Ball State beats Sacramento State 34-17
Team pages: Sacramento State · Ball State
Ball State beat Sacramento State 34-17. Share this game
We had Ball State favored. It won.
Next: Sacramento State vs Kent State, Fri Oct 30 · 10:30 PM ET · Sacramento State underdog by 10
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ball State an 81% chance, and the closing betting line (Ball State was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.
Favored the whole way: Ball State never fell below 70%.
Sacramento State never had better than a 29% chance.
Ball State 34-17 Sacramento State
Ball State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Sacramento State 17-34 Ball StateSacramento State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 11:3941-yd puntBall State 72% → 83% (+11)
- 2Q2 6:19Sharman 65-yd TD pass to Wilson, Sacramento State goes ahead 10-7Ball State 92% → 81% (−11)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 11:3941-yd puntSacramento State 28% → 17% (−11)
- 2Q2 6:19Sharman 65-yd TD pass to Wilson, Sacramento State goes ahead 10-7Sacramento State 8% → 19% (+11)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Ball State -14.5), at 88% for Ball State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Ball State scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Sacramento State on 3 of its 12.
Ball State’s drives are teal, Sacramento State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Sacramento State’s side
Sacramento State’s best moment: Sharman 65-yd TD pass to Wilson, Sacramento State goes ahead 10-7 (Q2 6:19). It lifted Sacramento State’s win chance by 11 points.
Box score
Ball State 34, Sacramento State 17
Ball State covered −14.5 by 2.5. The total, 51, stayed under 51.5.
| Team totals | Sacramento State | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 266 | 417 |
| Passing | 19 of 31, 212 yds | 14 of 27, 234 yds |
| Rushing | 27 for 54 yds | 43 for 183 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 26 |
| Third down | 3 of 12 | 8 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 7 for 68 yds | 7 for 73 yds |
| Time of possession | 26:05 | 33:55 |
Sacramento State leaders
- Passing Jackson Sharman 17 of 27, 187 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Isaiah Ene 10 for 57 yds; Daniel Swinney 3 for 12 yds
- Receiving Jace Wilson 3 for 89 yds, 1 TD; Onterrio Smith Jr. 3 for 36 yds
Ball State leaders
- Passing Keldric Luster 14 of 27, 234 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Jalen Bonds 17 for 77 yds; Keldric Luster 10 for 68 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Isaiah Thacker 1 for 65 yds, 1 TD; Jamarion McDougle 2 for 63 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
69° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 15
October game-day temperatures at Scheumann Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Muncie airport, 2.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Sacramento State · 1-6
Rated 131st in our preseason ratings, 239th now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
Last three games
Ball State · 2-5
Rated 161st in our preseason ratings, 157th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 1-point win over Bowling Green as a 6-point underdog.
Week by week
Ball State
- Wk 3Lat Liberty15-51
- Wk 4Lat Kent State13-26
- Wk 5Lvs Toledo24-39
- Wk 6Lat Northwestern14-45
- Wk 7Wat Bowling Green32-31
Sacramento State
- Wk 2Lat Fresno State3-49
- Wk 3Lvs North Dakota State10-31
- Wk 4Lvs Massachusetts6-35
- Wk 6Lat Bowling Green10-38
- Wk 7Lvs Ohio7-48
Power rating by week
Ball State is rated 4.9 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Ball State’s explosive plays against Sacramento State, 72 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ball State’s explosive plays against Sacramento State’s defense
Ball State offense, 85th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 13th
Ball State’s passing EPA against Sacramento State’s defense
Ball State offense, 50th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 13th
Ball State’s success rate against Sacramento State’s defense
Ball State offense, 18th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 55th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Ball State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (26th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Ball State favored by 14.5 · Total 51.5
How games like this usually go
Ball State by 14.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 263 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward Ball State.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −9.5 → −14.5 · Total: 49.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Ball State is worth +7.4 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 95th percentile.
49% at home, 25% on the road against FBS opponents (19-20 home, 13-38 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,913 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Ball State9th1-2
- Sacramento State12th0-4