The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Nick Rolovich

Followed Mike Leach. Nick Rolovich held Washington State at National Program III for 2 seasons.

The ascent
34–34
2016–now · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerHAWAI'IWASHINGTON STATECALIFORNIANational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelHawai'i, 2016: 7-7, Regional Program IV2016Hawai'i, 2017: 3-9, Regional Program IV2017Hawai'i, 2018: 8-6, Regional Program IV2018Hawai'i, 2019: 10-5, Regional Program IV2019+0.1Washington State, 2020: 1-3, National Program III2020Washington State, 2021: 4-3, National Program III2021-1.1California, 2025: 1-1, National Program III2025+0.0One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 5th career season — faster than 14% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #547 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Hawai'i, 4 seasons
+0.1
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.
Washington State, 2 seasons
−1.1
National Program III → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%60%Hawai'i2016–2019▲ 12.3ptWashington State2020–2021▼ 5.1ptCalifornia2025–2025– 0.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Hawai'i12.3pt#87 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2–2 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Bryan Harsin.

Rivalry record
2–2
50.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
12–6
66.7% · margin ≤8
Rivalry ledger
UNLV2–250%
The toughest matchup
vs. Bryan Harsin0–3
3 meetings, 2016–2019
’16 L’19 L’19 L · blew a 3-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0–8 0.0%
National Program
4–9 30.8%
Regional Program
20–11 64.5%

Coaching career

2025–now
California
too new to grade yet

18th-best California tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+0.7 pts
#109 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-29.1 pts
#197 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
36
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
34
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+2
#5 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele On3 modeled · $3,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 236 lbs
across 30 of 36 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.9 lbs
#126 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#252 of 255 · less than most
Top states: CA (7), TX (5), FL (5), WA (2), UT (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
54.3
position-weighted
Net
+2.4
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) from Oregon
Biggest loss: Fernando Mendoza (QB) to Indiana
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
100%
#1 of 243 stints
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints
Postseason detail2025: Lost to Hawai'i 31–35 Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Nohl Williams (2025), Craig Woodson (2025), Teddye Buchanan (2025), Marcus Harris (2025), Hezekiah Masses (2026)

1–1
2020–2021
Washington Statecaretaker
National Program III → National Program III
Nick Rolovich held Washington State at National Program III for 2 seasons.

8th-best Washington State tenure of 21 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-0.6 pts
#116 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-17.0 pts
#167 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Leach (2012–2019).

Season20202021Trend
Record & result
Record1–34–3
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#56#60
Style — pass rate
Pass rate58.052.9
Coordinators
OCBrian Smith / Craig StutzmannCraig Stutzmann / Brian Smith
DCJake DickertJake Dickert
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense2870
Defense2045
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%54.652.0
Red-zone pass%52.249.0
4th-down go%opp. territory30.050.0
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
7
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
24
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-17
#150 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′0″, 205 lbs
across 6 of 7 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+1.3 lbs
#201 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#4 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (2), WA (2), CA (1), NJ (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
22.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
48.0
position-weighted
Net
-25.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Kaleb Ford-Dement (CB) from Old Dominion
Biggest loss: Ayden Hector (CB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
217 lbs
6′4″ avg · #253 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
204 lbs
5′11″ avg · #525 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
186 lbs
5′11″ avg · #668 of 791 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
303 lbs
6′5″ avg · #625 of 779 · less than most
D-line
284 lbs
6′3″ avg · #370 of 753 · a typical amount
Edge
252 lbs
6′3″ avg · #107 of 188 · a typical amount
Cornerback
192 lbs
6′0″ avg · #254 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys ATH via the portal
17%
#30 of 146 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Postseason detail2021: Lost to Central Michigan 21–24 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Dezmon Patmon (2020), Abraham Lucas (2022), Jaylen Watson (2022)

5–6
2016–2019
Hawai'icaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Nick Rolovich held Hawai'i at Regional Program IV for 4 seasons.

12th-best Hawai'i tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+20.3 pts
#39 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-26.6 pts
#192 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Norm Chow (2012–2015) · succeeded by Todd Graham (2020–2021).

Season2016201720182019Trend
Record & result
Record7–73–98–610–5
PostseasonW bowlL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#108#86#96#114
Style — pass rate
Pass rate47.950.256.760.2
Coordinators
OCBrian SmithBrian SmithBrian SmithBrian Smith
DCKevin LempaLegi SuiaunoaCorey BatoonCorey Batoon
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense64304993
Defense1151819
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%41.444.656.363.2
Red-zone pass%37.146.158.853.5
4th-down go%opp. territory48.348.655.139.5
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Brian Smith → Brian Smith · 2017
64th pct30th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.4% → 44.6% (+3.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Kevin Lempa → Legi Suiaunoa · 2017
11th pct5th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Legi Suiaunoa → Corey Batoon · 2018
5th pct18th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2016: Beat Middle Tennessee 52–35 Hawai'i Bowl2018: Lost to Louisiana Tech 14–31 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl2019: Beat BYU 38–34 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Jahlani Tavai (2019), John Ursua (2019), Cole McDonald (2020)

28–27