Eastern Michigan beats Sacramento State 28-17

Team pages: Sacramento State · Eastern Michigan

Sacramento State0-117
Eastern Michigan1-028Final
Sat, Aug 29 · Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, Mich. · Crowd 9,401ESPN+

Eastern Michigan beat Sacramento State 28-17.

We had Eastern Michigan favored. It won.

Next: Sacramento State beat Mississippi Valley State 52-0, Sat Sep 5

Next: Eastern Michigan lost to San José State 27-21, Fri Sep 4

How it swung

The turning point: Kim 5-yd TD run, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 7-0 (Q2, 14:20). Eastern Michigan went from 78% to 94% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Eastern Michigan a 64% chance, and the closing betting line (Eastern Michigan was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Favored the whole way: Eastern Michigan never fell below 71%.

Sacramento State never had better than a 28% chance.

Fumble return TDSacramento State · Q2 0:54
FinalEastern Michigan 28-17 Sacramento StateEastern Michigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q493% at halfEastern MichiganWon28-171+16ScoresFumble return TD
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q493% at halfEastern MichiganWon28-171ScoresFumble return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q47% at halfEastern MichiganLost17-281−16ScoresFumble return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q47% at halfEastern MichiganLost17-281ScoresFumble return TD

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:20Kim 5-yd TD run, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 7-0Eastern Michigan 78% → 94% (+16)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:20Kim 5-yd TD run, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 7-0Sacramento State 22% → 6% (−16)
Eastern Michigan’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Eastern Michigan -9.5), at 80% for Eastern Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Eastern Michigan scored on 4 of its 14 drives; Sacramento State on 2 of its 13.

Eastern Michigan’s drives are teal, Sacramento State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Eastern Michigan: Punt, from 91 yards out to 78PuntSacramento State: Punt, from 63 yards out to 57PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 89 yards out to 87PuntSacramento State: Punt, from 56 yards out to 56PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 88 yards out to 85PuntSacramento State: Punt, from 50 yards out to 54PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 76 yards out to 70PuntSacramento State: Punt, from 54 yards out to 56PuntEastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Sacramento State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 63 yards out to 52PuntSacramento State: Field goal, from 28 yards out to 22Field goalEastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownSacramento State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 85FumbleEastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 15 yards out to 0TouchdownSacramento State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 59PuntEastern Michigan: Fumble Return returned for a touchdown, from 82 yards out to 100Fumble Return TDEastern Michigan: Missed field goal, from 57 yards out to 10Missed FGSacramento State: End of half, from 80 yards out to 81End of halfQ3Sacramento State: Punt, from 85 yards out to 49PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 81 yards out to 53PuntSacramento State: Turned over on downs, from 88 yards out to 39DownsEastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Sacramento State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Punt, from 74 yards out to 70PuntSacramento State: Interception, from 90 yards out to 38InterceptionEastern Michigan: Uncategorized, from 77 yards out to 72Uncategorized

When fans got loud

Fans had plenty to say in the opening stretch.

  1. early
  2. middle
  3. late
  4. final stretch
How we know

We look at when the most different fans were posting during the game thread, then name the part of the game it falls in. Only threads with a clear peak and enough fans get a word.

Box score

Eastern Michigan 28, Sacramento State 17

Eastern Michigan covered −9.5 by 1.5. The total, 45, stayed under 52.5.

Sacramento StateEastern MichiganTotal yardsSacramento State 268Eastern Michigan 348268348Passing yardsSacramento State 219Eastern Michigan 279219279Rushing yardsSacramento State 49Eastern Michigan 694969First downsSacramento State 13Eastern Michigan 211321TurnoversSacramento State 2Eastern Michigan 121Time of possessionSacramento State 27:32Eastern Michigan 32:2827:3232:28
Team totalsSacramento StateEastern Michigan
Total yards268348
Passing25 of 46, 219 yds27 of 38, 279 yds
Rushing17 for 49 yds30 for 69 yds
First downs1321
Third down3 of 145 of 15
Fourth down1 of 20 of 0
Turnovers21
Penalties10 for 85 yds4 for 29 yds
Time of possession27:3232:28

Sacramento State leaders

  • Passing Carson Conklin 25 of 46, 222 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Isaiah Ene 3 for 44 yds, 1 TD; Jamar Curtis 7 for 25 yds
  • Receiving Onterrio Smith Jr. 9 for 86 yds; Matthew Coleman 4 for 44 yds

Eastern Michigan leaders

  • Passing Noah Kim 27 of 38, 279 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Amareon Blue 12 for 55 yds; Braydon Bennett 7 for 27 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Ben Prosper 7 for 81 yds; Nick Devereaux 6 for 73 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

no rain recorded

Game-day temperatures at Rynearson Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Eastern Michigan favoredSacramento State favored100%Win chanceEastern MichiganRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Eastern Michigan favoredSacramento State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 14:20 left7:17 p.m.
Sacramento State 0, Eastern Michigan 7 · Eastern Michigan 94% to win
no rain
Kim 5-yd TD run, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 7-0

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Ann Arbor airport, 5.2 miles away, and Detroit/willow airport, 6.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Sacramento State · 7-5

Rated 131st in our preseason ratings.

L 27-31 @ UC Davis #110 of 667

lost by 4 as a 5-point underdog

Sacramento State lost 27-31 at UC Davis. Chance to win started at 28%, low 1%, high 69%.

W 23-20 vs Idaho #160 of 667

won by 3 as a 7-point favorite

Sacramento State won 23-20 vs Idaho. Chance to win started at 77%, low 5%, high better than 99%.

W 52-24 @ Portland State #253 of 667

won by 28 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 35-13 @ Eastern Washington #207 of 667

won by 22 as an 8.5-point favorite

Sacramento State won 35-13 at Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 66%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

L 35-49 vs Montana #85 of 667

lost by 14 as a 6-point underdog

Sacramento State lost 35-49 vs Montana. Chance to win started at 37%, low under 1%, high 66%.

W 40-35 vs Northern Colorado #185 of 667

won by 5 as a 15-point favorite

Sacramento State won 40-35 vs Northern Colorado. Chance to win started at 88%, low 65%, high 95%.

W 55-27 @ Weber State #218 of 667

won by 28 as an 8.5-point favorite

Sacramento State won 55-27 at Weber State. Chance to win started at 64%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

L 24-32 vs Cal Poly #166 of 667

lost by 8 as an 18-point favorite

Sacramento State lost 24-32 vs Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 94%, low under 1%, high 96%.

W 45-16 vs Central Arkansas #186 of 667

won by 29 as a 15.5-point favorite

Sacramento State won 45-16 vs Central Arkansas. Chance to win started at 88%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

W 49-28 vs Mercyhurst #259 of 667

won by 21 as a 21.5-point favorite

Sacramento State won 49-28 vs Mercyhurst. Chance to win started at 95%, low 60%, high better than 99%.

L 17-20 @ Nevada #146 of 667

lost by 3 as a 9.5-point underdog

Sacramento State lost 17-20 at Nevada. Chance to win started at 23%, low 1%, high 69%.

L 3-20 @ South Dakota State #86 of 667

lost by 17 as an 11.5-point underdog

Sacramento State lost 3-20 at South Dakota State. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 24%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Eastern Michigan · 4-8

Rated 92nd in our preseason ratings.

L 21-31 vs Western Michigan #87 of 667

lost by 10 as a 9.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 21-31 vs Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 65%.

W 24-9 @ Ball State #203 of 667

won by 15 as a 2.5-point favorite

Eastern Michigan won 24-9 at Ball State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

W 27-21 vs Bowling Green #180 of 667

won by 6 as a 3.5-point favorite

Eastern Michigan won 27-21 vs Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 68%, low 38%, high better than 99%.

L 21-28 vs Ohio #71 of 667

lost by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 21-28 vs Ohio. Chance to win started at 23%, low 2%, high 60%.

L 30-44 @ Miami (OH) #89 of 667

lost by 14 as an 11.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 30-44 at Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 21%.

W 16-10 vs Northern Illinois #139 of 667

won by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan won 16-10 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 55%, low 35%, high 98%.

L 30-31 @ Buffalo #121 of 667

lost by 1 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 13-24 @ Central Michigan #140 of 667

lost by 11 as a 3.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 13-24 at Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 26%.

W 34-31 vs Louisiana #99 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan won 34-31 vs Louisiana. Chance to win started at 53%, low 25%, high better than 99%.

L 23-48 @ Kentucky #39 of 667

lost by 25 as a 26.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 23-48 at Kentucky. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 23-28 vs Long Island University #173 of 667

lost by 5 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 27-52 @ Texas State #69 of 667

lost by 25 as a 13.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 27-52 at Texas State. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 11%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Eastern Michigan, 59 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Eastern Michigan’s defense

    59 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sacramento State offense, 1st percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 60th

  2. Sacramento State’s rushing EPA against Eastern Michigan’s defense

    53 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sacramento State offense, 5th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 58th

  3. Eastern Michigan’s success rate against Sacramento State’s defense

    41 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Eastern Michigan offense, 19th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 60th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Sacramento StateEastern Michigan
EPA/play, offense
Sacramento State · 4Eastern Michigan · 21
EPA/play, defense
Sacramento State ·…Eastern Michigan · 21
Success rate, offense
Sacramento State · 24Eastern Michigan · 19
Success rate, defense
Sacramento State · 60Eastern Michigan · 23
Explosive-play rate, offense
Sacramento State · 1Eastern Michigan · 26
Explosive-play rate, defense
Sacramento State · 10Eastern Michigan · 60
Rush EPA, offense
Sacramento State · 5Eastern Michigan · 24
Rush EPA, defense
Sacramento State · 32Eastern Michigan · 58
Pass EPA, offense
Sacramento State · 7Eastern Michigan · 29
Pass EPA, defense
Sacramento State · 13Eastern Michigan…

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Eastern Michigan fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (91st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 64%
  • Line · 78%
  • Eastern Michigan fans · 91st
  • Sacramento State fans · 62nd

Eastern Michigan favored by 9.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Eastern Michigan by 9.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Eastern Michigan.

opened −8.5now −9.5

Spread: −8.5 → −9.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Eastern Michigan has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.1 points (±3.4), home against road — 1st percentile of FBS.

49% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (20-21 home, 22-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.4 at home vs. away over 99 games — outside the ±5.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,987 miles to get here.

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