Montana State beats Weber State 38-33
Team pages: Weber State · Montana State
Montana State beat Weber State 38-33. Share this game
We had Montana State favored. It won.
Next: Weber State vs UC Davis, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET
Next: Montana State vs Cal Poly, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Rigtrup 31-yd TD run, Weber State goes ahead 24-17 (Q2, 1:53). Montana State went from 89% to 67% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana State a 94% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana State was a 25.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.
Favored the whole way: Montana State never fell below 61%.
Weber State led by 10 but, as a 25.5-point underdog, never had better than a 39% chance.
Montana State · Q4 14:57Montana State 38-33 Weber State
Montana State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Weber State 33-38 Montana StateWeber State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:53Rigtrup 31-yd TD run, Weber State goes ahead 24-17Montana State 89% → 67% (−22)
- 2Q3 12:50FumbleDahle run for a 7-yd loss, fumblesMontana State 63% → 74% (+11)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:53Rigtrup 31-yd TD run, Weber State goes ahead 24-17Weber State 11% → 33% (+22)
- 2Q3 12:50FumbleDahle run for a 7-yd loss, fumblesWeber State 37% → 26% (−11)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Montana State -25.5), at 96% for Montana State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Montana State scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Weber State on 5 of its 10.
Montana State’s drives are teal, Weber State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Weber State’s side
Weber State’s best moment: Rigtrup 31-yd TD run, Weber State goes ahead 24-17 (Q2 1:53). It lifted Weber State’s win chance by 22 points.
5 lead changes.
Box score
Montana State 38, Weber State 33
Weber State covered +25.5 by 20.5. The total, 71, went over 64.5.
Weber State leaders
- Passing Nate Dahle 21 of 40, 240 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Seth Rigtrup 6 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Nate Dahle 8 for 34 yds
- Receiving Noah Kjar 8 for 124 yds; Tate Kjar 5 for 64 yds
Montana State leaders
- Passing Justin Lamson 23 of 35, 232 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Jared White 13 for 125 yds, 1 TD; Adam Jones 22 for 115 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Dane Steel 6 for 74 yds; Carter Dahlke 6 for 69 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Weber State · 5-3
Rated 238th in our preseason ratings, 185th now, up 53 spots.
Three straight wins, capped by a 7-point win over Idaho State as a 4.5-point underdog.
W 27-20 vs Idaho State No. 153 of 668 teams
won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 41-44 vs Portland State No. 251 of 668 teams
lost by 3 as a 7-point favorite
W 49-20 vs Northwestern State No. 266 of 668 teams
won by 29 as a 35.5-point favorite
L 42-47 @ Southern Utah No. 149 of 668 teams
lost by 5 as a 14.5-point underdog
W 30-29 @ Northern Colorado No. 254 of 668 teams
won by 1 as a 3-point underdog
Last three games
Montana State · 6-1
Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 71st now, up 13 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Montana State
- Wk 2Wat Nevada20-7
- Wk 3Wvs Central Connecticut35-30
- Wk 4Wvs Northern Arizona28-14
- Wk 5Lat Idaho34-35
- Wk 7Wat Eastern Washington56-20
Weber State
- Wk 3Wvs Northwestern State49-20
- Wk 4Lvs Portland State41-44
- Wk 5Wat Cal Poly42-34
- Wk 6Wvs Idaho38-27
- Wk 7Wvs Idaho State27-20
Power rating by week
Montana State is rated 8.9 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Montana State leads the series 14-4
18 meetings since 2004 · Montana State has won the last 5
- 2025Montana State 66-14
- 2023Montana State 40-0
- 2022Montana State 33-25
- 2022Montana State 43-38
- 2021Montana State 13-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Montana State’s chances here.
Montana State favored by 25.5 · Total 64.5
How games like this usually go
Montana State by 25.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 417 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Montana State is worth +10.3 points (±15.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
33% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 4-5 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.3 at home vs. away over 61 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
4,946 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 312 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Montana State4th3-1
- Weber State3rd4-2