BYU 27-20 Arizona State (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Arizona State · BYU

Arizona State4-420

No. 8 BYU7-127Final

Sat, Oct 31 · LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah · Crowd 63,332

No. 8 BYU beat Arizona State 27-20.

We had BYU favored. It won.

Next: Arizona State vs Colorado, Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · Arizona State favored by 3

Next: BYU at Utah, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET · BYU underdog by 5.5

I don't think I've ever been more confused by a review...how do they even review it 2x???

A BYU fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave BYU an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (BYU was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.

Favored the whole way: BYU never fell below 85%.

Arizona State never had better than a 15% chance.

FinalBYU 27-20 Arizona StateBYU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.09 in of rain

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

If you’re relying on the refs to call the game your way to win then you don’t deserve to win.

Q3 2:47 · A BYU fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 0:42A penalty was called for roughing the snapper.Bro climbed on him lolr/CFB game thread
Q3 3:06A receiver made an impressive catch.WHAT A CATCH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAr/CFB game thread
Q3 2:47Officials rule defensive pass interference on Fette's touchdown pass to MillerThey call that DPI? After everything else they've let go?r/CFB game thread
Q4 6:40BYU fans celebrate Bachmeier's deep pass to Glasker as ASU fans despairIts the hope that gets your/CFB game thread
Q4 0:40BYU fails to kneel, leaving one second on the clock after an incomplete passGet the Michigan clock operator in here!!r/CFB game thread

BYU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (BYU -17.5), at 91% for BYU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a BYU or Arizona State flair (1,025 and 903); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.09 in of rain, heaviest in the first quarter. Measured at Provo Muni (awos) airport, 4.5 miles away. Full conditions below.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show BYU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

BYU scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Arizona State on 4 of its 11.

BYU’s drives are teal, Arizona State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

How fans reacted

Steady

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

BYU fans

special“The fact that our offense is cheeks and our defense is cheeks sometimes makes me forget our special teams is cheeks as well”

Arizona State fans

fette“Bro watching Fette lay the wood on that LB made this whole season worth it”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, run, review.

What it cost

BYU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 18% to 20%.

Make the playoff

Arizona State · lost0% → 0%

BYU · won18% → ▲20%

Win the conference

Arizona State · lost0% → 0%

BYU · won16% → ▲17%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

BYU plays at Utah on Sat Nov 7 with a 20% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

BYU 27, Arizona State 20

Arizona State covered +17.5 by 10.5. The total, 47, went over 46.5.

Team totals	Arizona State	BYU
Total yards	279	283
Passing	22 of 42, 166 yds	19 of 30, 236 yds
Rushing	34 for 113 yds	30 for 47 yds
First downs	20	18
Third down	6 of 17	3 of 13
Fourth down	2 of 2	3 of 4
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	6 for 61 yds	2 for 19 yds
Time of possession	31:25	28:35

Arizona State leaders

Passing Jake Fette 22 of 42, 166 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Cardae Mack 23 for 123 yds; Kyson Brown 2 for 8 yds
Receiving Derek Eusebio 7 for 48 yds; Cardae Mack 5 for 47 yds

BYU leaders

Passing Bear Bachmeier 19 of 30, 236 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Sione I Moa 8 for 20 yds, 2 TD; Bear Bachmeier 16 for 15 yds
Receiving Legend Glasker 4 for 87 yds; Kyler Kasper 4 for 57 yds, 1 TD

Rain through most of the game

56° at kickoff · 0.09 in of rain

The usual here around this date is 49°, with about 7 in 10 games between 39° and 64°.

October game-day temperatures at LaVell Edwards Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:53 left1:36 p.m.

Arizona State 0, BYU 0 · BYU 91% to win

no rain · 56°

Mack 9-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Provo Muni (awos) airport, 4.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Arizona State · 4-3

Rated 54th in our preseason ratings, 71st now, down 17 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 11-point win over Kansas State as a 1.5-point underdog.

W 28-17 vs Kansas State No. 51 of 668 teams

won by 11 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 25-53 @ Texas TechTop 25 No. 9 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 16.5-point underdog

W 30-12 vs Hawai'i No. 130 of 668 teams

won by 18 as a 20.5-point favorite

L 19-55 vs Baylor No. 29 of 668 teams

lost by 36 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 24-17 @ Kansas No. 83 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 20-48 @ Texas A&MTop 25 No. 6 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 15.5-point underdog

W 70-7 vs Morgan State No. 223 of 668 teams

won by 63 as a 43.5-point favorite

Last three games

BYU · 6-1

Rated 9th in our preseason ratings, 14th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog.

L 31-39 @ UCF No. 57 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 28-24 vs Notre DameTop 25 No. 2 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 24-10 vs Iowa State No. 107 of 668 teams

won by 14 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 17-10 @ TCU No. 41 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 41-23 @ Colorado State No. 76 of 668 teams

won by 18 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 28-17 vs ArizonaTop 25 No. 27 of 668 teams

won by 11 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Utah Tech No. 224 of 668 teams

won by 56 as a 50.5-point favorite

Week by week

BYU

Wk 3Wat Colorado State41-23
Wk 5Wat TCU17-10
Wk 6Wvs Iowa State24-10
Wk 7Wvs Notre Dame28-24
Wk 8Lat UCF31-39

Arizona State

Wk 3Wat Kansas24-17
Wk 5Lvs Baylor19-55
Wk 6Wvs Hawai'i30-12
Wk 7Lat Texas Tech25-53
Wk 8Wvs Kansas State28-17

Power rating by week

BYU is rated 9.0 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Arizona State’s passing EPA against BYU, 58 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Arizona State’s passing EPA against BYU’s defense
Arizona State offense, 21st percentile · BYU defense, 79th
Arizona State’s EPA/play against BYU’s defense
Arizona State offense, 23rd percentile · BYU defense, 72nd
Arizona State’s explosive plays against BYU’s defense
Arizona State offense, 31st percentile · BYU defense, 81st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Arizona StateBYU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Arizona State leads the series 21-8

29 meetings since 1935 · Arizona State won the last meeting

2024Arizona State 28-23
2021BYU 27-17
1998BYU 26-6
1997BYU 13-10
1995Arizona State 29-21

Each line is BYU’s chance to win through that meeting. BYU is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Arizona State fans are in a better mood than BYU fans (58th percentile vs 8th among FBS fanbases), even with BYU favored.

BYU favored by 17.5 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

BYU by 17.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 274 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The total fell 5 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

BYU is worth +3.0 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 30th percentile.

76% at home, 62% on the road against FBS opponents (34-11 home, 29-18 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

4,633 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 472 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

BYU4th3-1
Arizona State9th2-2

Full Big 12 standings

No. 8 BYU beats Arizona State 27-20