The turning point:Knuth 10-yd TD run, Kansas State goes ahead 17-14 (Q3, 7:59). Arizona State went from 58% to 41% to win. Fans right then: “No coincidence the entire team implodes Boley comes in Team lacks faith he can deliver, Kenny has to see it” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arizona State a 25% chance, and the closing betting line (Arizona State was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.
Down to 29% in the third quarter, Arizona State came back to win.
Up to 71% in the third quarter, then Kansas State lost it.
FinalArizona State 28-17 Kansas StateArizona State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalKansas State 17-28 Arizona StateKansas State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The two plays that swung it
1Q3 7:59Knuth 10-yd TD run, Kansas State goes ahead 17-14Arizona State 58% → 41% (−17)
2Q4 14:55Mack 12-yd TD run, Arizona State goes ahead 21-17Arizona State 50% → 66% (+16)
The two plays that swung it
1Q3 7:59Knuth 10-yd TD run, Kansas State goes ahead 17-14Kansas State 42% → 59% (+17)
2Q4 14:55Mack 12-yd TD run, Arizona State goes ahead 21-17Kansas State 50% → 34% (−16)
How did Boley ever see the field this season? HOW? I ask again, how?
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 9:48Arizona State fans celebrate Keene's touchdown drive and criticize starting BoleyInsane how different the offense looks when boley is outr/CFB game threadSeriously why wasn’t this dude starting from Week 1, everything about this offense is so much better now I want Boley tried for War Crimesr/CFB game thread
Q2 1:02Fans argue replay missed ground hit as Boley enters after Keene injury*and somehow Boley returned*r/CFB game threadThat's game if Boley goes in.r/CFB game thread
Q3 15:00ASU fans boo Boley after he is sacked by Bryantimma drive to the stadium just to boo cutter rnr/CFB game thread
Q3 10:01Lockett returns punt 27 yards as fans celebrate the special teams playBaby Lockett!r/CFB game thread
Q3 7:59Arizona State fans boo Boley and demand freshman Fette replace himNo coincidence the entire team implodes Boley comes in Team lacks faith he can deliver, Kenny has to see itr/CFB game threadBoley is not playing well and he’s being booed, I think it’s time for Fette.r/CFB game thread
Q3 2:57Arizona State fans celebrate Fette replacing Boley as quarterbackIt’s crazy how the offense suddenly comes to life as soon as anyone not named Cutter Boley plays QB, and completely unravels as soon as Boley plays.r/CFB game thread
Q4 6:23ASU defense breaks up Knuth pass, fans celebrate Mack and dropped picksAs Mack scored that 4th TD, cut to Cam Skattebo ghost face looking down from heaven with a smile.r/CFB game thread
Arizona State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Kansas State -1.5), at 48% for Arizona State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Arizona State or Kansas State flair (677 and 462); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Arizona State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
How Kansas State fans took it: “Also, ASU, thank you for having a black alternate uniform that still incorporates at least one of your school colors unlike some school....*cough* Iowa State…” r/CFB game thread
How fans reacted
Quiet
Fans saved their loudest stretch for the fourth quarter.
Kansas State 17, Arizona State 14 · Arizona State 41% to win
no rain · wind 10 mph from the northwest, mostly across the field, gusts to 22 · 77°
Knuth 10-yd TD run, Kansas State goes ahead 17-14
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Phoenix/sky Harbor airport, 4.6 miles away, and Mesa/falcon Field, 12 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Kansas State · 4-2
Rated 32nd in our preseason ratings, 42nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Arizona State’s passing EPA against Kansas State’s defense
Arizona State offense, 22nd percentile · Kansas State defense, 74th
Arizona State’s explosive plays against Kansas State’s defense
Arizona State offense, 46th percentile · Kansas State defense, 5th
Arizona State’s success rate against Kansas State’s defense
Arizona State offense, 47th percentile · Kansas State defense, 89th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Kansas StateArizona State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Arizona State leads the series 6-1
7 meetings since 1964 · Arizona State won the last meeting
2024Arizona State 24-14
2002 · neutral siteKansas State 34-27
1989Arizona State 31-0
1982Arizona State 30-7
1972Arizona State 56-14
Each line is Arizona State’s chance to win through that meeting. Arizona State is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Arizona State fans are in a better mood than Kansas State fans (77th percentile vs 66th among FBS fanbases), even with Kansas State favored.
Model · 25%
Line · 45%
Arizona State fans · 77th
Kansas State fans · 66th
Kansas State favored by 1.5 · Total 51.5
How games like this usually go
Kansas State by 1.5, on the usual path until 1:50 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Arizona State.
The total fell 5 points.
Spread: +3 → +1.5 · Total: 56.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.6%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Arizona State is worth +1.9 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 15th percentile.
62% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (29-18 home, 17-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.5 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 941 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Arizona State 28-17 Kansas State
Arizona State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.