Pat Fitzgerald

Head coach · Michigan State
1st season · since 2026 · Northwestern before

At school2-6since 2026 · 2-6 this seasonHot seatCool5% · 61st of 132 jobsLast gameL 10-28at UCLA · Oct 24Nextat MichiganSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-6, lost 6 straight, on track for 3-9 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 5-5

Northwestern’08L’09L’10L’11L’12W’15L’16W’17W’18W’20W

Show all 10 games
Northwestern2008Alamo BowlL 23-302009Outback BowlL 35-382010TicketCity BowlL 38-452011Meineke Car Care Bowl of TexasL 22-332012Gator BowlW 34-202015Outback BowlL 6-452016Pinstripe BowlW 31-242017Music City BowlW 24-232018Holiday BowlW 31-202020Citrus BowlW 35-19

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 10-28 at UCLA Sat Oct 24
  • This season2-6 lost 6 straight
  • On track for3-9 regular season
  • Nextat Michigan Sat Nov 7
  • Stature62nd of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: at Michigan

Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET Peacock · Michigan is 5-3 · Fitzgerald vs. Kyle Whittingham: 1-0 · Michigan State’s chance to win: 13% (the site’s model)

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from many outlets

Offense: 112th of 138 per play. Defense: 121st.

Offense, per play112thOffense, starting field position7thDefense, per play121stDefense, big plays allowed130thWorstBest
Offense, per play112th of 138Offense, starting field position7th of 138Defense, per play121st of 138Defense, big plays allowed130th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Michigan State. The other two rows are where Michigan State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Michigan (5-3)Peacock13%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Washington (5-3)18%
  3. Fri Nov 20vs. Oregon (5-3)FOX9%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Rutgers (2-6)50%

Percent: Michigan State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Michigan State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

52nd58th65thPreseason55thToledo W 30-20Toledo W 30-20W 30-20Toledo55thEastern Michigan W 35-7Eastern Michigan W 35-7W 35-7Eastern Michi…58thNotre Dame L 10-27Notre Dame L 10-27L 10-27Notre Dame59thNebraska L 13-31Nebraska L 13-31L 13-31Nebraska59thWisconsin L 3-31Wisconsin L 3-31L 3-31Wisconsin61stIllinois L 37-38Illinois L 37-38L 37-38Illinois62ndNorthwestern L 21-24Northwestern L 21-24L 21-24Northwestern61stUCLA L 10-28UCLA L 10-28L 10-28UCLA60thBye62nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game2 headlines · 77th of 138What Pat Fitzgerald had to say following MSU's loss to No. 9 UCLA Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 19–25L 10-28 at UCLA10 headlines · 43rd of 138Survey: Pat Fitzgerald Should Be Given Plenty Of Time The Only Colors
  3. Oct 12–18L 21-24 vs. Northwestern30 headlines · 10th of 138Pat Fitzgerald was Northwestern football royalty. Then, a hazing scandal forced him out USA Today
  4. Oct 5–11L 37-38 vs. Illinois18 headlines · 25th of 138Pat Fitzgerald talks about heartbreaking OT loss to Illinois Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 3-31 at Wisconsin13 headlines · 35th of 138Everything Pat Fitzgerald said after Michigan State lost to Wisconsin 247Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 13-31 vs. Nebraska13 headlines · 30th of 138Pat Fitzgerald speaks to the media following MSU's loss to Nebraska Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Michigan State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

5%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool61st-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 5%, 66th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 5%, 67th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 66th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-6, outscored by 47
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-6 after 8 games
16% pushed out over results · of 288 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.