UCF upsets No. 2 BYU 39-31 in 2 overtimes
UCF beat No. 2 BYU 39-31 in 2 overtimes as a 7.5-point underdog. Share this game
We had BYU favored. UCF won.
Next: BYU vs Arizona State, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · BYU favored by 16.5
Next: UCF vs Baylor, Fri Oct 30 · 7:30 PM ET · UCF favored by 1.5
How it swung
The turning point: Jenkins 25-yd TD pass to Derry, ties it 31-31 (OT). UCF went from 16% to 54% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UCF a 19% chance, and the closing betting line (UCF was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.
UCF 39-31 BYU
UCF wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.BYU 31-39 UCFBYU lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:424th and 1Jenkins 0-yd run, turnover on downsUCF 58% → 35% (−23)
- 2OTJenkins 25-yd TD pass to Derry, ties it 31-31UCF 16% → 54% (+38)
- 32OTJenkins 4-yd TD pass to Brousseau, UCF goes ahead 39-31UCF 69% → 92% (+23)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:424th and 1Jenkins 0-yd run, turnover on downsBYU 42% → 65% (+23)
- 2OTJenkins 25-yd TD pass to Derry, ties it 31-31BYU 84% → 46% (−38)
- 32OTJenkins 4-yd TD pass to Brousseau, UCF goes ahead 39-31BYU 31% → 8% (−23)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (BYU -7.5), at 38% for UCF (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
UCF scored on 6 of its 12 drives; BYU on 5 of its 12.
UCF’s drives are teal, BYU’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From BYU’s side
BYU’s best moment: Jenkins 0-yd run, turnover on downs (Q4 1:42). It lifted BYU’s win chance by 23 points.
7 lead changes. Too close to call on 57% of plays. The winner fell to 14%.
What it cost
BYU’s chance to make the playoff fell from 27% to 16%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
BYU plays vs Arizona State on Sat Oct 31 with a 16% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
UCF 39, BYU 31
UCF covered +7.5 by 15.5. The total, 70, went over 43.5.
| Team totals | BYU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 373 | 463 |
| Passing | 16 of 32, 257 yds | 25 of 42, 293 yds |
| Rushing | 36 for 116 yds | 41 for 170 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 26 |
| Third down | 8 of 17 | 9 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 5 for 46 yds | 5 for 40 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:25 | 32:35 |
BYU leaders
- Passing Bear Bachmeier 16 of 32, 257 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Preston Rex 5 for 42 yds; Bear Bachmeier 15 for 37 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Kyler Kasper 6 for 129 yds, 1 TD; Legend Glasker 4 for 54 yds, 1 TD
UCF leaders
- Passing Keyone Jenkins 25 of 41, 293 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Duke Watson 15 for 94 yds; Keyone Jenkins 11 for 35 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Tyren Hornes 6 for 137 yds; Joshua Derry 6 for 54 yds, 1 TD
No rain, gusts to 35 mph
79° at kickoff · 0.02 in of rain · wind 15 mph from the north, mostly along the field, gusts to 35
A 35 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 98% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
October game-day temperatures at FBC Mortgage Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
The same game in two conditions
| Wind 15 mph or more | Lighter wind | |
|---|---|---|
| Runs and passes | 77 | 72 |
| Share that were passes | 45% | 53% |
| Yards per play | 6.3 | 4.6 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
How this is counted
Wind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.Where this weather comes from
Measured at Orlando/herndon airport, 9.5 miles away, and Sanford/orlando airport, 12 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
BYU · 6-0
Rated 9th in our preseason ratings, 11th now.
Three straight wins, capped by a 4-point win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog.
Last three games
UCF · 3-3
Rated 103rd in our preseason ratings, 68th now, up 35 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 8-point win over TCU as a 3.5-point underdog.
L 7-12 @ PittsburghTop 25 No. 48 of 668 teams
lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog
Week by week
UCF
- Wk 2Lat Pittsburgh7-12
- Wk 3Wvs Georgia State44-30
- Wk 4Wvs TCU21-13
- Wk 5Lat Houston17-27
- Wk 6Lat Oklahoma State28-42
BYU
- Wk 2Wvs Arizona28-17
- Wk 3Wat Colorado State41-23
- Wk 5Wat TCU17-10
- Wk 6Wvs Iowa State24-10
- Wk 7Wvs Notre Dame28-24
Power rating by week
BYU is rated 9.9 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: UCF’s passing EPA against BYU, 38 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UCF’s passing EPA against BYU’s defense
UCF offense, 36th percentile · BYU defense, 74th
BYU’s success rate against UCF’s defense
BYU offense, 88th percentile · UCF defense, 57th
BYU’s explosive plays against UCF’s defense
BYU offense, 42nd percentile · UCF defense, 73rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
BYU leads the series 4-1
5 meetings since 2011 · BYU has won the last 3
- 2025BYU 41-21
- 2024BYU 37-24
- 2020 · neutral siteBYU 49-23
- 2014UCF 31-24
- 2011BYU 24-17
Each line is UCF’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
BYU fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (55th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 19%
- Line · 27%
- UCF fans · 57th
- BYU fans · 55th
BYU favored by 7.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
BYU by 7.5, on the usual path until Q3 6:52
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 416 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward UCF.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +9.5 → +7.5 · Total: 45.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
UCF is worth +6.3 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.
75% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (36-12 home, 19-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,901 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.