Big Sky Weber State

Record6-4through 10 games
NextByethen at Northern Arizona · Sat Nov 14

LeadersPassing Nate Dahle 2,140 · Rushing Spencer Ferguson 566 · Receiving Noah Kjar 902 All player stats

The model#35 among FCS teams

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Schedule and results

Weber State · 2026 schedule and results6-4Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 42% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.
WkDateOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Aug 28@Northern ColoradoW 30-29Weber State won 30-29 at Northern Colorado. Chance to win started at 46%, low 25%, high 90%.1-01-0Pass Brown 179 · Rush Ferguson 74 · Rec Kjar 114
1Sep 5@Southern UtahL 42-471-11-1Pass Dahle 282 · Rush Ferguson 91 · Rec Kjar 150
2Sep 12@ColoradoL 21-52 154Weber State lost 21-52 at Colorado. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.1-21-1Pass Dahle 244 · Rush Shah 65 · Rec Kjar 121
3Sep 19Northwestern StateW 49-20Weber State won 49-20 vs Northwestern State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.2-21-1Pass Dahle 178 · Rush Rigtrup 105 · Rec Munyer 36
4Sep 26Portland StateL 41-442-31-2Pass Dahle 338 · Rush Shah 76 · Rec Session 175
5Oct 3@Cal PolyW 42-34Weber State won 42-34 at Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 26%, low 8%, high better than 99%.3-32-2Pass Dahle 223 · Rush Dahle 85 · Rec Kjar 89
6Oct 10IdahoW 38-27Weber State won 38-27 vs Idaho. Chance to win started at 65%, low 54%, high better than 99%.4-33-2Pass Dahle 99 · Rush Ferguson 153 · Rec Kjar 50
7Oct 17Idaho StateW 27-20Weber State won 27-20 vs Idaho State. Chance to win started at 45%, low 13%, high 97%.5-34-2Pass Dahle 173 · Rush Ferguson 133 · Rec Kjar 40
8Oct 24@Montana StateL 33-38Weber State lost 33-38 at Montana State. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 39%.5-44-3Pass Dahle 240 · Rush Rigtrup 57 · Rec Kjar 124
9Oct 31UC DavisW 38-14Weber State won 38-14 vs UC Davis. Chance to win started at 53%, low 47%, high better than 99%.6-45-3Pass Dahle 309 · Rush Dahle 79 · Rec Young 72
10Bye week
11Nov 14@Northern Arizona4 pm ET33% to win
12Nov 21Utah Tech3 pm ET90% to win
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Weber State, through 10 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31UC DavisW 38-14———+0.35847.8%1.44Season-high EPA/play
Oct 24@Montana StateL 33-38———+0.23548.4%1.14One-score loss
Oct 17Idaho StateW 27-20———−0.09240.3%0.83Best defensive stand
Oct 10IdahoW 38-27———+0.32048.2%1.30
Oct 3@Cal PolyW 42-34———+0.20142.4%1.26One-score win
Sep 26Portland StateL 41-44———+0.10241.2%1.83Most explosive
Sep 19Northwestern StateW 49-20———+0.29450.7%1.34Best success rate
Sep 12@ColoradoL 21-52372229:55−0.15732.5%1.55Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5@Southern UtahL 42-47———+0.24240.8%1.53One-score loss
Aug 28@Northern ColoradoW 30-29———+0.19244.3%1.21One-score win
Season average (10 games)3722.0+0.16943.7%1.34

What’s ahead

Off this week

10 days

until kickoff · at Northern Arizona · Sat Nov 14 · 4 pm ET

The forecast

Today’s games across college football

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 14Next: Northern Arizonaat Northern Arizona · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

Weber State has won four of its last five.

6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.

Streak W1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4

Range of outcomes · Weber State · 2026

Weber State’s base case is 7-5, mid-table finish. The floor is 6-6; the ceiling is 8-4.

What each outcome looks like
Floor6-6Competitive, but outside the at-large field.
Base7-5Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
Ceiling8-4Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.

No season-path projection for this program yet, so this is the 6-4 record so far plus the 2 games left, with a two-win swing down and a three-win swing up.

More in this tab

Worth watchingGames average 69 combined points, shootouts

What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-4

Game feel69shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 13 in the Big Sky
Heart rate3-3some dramain one-score games (6 of 10)4th most one-score games of 13 in the Big Sky
Margin+3.6competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 13 in the Big Sky
Big plays1.34some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)4th most explosive of 13 in the Big Sky
Home crowd7,081avg attendance8th biggest crowds of 13 in the Big Sky

Measured from 10 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Weber State is 6-4 and plays at Northern Arizona next.

2026 Record6-4
Read the full program story ↓
Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Weber State is 6-4 and plays at Northern Arizona next.

CFB Zeitgeist “Go Wildcats.”
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site