The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Mike Riley

Followed Bo Pelini. Mike Riley inherited a Power Program I Nebraska and won with it.

The builder
112–99
1997–2017 · 2 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 8th career season — faster than 16% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #314 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Oregon State, 14 seasons
+28.8
Regional Program IV → National Program II.
Nebraska, 3 seasons
−8.3
Power Program II → Power Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Oregon State1997–2014– 0.0ptNebraska2015–2017▲ 7.5pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Nebraska12.2pt#90 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–16 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Chip Kelly.

Rivalry record
4–16
20.0% · 3 rivals
One-score games
41–37
52.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Oregon4–1029%
Wisconsin0–30%
Iowa0–30%
The toughest matchup
vs. Chip Kelly0–4
4 meetings, 2009–2012
’09 L’10 L’11 L’12 L
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
3–8 27.3%
Power Program
18–50 26.5%
National Program
47–29 61.8%
Regional Program
31–6 83.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.09
#196 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.33
#302 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2015–2017
Nebraskainheritor
Power Program I → Power Program II
Mike Riley inherited a Power Program I Nebraska and won with it.

7th-best Nebraska tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-17.5 pts
#171 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-27.7 pts
#194 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Bo Pelini (2003–2014) · succeeded by Scott Frost (2018–2022).

Season201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record6–79–44–8
PostseasonW bowlCFP loss
Recruiting rank#30#26#23
Style — pass rate
Pass rate48.043.355.5
Coordinators
OCDanny LangsdorfDanny LangsdorfDanny Langsdorf
DCMark BankerMark BankerBob Diaco
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense682037
Defense40494
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%35.524.942.8
Red-zone pass%42.732.751.0
4th-down go%opp. territory17.927.338.5
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Mark Banker → Bob Diaco · 2017
49th pct4th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat UCLA 37–29 Foster Farms Bowl2016: Lost to Tennessee 24–38 CFP

9 NFL Draft picks: Ameer Abdullah (2015), Randy Gregory (2015), Kenny Bell (2015), Maliek Collins (2016), Vincent Valentine (2016), Alex Lewis (2016), Andy Janovich (2016), Nathan Gerry (2017) + 1 more

19–19
1997–2014
Oregon Statebuilder
Regional Program IV → Power Program III
Mike Riley raised Oregon State from Regional Program IV to Power Program III.

1st-best Oregon State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Jerry Pettibone (1991–1996) · succeeded by Gary Andersen (2015–2017).

Season199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014Trend
Record & result
Record3–85–67–511–15–68–58–57–55–610–49–49–48–55–73–99–47–65–7
Postseason
Recruiting rank#60
Style — pass rate
Pass rate55.7
Coordinators
OCJohn Garrett
DCMark Banker
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense36
Defense15
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%50.9
Red-zone pass%52.8
4th-down go%opp. territory26.3
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

45 NFL Draft picks: Bryan Jones (1999), Armon Hatcher (1999), Tim Alexander (1999), Chad Johnson (2001), DeLawrence Grant (2001), Mitch White (2001), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (2001), James Allen (2002) + 37 more

93–80