Heisman / Players / Joe Jackson /Kansas State

Joe Jackson

RB · Kansas State · So · #4

The Hope Economyas of 2026-06-22

911 rush yards, 8 TDs, and a four-star challenger waiting in the wings — Joe Jackson's hold on the job is unresolved.

911RUSH YDS8RUSH TD169CARRIES

PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP

-86

perception vs production percentile · 2025

Kansas State fans overwhelmingly frame Jackson as a player worth believing in, insisting the 2025 production is a floor, not a ceiling, and that the potential justifies the faith heading into 2026.

medium confidence2 sources

Minority viewA vocal minority argues Dylan Edwards's four-star pedigree makes the handoff a matter of when, not if.

All ceiling, for now — a 96th-percentile bet riding on a 9th-percentile résumé. The hope is the whole position.

Read the story so far

Jackson carried 169 times for 911 yards and 8 touchdowns last season, numbers that would anchor most backfields. But Kansas State fans are not debating the past — they are debating 2026, specifically how long Jackson holds off Edwards. The perception-above-tape gap of 86 percentile points signals scouts see something the box score does not fully capture yet, which is exactly the tension the fanbase is sitting with.

The question is whether Jackson's 2026 answers it before Edwards makes it irrelevant.

RB successioncontinuity

Pushed byDylan Edwards 4★
How many games until Dylan Edwards (4★) takes the job from Joe Jackson?

Why nowThe RB job is the open question heading into 2026.

season totals
perception vs production percentile · 2025
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes
compiled from tagged fan discourse

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

NOW IN NFLDallas — drafted 2019, Rd 5, Pick 27, #165 overallAs of Jun 22, 2026

Where He Ended Up · NFL

DallasEntering 8th NFL season

#165Rd 5 · Pick 27

DallasEntering 8th NFL season

View college career stats ↓

RB · KANSAS STATE · BIG 12

Joe Jackson

2
#4
6-0 | 212 lb
Haines City, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 86th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#1665

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Aura tax +86aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 95th percentile of RBs; the tape says 9th — more hype than the tape.

Aura — fan perception95th pctl

Production — on-field9th pctl

n=39 mentions · cohort: RBs · 140 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_rushing

In Their Words 33 windows · 2025 fan posts

joe×283.5yard×61.0run×48.1

“JOE JACKSON, 24 yard touchdown run! Jackson is one yard away from Darren Sproles's record. Cats went for 2, Johnson got picked off and Utah ran it back, waving off a flag in the end zone. 47-37 Cats, 7:00 to go.”

bluesky_curated · fan post, verbatim

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

2 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2025

2023

Kansas State · RB

—

★

2025

Kansas State · RB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

NFL Draft 2019 · Rd 5, Pick 27 · #165 overall · Dallas

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2023–2025

1.02023

9112025

+91000%

Up 91000% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★

#533 national

CFB

College

Kansas State

2023–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

R5 · #165

Dallas · 2019

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB

Class2

Jersey4

Measurements6-0 | 212 lb

HometownHaines City, FL

Primary teamKansas State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 533 recruit

Composite rating 0.8844 HighSchool

Signed with Kansas State 2023

Origin Ridge Community Davenport, FL, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2023	3-star \| 0.8844	No. 533 recruit \| HighSchool \| Kansas State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file

Latest destination -- --

Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD

Season	Move	Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#1665Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#1546Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Kansas State

Composite

0.8844

#533 national

NFL Draft

2019 · Rd 5, Pick 27

#165 overall · Dallas

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 34 mentions

Confidence MEDIUM

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=34
National · n=10

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Yards per carry

5.4

yds

P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries

National rank #22 of 69

Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 69th

Why it matters

#22 of 69 P4 + Notre Dame RBs at 5.4 yards per carry (169 carries).

Vs cohort

This player 5.4 (69th)

HIGH · n=169 cohort 69

Also strong
Rushing yards (total)#20 / 69
Rushing WEPA per carry#64 / 66

Signature Moment

Week 13 at Utah — 293 ypc

Result L 47-51

The week the volume broke through — put up 293 yds at Utah.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game

Through 11g

911Rush yards

169Carries

8Rush TDs

Per game

82.8Rush yards

15Carries

1Rush TDs

Projected (13g)

1,077Rush yards

200Carries

9Rush TDs

✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 911.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 911): needs 44.5/game over remaining 2.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 911): needs 294.5/game over remaining 2.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 8): needs 1/game over remaining 2.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 8): needs 3.5/game over remaining 2.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 8): needs 6/game over remaining 2.

Why the honors trail matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Joe Jackson already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.

Current place #1665 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 26.0% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Honors spine 1 honors loaded

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Scrimmage yards 1,030 911 rush | 119 rec | #50/735 (93rd pct)

Rush TD 8 169 carries | #51/739 (93rd pct)

Yards/carry 5.4 Per-rush efficiency | #206/735 (72nd pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.

WorkhorsePassing-game back

Rushing

CAR

169 94th

YDS

911 93rd

YPC

5.4 72nd

8 93rd

Receiving

REC

22 89th

YDS

119 76th

YPR

5.4 30th

1 89th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	L 21-24vs Iowa State	12	51	4.3	0	17
Wk 1	W 38-35vs North Dakota	11	55	5.0	0	13
Wk 2	L 21-24vs Army	7	30	4.3	0	15
Wk 5	W 34-20vs UCF	5	6	1.2	1	2
Wk 6	L 34-35@ Baylor	13	61	4.7	0	11
Wk 7	W 41-28vs TCU	27	110	4.1	0	21
Wk 9	W 42-17@ Kansas	20	69	3.5	0	11
Wk 10	L 20-43vs Texas Tech	10	25	2.5	0	19
Wk 12	W 14-6@ Oklahoma State	14	69	4.9	1	15
Wk 13	L 47-51@ Utah	24	293	12.2	3	80	Season-high 293 yds
Wk 14	W 24-14vs Colorado	26	142	5.5	3	27	3 rushing TDs
Total		169	911	4.7	8	80

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Kansas State9-4HC: Chris Klieman · Run-leaning

2025Kansas State6-6HC: Chris Klieman · Run-leaning, slow tempo

Season	Team
2025	Kansas State	169	911	5.4	8	--
2023	Kansas State	4	1	0.2	0	--
Career	2 loaded seasons	173	912	5.3	8	--

Season	Team
2025	Kansas State	22	119	5.4	1	--
2023	Kansas State	--	--	--	--	--
Career	2 loaded seasons	22	119	5.4	1	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 22 119 rec yds | #63/552 (89th pct)

Usage 26.0% 42.1% rush share | #37/738 (95th pct)

Rushing WEPA +0.03 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #325/362 (10th pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Rushing	Rushing yards	911	#50/735	93rd pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rush TD	8	#51/739	93rd pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing	Yards / carry	5.4	#206/735	72nd pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receptions	22	#63/552	89th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving yards	119	#132/548	76th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.03	#325/362	10th pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 153 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage	Role share	26.0%	#37/738	95th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing	Carries	169	#49/739	94th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	80	#23/733	97th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving LONG	19	#248/540	54th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Yards / catch	5.4	#384/548	30th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving TD	1	#60/552	89th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage	Rush share	42.1%	#51/738	93rd pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage	1st-down usage	28.5%	#48/738	94th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	2nd-down usage	27.9%	#28/738	96th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Standard-down usage	26.6%	#66/738	91st pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage	Passing-down usage	24.7%	#7/738	99th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage	3rd-down usage	19.3%	#31/738	96th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Pass share	9.2%	#42/738	94th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	1	#78/256	70th pct	Turnoversvs FBS RB

ALL-CONF HM

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16

Why he’s here

All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.

What moves him up

A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.

What moves him down

A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home7g	59.9	3.8	0.6
Road4g	123	6.3	1.0

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Wins6g	75.2	4.0	0.8
Losses5g	92.0	5.6	0.6

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	52.2	3.9	0.2
Weeks 8+5g	120	5.7	1.4

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

78All-Conference

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: long run (93rd). Strength: carries (86th).

Long run#22 / 349 · 93rd pct

80rush

Carries#49 / 349 · 86th pct

169rush

Rush yards#50 / 349 · 86th pct

911rush

Rush TDs#51 / 349 · 84th pct

8rush

Receptions#63 / 338 · 81st pct

22rece

Yards / carry#108 / 349 · 68th pct

5.4rush

Rec yards#123 / 338 · 63rd pct

119rece

Fumbles lost#55 / 201 · 49th pct

1fumb

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

EPA / dropback—

awaiting

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_rushing0.03Below (<p25) (n=178)Below (<p25) (n=184)Below (<p25) (n=362)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Joe JacksonKansas StateShomari LawrenceMissouri State· 94% simJevyon DuckerTemple· 89% simKewan LacyOle Miss· 89% sim

Long run

93
Jackson

83
Lawrence

66
Ducker

88
Lacy

Carries

86
Jackson

92
Lawrence

83
Ducker

100
Lacy

Rush yards

86
Jackson

90
Lawrence

81
Ducker

99
Lacy

Rush TDs

84
Jackson

80
Lawrence

80
Ducker

100
Lacy

Receptions

81
Jackson

75
Lawrence

82
Ducker

89
Lacy

Yards / carry

68
Jackson

58
Lawrence

62
Ducker

58
Lacy

Rec yards

63
Jackson

62
Lawrence

56
Ducker

79
Lacy

Fumbles lost

49
Jackson

49
Lawrence

49
Lacy

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Balanced Back

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Al-Jay Henderson’s 2022 season.

Al-Jay Henderson

80%match

Buffalo · 2022

Dominic Richardson

Oklahoma State · 2021

79%

Jaylen Wright

Tennessee · 2021

NFL Rd 4

77%

Telly Johnson Jr.

Northern Illinois · 2025

76%

Anderson Castle

App State · 2023

76%

Matches Al-Jay on

Yards / carry

EPA / carry (adj)

Yards / reception

Differs from Al-Jay on

Class year (lower)

Recruiting rating (higher)

Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to CJ Marable’s path through Coastal Carolina.

CJ Marable

96%match

Coastal Carolina · 2020

Maurice Burkley

Louisville · 2021

95%

Jordan Waters

NC State · 2024

94%

Corey Taylor II

Tulsa · 2020

93%

Julius Loughridge

Fordham · 2024

93%

Matches CJ on

Yards per carry

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Nolan Ray's junior season at Maryland (2025).

Nolan Ray

74%match

Maryland · 2025

Tank Bigsby

Auburn · 2022

All-SECNFL Rd 3 · Pk 25

68%

Isaiah Johnson

North Texas · 2022

67%

Bryson Washington

Baylor · 2025

All-Big 12

66%

Darius Taylor

Minnesota · 2025

All-Big Ten

66%

Matches Nolan on

Total rush EPA (college ability)

Receiving share

Height

Differs from Nolan on

Rush TD rate (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Chris Klieman

Pass share

46.4%

342 pass / 395 run

Plays / game

61.4

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.5%

288 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning, slow tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach

2023

Chris Klieman

Kansas State

2025

Chris Klieman

Kansas State

Played his entire career under Chris Klieman.

HometownHaines City, FL

Height6'0"

Weight212 lb

Class2

PositionRB

Jersey4

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries

🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2025)

All-Big 12

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
2025	All-Big 12	all_conference	Kansas State \| Big 12	RB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	Kansas State	RB2	#1665	#1546	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| Big 12
2023	Kansas State	RB2	#2275	#1943	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	Kansas State	Big 12	RB	2	No. 4 \| 6-0 \| 212 lb \| Haines City, FL
2024	Kansas State	Big 12	RB	2	No. 4 \| 6-0 \| 212 lb \| Haines City, FL
2023	Kansas State	Big 12	RB	2	No. 4 \| 6-0 \| 212 lb \| Haines City, FL

Joe Jackson

R07 · Impact starter

+91000%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Joe Jackson

How rival fanbases talk about Joe Jackson

Yards per carry

Why the honors trail matters

2025 Season · Final

RB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Balanced Back

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

1 all-conference honor

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline