The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: UCF 44%
Win out <1% · expect 1.2 of 4 more wins
Colorado's chance to win each game left, from our model: Arizona State 36%, Houston 10%, Cincinnati 28%, UCF 44%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 37% to 19%, peaking at 67% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 14th in the Big 12 · 1-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Isaac Wilson 1,164 · Rushing Jaquail Smith 361 · Receiving Joseph Williams 732 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Colorado:athletics siteBig 12XYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #163 | #74 | +6.5✓ +7.5 | @Georgia Tech | W 14-13 130 Roaring | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Lewis 124 · Rush Henderson II 65 · Rec Moore Jr. 37 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #156 | #241 | −38.5✗ −7.5 | Weber State | W 52-21 154 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Lewis 366 · Rush Welch 106 · Rec Williams 123 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #142 | #11 | +3.5✗ −30.5 | @Northwestern | L 7-41 135 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lewis 168 · Rush Smith 91 · Rec Williams 88 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #126 | #35 | +8.5✗ −1.5 | @Baylor | L 13-23 155 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Wilson 156 · Rush Welch 35 · Rec Williams 127 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #119 | #9 | +13.5✗ −8.5 | Texas Tech | L 7-29 143 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass Wilson 290 · Rush Wilson 42 · Rec Williams 93 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #109 | #16 | +15.5✓ +12.5 | Utah | L 24-27 135 | 2-4 | 0-3 | Pass Wilson 256 · Rush Smith 73 · Rec Moore Jr. 70 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #94 | #99 | +12.5✗ −20.5 | @Oklahoma State | L 24-57 138 | 2-5 | 0-4 | Pass Wilson 280 · Rush Smith 39 · Rec Williams 135 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #115 | #51 | −3= | Kansas State | W 27-24 133 Firestorm | 3-5 | 1-4 | Pass Wilson 185 · Rush Young 120 · Rec Williams 89 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #103 | #63 | +3 | @Arizona State | 7:30 pm ET · ESPN236% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 13 | #104 | #21 | Houston | 10:15 pm ET · ESPN10% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Cincinnati | time TBA28% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | UCF | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Colorado, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Colorado: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Kansas State | W 27-24 | 407 | 1 | 28:04 | +0.351 | 40.6% | 1.51 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @Oklahoma State | L 24-57 | 399 | 3 | 29:15 | +0.028 | 39.7% | 1.42 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 17 | Utah | L 24-27 | 394 | 2 | 23:00 | +0.097 | 36.4% | 1.42 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | Texas Tech | L 7-29 | 375 | 4 | 31:04 | -0.264 | 39.5% | 1.04 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Baylor | L 13-23 | 363 | 1 | 31:26 | -0.153 | 35.4% | 0.92 | |
| Sep 19 | @Northwestern | L 7-41 | 348 | 4 | 23:07 | -0.143 | 41.0% | 1.09 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 12 | Weber State | W 52-21 | 578 | 2 | 30:05 | +0.467 | 45.9% | 1.59 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 3 | @Georgia Tech | W 14-13 | 307 | 0 | 34:09 | +0.052 | 37.7% | 1.12 | One-score win |
| Season average (8 games) | 396 | 2.1 | +0.055 | 39.5% | 1.26 | ||||
Colorado's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Colorado Athletics extends our full support to JuJu and his family through this medical emergency
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Deion Sanders inherits a 3-9 losing record and a program mired in off-field tensions, raising questions about whether Colorado's 1990s glory can be revived under his fourth season at the helm.
Statusfront page
Deion Sanders inherits a 3-9 losing record at Colorado, where the program's legacy and current struggles create a stark contrast in fan expectations.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Colorado · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 23%; 4 wins 43%; 5 wins 27%; 6 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 24 of 4270 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (165 posts): 16% positive · 46% neutral · 38% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 138 of 4270 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (165 posts): 16% positive · 46% neutral · 38% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Colorado is the program that turned a head-coaching hire into appointment television — and is now finding out what the lights look like when the wins stop following them.
Every Buffs fan knows the deal: the same cameras that made Boulder the center of the sport are the ones counting down to the day they can call it a circus that fell apart. The fanbase loves the…
Colorado · Game-day weather
Typical at Folsom Field: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 89
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Colorado is the program with a 1990 national title and the most-watched college football story of the 2020s thanks to Coach Prime.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
25th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
5Deion Sanders inherits a 3-9 losing record and a program mired in off-field tensions, raising questions about whether Colorado's 1990s glory can be revived under his fourth season at the helm.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Colorado · 2026