Big 12 Kansas State

Head coach Collin Klein · 1st season · 4-4 at Kansas State

Record4-41-4 Big 12 · T-14th
Bowl2 wins to goto bowl eligibility
Nextvs Oklahoma StateSat Nov 7 · 1 pm ET · TNT

The rest of the season

Three real tests left: No. 24 Arizona 21%, TCU 32%, Iowa State 64%

Win out 3% · expect 1.9 of 4 more wins

Kansas State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Oklahoma State 74%, TCU 32%, Arizona 21%, Iowa State 64%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 90% to 76%, peaking at 97% before a game

90%95%W97%W93%L86%L93%W86%L76%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 14th in the Big 12 · 1-4 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Avery Johnson 1,301 · Rushing Rodney Fields Jr. 487 · Receiving Jaron Tibbs 379 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#60 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #39 (+8.8) · FPI #50
The marketOklahoma State by 4.5Betting line vs Oklahoma State · our model 74% Kansas State

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Kansas State:athletics siteBig 12XYouTube

Schedule and results

Kansas State · 2026 schedule and results4-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 44% · 1 opponent played so far is in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #32 to #51
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#32#204−41.5✓ +26.5NichollsW 71-3 129Kansas State won 71-3 vs Nicholls. Never in doubt.1-00-0Pass Johnson 199 · Rush Fields Jr. 101 · Rec Jackson 48
2Sep 12#33#41−17.5✓ +9.5Washington StateW 34-7 124Kansas State won 34-7 vs Washington State. Chance to win started at 91%, low 87%, high better than 99%.2-00-0Pass Johnson 192 · Rush Fields Jr. 105 · Rec Manning 97
3Sep 19#25#71−20.5✗ −9.5TulaneW 31-20 124Kansas State won 31-20 vs Tulane. Chance to win started at 94%, low 76%, high better than 99%.3-00-0Pass Johnson 227 · Rush Johnson 152 · Rec Tibbs 114
4Sep 26#26#101−6✗ −11@CincinnatiL 26-31 131Kansas State lost 26-31 at Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 53%, low under 1%, high 86%.3-10-1Pass Johnson 292 · Rush Jackson 59 · Rec Salley Jr. 140
5Bye week
6Oct 10#33#14−2.5✗ −21.5HoustonL 16-35 132Kansas State lost 16-35 vs Houston. Chance to win started at 62%, low under 1%, high 62%.3-20-2Pass Johnson 182 · Rush Fields Jr. 46 · Rec Oakley 49
7Oct 17#42#53−3✓ +8KansasW 35-24 135Kansas State won 35-24 vs Kansas. Chance to win started at 67%, low 22%, high better than 99%.4-21-2Pass Johnson 209 · Rush Jackson 159 · Rec Salley Jr. 70
8Oct 24#42#75−1.5✗ −12.5@Arizona StateL 17-28 144Kansas State lost 17-28 at Arizona State. Chance to win started at 52%, low under 1%, high 71%.4-31-3Pass Knuth 194 · Rush Fields Jr. 36 · Rec Salley Jr. 63
9Oct 31#51#115+3=@ColoradoL 24-27 133Kansas State lost 24-27 at Colorado. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 77%. Firestorm4-41-4Pass Barnett 224 · Rush Fields Jr. 65 · Rec Manning 73
10Nov 7#60#80+4.5Oklahoma State1 pm ET · TNT74% to win
11Nov 14#60#44@TCUtime TBA32% to win
12Nov 21Arizonatime TBA21% to win
13Nov 28@Iowa Statetime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Kansas State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Kansas State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31@ColoradoL 24-27347031:56+0.16345.1%1.04One-score loss
Oct 24@Arizona StateL 17-28278033:10-0.20331.5%1.03Season-low EPA/play
Oct 17KansasW 35-24568136:13+0.22146.8%1.31
Oct 10HoustonL 16-35299125:11+0.07246.7%0.92Defense's roughest night
Sep 26@CincinnatiL 26-31447133:18+0.21146.9%0.94One-score loss
Sep 19TulaneW 31-20428033:41+0.36047.8%1.34
Sep 12Washington StateW 34-7487234:20+0.13346.1%1.36Most explosive
Sep 5NichollsW 71-3559133:43+0.58865.3%1.24Season-high EPA/play
Season average (8 games)4270.8+0.19347.0%1.15

Kansas State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line7.5 winsover +105
Offense strongMethodical, ball-controlDefense soft

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 7.5▲1 since Sep 29

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

L 24-27 at Colorado

Kansas State fans
r/CFB
“Any time you can give up the chance to end the game on your own terms when you have the opponent reeling, you have to do it”
3d ago
r/CFB
“Worst team in 35 years. Have to go for 2 at the end of regulation”
3d ago

L 17-28 at Arizona State

Kansas State fans
r/CFB
“I’d blame this on Avery being out but Jacob Knuth looked great. Good game ASU!”
1w ago
r/CFB
“Hey ASU fans. Are you seeing nothing but political ads or is it just us?”
1w ago
Arizona State fans on Kansas State
r/CFB
“Kansas State starting OL Dylan Villarouel on ASU: ‘…respectfully, we’re going to come in and take over their trap.’”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 21AP #24 Arizonavs Arizona · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Kansas State has won one of its last five.

5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last two.

Streak L2Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 5-5
Klein’s one of the best architects of the quarterback run, and this deceptive run game
Dillingham · Kstatecollegianthe day before Kansas State's 2026 game against Arizona State

Playoff chance, day by day

<1% now

020%<1%High 8%, Sep 17Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

3 storylines developing

What Kansas State’s program standing is really about

The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?

Dynastythis cyclenew

Kansas State has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-11% tier since 2024, and the gap from the #17 AP peak is structural, not just a roster rebuild.

What happenedKansas State has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 27% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 16%.
The contexta 22-14 record over the last three regular seasons

Statusfront page

Coachingthis cyclenew

Collin Klein inherits a 69% production returning roster after replacing Chris Klieman — the program's identity demands stability, not just a new name on the sideline.

What happenedCollin Klein took over as Kansas State's head coach, replacing Chris Klieman.
The contextreplaces 7-year head coach Chris Klieman (54-34)

Statusdeveloping

Market swing2026-06-19new

Klieman's 6-6 season defies the solo market signal of a win total bump — Snyder’s legacy still demands patience in Manhattan.

What happenedKansas State win total rose from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1 win) between Jun 19 and Jun 19, 2026.
The contextwin total up 1.0

Statusdeveloping

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedKansas State's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
AnsweredKansas State's fall from dynasty-caliber territory held — it stayed out.
AnsweredKansas State's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · Kansas State · 2026

Kansas State’s most likely regular season is 6-6. 92% of outcomes land from 5-7 to 7-5.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

4 wins 5%; 5 wins 27%; 6 wins 43%; 7 wins 22%; 8 wins 3%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-7A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · Kansas State · Program power

Kansas State is slipping in the power ratings.

Kansas State has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 27% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 16%. It is a 22-14 record over the last three regular seasons. The rating and the coverage both point down. When both move the same way, recruiting and portal losses tend to speed up.

The saga so far~2 months old
last weekWin total (line at 7.5) holding steady right after "K-State Hall of Famer arrested"
2 weeks agoWin total: 8.5 to 7.5 (down 1)
2 weeks agoBig 12 title odds: +1450 to +25000 (the market’s chance is down 6.1 points)
2 weeks agoWin total: 7.5 to 8.5 (up 1)
2 weeks agoBig 12 title odds: +22500 to +1450 (the market’s chance is up 6.0 points)
Our read
Kansas State has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-11% tier since 2024, and the gap from the #17 AP peak is structural, not just a roster rebuild.
Source of record: Kansas State has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 27% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 16% — a 22-14 record over the last three regular seasons.
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissent
📣Believers0 bullish/momentum items making the case that it's working.›

The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.

“Davis Kern scores 24 to help South Dakota State upset Kansas State 68-66 in season opener”
The Washington Post · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Rapid Recap: South Dakota State 68, Kansas State 66”
247Sports · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Instant Takeaways: Kansas State isn't playing to its assumed strengths”
Instant Takeaways · On3 · Nov 4 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsLeading counter: “Colorado’s Biggest Concerns After Kansas State: What’s Real…”.›

The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.

“Colorado’s Biggest Concerns After Kansas State: What’s Real and What’s an Overreaction”
Sports Illustrated · Nov 3 · read ↗
“Musings: Barnett steadies Kansas State offense, but the defense built its problems in January”
On3 · Nov 3 · read ↗
Following now · Kansas State · Coaching

New coverage keeps arriving on Collin Klein at Kansas State.

Collin Klein took over as Kansas State's head coach, replacing Chris Klieman. It is replaces 7-year head coach Chris Klieman (54-34). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is thin so far, and the story is still developing.

upbeat so far, only a few posts doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Believers3 upbeat posts
Drama: simmeringFans: 1% volume
Developing3 new this week
todayCollin Klein, Kansas State Building Relationship With 2028 DE From Georgia · roundtable.io
yesterdayCould Kansas State, Collin Klein Land 3-Star Edge From Raleigh? · Yahoo Sports
3 days agoWhat We Learned: Klein's easiest hires might make for hardest offseason decisions at K-State · On3
last weekWin total (line at 7.5) holding steady right after "K-State Hall of Famer arrested"
2 weeks agoWin total: 8.5 to 7.5 (down 1)
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Collin Klein Head coach
“Collin Klein, Kansas State Building Relationship With 2028 DE From Georgia” — roundtable.io · 2026-11-04
Chris Klieman Out
Collin Klein Owns
“Collin Klein Owns Costly Decisions as K-State Looks to Bounce Back Against Colorado” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-10-28
Costly Decisions
“Collin Klein Owns Costly Decisions as K-State Looks to Bounce Back Against Colorado” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-10-28
Our read
Collin Klein inherits a 69% production returning roster after replacing Chris Klieman — the program's identity demands stability, not just a new name on the sideline.
Source of record: Collin Klein took over as Kansas State's head coach, replacing Chris Klieman — replaces 7-year head coach Chris Klieman (54-34).
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards quietThe Dominoes active
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “Kansas State Coach Collin Klein Gives Unusual Avery Johnson…”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“Kansas State Coach Collin Klein Gives Unusual Avery Johnson Injury Update”
Heartland College Sports · Oct 25 · read ↗
“Collin Klein Sends Strong Message About K-State's Offensive Line After Cincinnati Loss”
Sports Illustrated · Sep 30 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish/hire items making the case that it's working.›

The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.

“Colorado Will Always Be A Special Place For Kansas State Wildcats' Collin Klein”
Yahoo Sports · Oct 29 · read ↗
“Collin Klein coached for a tie at Colorado. Did his strategy cost K-State a win?”
Wichita Eagle · Nov 1 · read ↗
“Everything Collin Klein said after Kansas State’s loss at Colorado”
247Sports · Nov 1 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent; the coverage runs one way.›

The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

Nothing in our corpus yet.

💬The boards1% of recent board volume, less than the headlines suggest.›

This event was in 61 of 4425 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"I'm definitely overreacting, but Snyder inherited the worst program in cfb. Klein inherited a program that until 2025 had been winning 8-9 games fairly consistently so even with in"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Sorry man, but wholeheartedly disagree. With all the adversity we were facing up to that point, if we hadn’t made, it the sentiment would have been “well at least you had a chance"
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

🔗The dominoes16 downstream moves tied to the hire.›

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Nuggets on Kansas State commits considering flipping”
On3 · Nov 3 · read ↗
“Kansas State roster and recruiting update: Defensive end”
On3 · Oct 29 · read ↗

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 54 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4

Game feel54even gamescombined pts / game11th highest-scoring of 16 in the Big 12
Heart rate0-2rarely closein one-score games (2 of 8)13th most one-score games of 16 in the Big 12
Margin+9.9competitiveavg scoring margin8th best margin of 16 in the Big 12
Tempo71average paceoffensive plays / game5th fastest of 16 in the Big 12
Big plays1.15grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)15th most explosive of 16 in the Big 12
Home crowd51,771avg attendance4th biggest crowds of 16 in the Big 12

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Kansas State is the program Bill Snyder dragged out of the sport's deepest hole and built on patience — and after a sideways 6-6 year and Chris Klieman's retirement, it just handed the keys to one of its own, Collin Klein.

Title DroughtSince 2012 · 14 yrs

Fans have heard their program called a Snyder-only fluke for thirty years — that without one coach K-State reverts to the bottom. They believe the patience and the toughness are the program, not the…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weather56° at kickoff, 2% chance of rain

Kansas State · Game-day weather

This Saturday: Cool. Bring a jacket.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 1 pm ET · TNT · Bill Snyder Family Stadium.

  • 56°feels like
  • 2%average rain chance
  • 5 mphwind gusts
  • 99weather score, Comfortable

Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.

Typical at Bill Snyder Family Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm Saturdays 83

  • noon: 85, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 83, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 89, Mixed

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Kansas State is the program Bill Snyder built from worst-in-FBS-history into Big 12 power — and the patience that legacy still rewards.

Offense: StrongStyle: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Soft
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

Active arcs

Cooling
Big 12 reduces fines for Kansas State and Iowa State after skipping bowl games
Why did the Big 12 reduce its fines against Iowa State and Kansas State?
Read the Kansas State story →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026Hired Collin Klein
  • 2025 · Wk 2Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 1 · Won 38-35 at home over North Dakotawas No. 17
  • 2025Chris Klieman departs54-34

Roster and recruiting

Roster71% of production back, talent #47

Roster reload: Kansas State

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production71%High continuity
Talent Composite#47 nationally247 composite 718.7
Portal Additions27Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses33Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2)
Recruiting Reload#50Development class
EDGEin 3 - Wendell Gregory4.38out 5 - Tobi Osunsanmi4.50Starter Risk
current room: 253 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Power Rusherbull-rushes through contact at the point of attack
Third program
WRin 3 - Joshua Manning3.70out 4 - Jayce Brown4.25Downgrade
current room: 195 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receivermoves the chains on third down
Transferred in
CBin 3 - Kaleb Patterson3.70out 4 - Donovan McIntosh3.60Downgrade
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickel2025 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
Junior-college recruit
RBin 3 - Jay Harris3.80out 4 - Dylan Edwards3.80Even
current room: 196 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Workhorse2025 profilejust keeps getting the ball, series after series
IOLin 4 - Keiton Jones3.60out 2 - Devin Vass3.60Need Filled
current room: 308 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Mekhi Mason3.60out 4 - Austin Romaine3.70Starter Risk
current room: 230 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sideline-to-Sidelineranges from hash to hash and finishes the tackle
Third program
Full roster (113 players)
CBBen Osueke, Damion Miller, Donovan McIntosh, Garrick Dixon, JoJo Scott, Josiah Vilmael, Kaleb Patterson, Martel Jackson, Micheal Graham Jr., Nick Mcclellan, RJ Collins, Serious Stinyard, Zashon Rich
DEBrad Stanyer, Dalton Knapp, Elijah Hill, Jackson Hollie, Jayden Bryant, Jordan Allen, Travis Bates, Tucker Ashford, Wendell Gregory
DTAdrian Bekibele, Austin Ramsey, Carnell Jackson Jr., De'Arieun Hicks, Eli Jackson, Holden Bass, Kamari Burns, Kingston Hall, Miles Merchant, Patrick Tackie
LBAsa Newsom, Ashton Moore, DJ Ackerson Jr., Darien Whitaker Jr., Gabe Powers, Jacobi Oliphant Jr., Mekhi Mason, Rex Van Wyhe, Rex Van Wyhe, Sawyer Schilke, Weston Polk
LSAndrew Johnson, Jaxson Duffield, Sam Dolphens
OLBennett Fraser, Brock Heath, Charlie Adams, Chase Duarte, Delvin Morris, Dylan Villarouel, George Fitzpatrick, Gus Hawkins, Joe Vickers, John Pastore, Jordan Jensen, Keegan Collins, Keiton Jones, Kyle Rakers, Lamarcus Barber, Michael Capria, Navarro Schunke, Oliver Miller, Ryan Howard, Tanner Morley, Tyler Johnson
PDylan Davidson, Simon McClannan
PKAidan O'Neill, Luis Rodriguez, Robert Hammond III
QBAvery Johnson, Blake Barnett, Dillon Duff, Jacob Knuth
RBJay Harris, Joe Jackson, LJ McGhee, Monterrio Elston Jr., Rodney Fields Jr., Tanner West
SAdrian Maddox, Blake Jay, Dominic Mitchell, Ja'Son Prevard, Jace Adler, Jack Fabris, Jet Dineen, Koy Beasley, Logan Bartley, Mikey Bergeron, Wesley Fair
TEArley Morrell, Elias Wilson, Garrett Oakley, Lawson Mcgraw, Linkon Cure, Owen Harrington, Will Anciaux
WRAdonis Moise, Brandon White, Derrick Salley Jr., Isaac Koch, Izaiah Williams, Jaron Tibbs, Joshua Manning, Julius Wilson, Kaprice Keith, Larry Porter IV, Max Lovett, Nash Morrison, Sterling Lockett
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Cameron Kruse
QB · Franklin, TN
#805 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Community pulse

No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 4% of FBS programs
↓

Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025

4th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is far more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
4th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
7.5
Sportsbook win total
(57th among FBS)
Market 53pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
RivalsRival pulse: Kansas uneasy

Rival pulse

Kansas
Uneasy
-9
Sunflower Showdown

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

Current chapterThe story this season is telling right now.
4
Dynasty move

Kansas State slips from dynasty status, shifting power dynamics.

Kansas State has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-11% tier since 2024, and the gap from the #17 AP peak is structural, not just a roster rebuild.

The jury's still out.
FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Kansas State

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site