), Dez Southward (2014), Chris Borland (2014), James White (2014), Jared Abbrederis (2014), Beau Allen (2014) + 2 more

19–7
2009–2020
Utah Statebuilderborderline
Regional Program V → Regional Program I
Gary Andersen raised Utah State from Regional Program V to Regional Program I.

10th-best Utah State tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+0.3 pts
#112 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+17.9 pts
#36 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Brent Guy (2005–2008) · succeeded by Blake Anderson (2021–2024).

Season200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Trend
Record & result
Record4–84–87–611–29–510–46–73–96–710–27–61–2
PostseasonW bowlL bowlCFP lossW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#110#96#92#104#109#90#117
Style — pass rate
Pass rate43.245.648.247.349.552.246.8
Coordinators
OCKevin McGivenJosh HeupelJovon Bouknight / Luke WellsDavid YostDavid YostMike SanfordBodie Reeder
DCTodd OrlandoKevin CluneFrank Maile / Kendrick ShaverFrank Maile / Kendrick ShaverFrank Maile / Keith PattersonJustin EnaStacy Collins / Frank Maile
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense5945392194374
Defense89686187933014
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%38.546.438.743.650.646.931.9
Red-zone pass%29.438.932.950.033.644.840.0
4th-down go%opp. territory9.829.222.727.718.217.520.0
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Kevin McGiven → Josh Heupel · 2015
59th pct45th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 38.5% → 46.4% (+7.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 49% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Josh Heupel → co-Jovon Bouknight / co-Luke Wells · 2016
45th pct39th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.4% → 38.7% (-7.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Jovon Bouknight / co-Luke Wells → David Yost · 2017
39th pct21st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 38.7% → 43.6% (+4.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Todd Orlando → Kevin Clune · 2015
89th pct68th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Kevin Clune → co-Frank Maile / co-Kendrick Shaver · 2016
68th pct61st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
100%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat UTEP 21–6 Gildan New Mexico Bowl2015: Lost to Akron 21–23 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2017: Lost to New Mexico State 20–26 CFP2018: Beat North Texas 52–13 New Mexico Bowl Presented By Progressive2019: Lost to Kent State 41–51 Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

13 NFL Draft picks: Curtis Marsh (2011), Bobby Wagner (2012), Robert Turbin (2012), Michael Smith (2012), Will Davis (2013), Kerwynn Williams (2013), Maurice Alexander (2014), Nevin Lawson (2014) + 5 more

33–33

Defining games during this era

2014 Big Ten Championship · Ohio State 59, Wisconsin 0