The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Southern 38%, Grambling 49%, Florida A&M 67%
Win out 12% · expect 1.5 of 3 more wins
Bethune-Cookman's chance to win each game left, from our model: Southern 38%, Grambling 49%, Florida A&M 67%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Tyler Jefferson 609 · Rushing Rashon Brown 784 · Receiving Josh Evans 314 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | @UCF | L 6-73 120 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Jefferson 55 · Rush Daniel 65 · Rec Shaw II 40 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Stetson | W 43-18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Jones 93 · Rush Brown 60 · Rec Evans 75 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Virginia Lynchburg | W 62-3 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Jefferson 82 · Rush Daniel 131 · Rec Evans 62 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | South Carolina State | L 21-31 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Jefferson 96 · Rush Jefferson 57 · Rec Evans 65 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Alabama State | W 16-10 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Jefferson 51 · Rush Brown 260 · Rec Anderson 26 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Alabama A&M | L 17-55 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Jefferson 25 · Rush Brown 97 · Rec Anderson 21 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Mississippi Valley State | W 34-14 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Jefferson 109 · Rush Brown 69 · Rec Shaw II 80 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Jackson State | W 24-21 | 5-3 | 3-1 | Pass Jefferson 113 · Rush Johnson 81 · Rec Shaw II 41 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L 21-63 | 5-4 | 3-2 | Pass Patterson 108 · Rush Brown 87 · Rec Evans 52 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Southern | 3 pm ET38% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Grambling | 1 pm ET49% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Florida A&M (N) | 3:30 pm ET67% to win |
Win chances are our model for Bethune-Cookman, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L 21-63 | — | — | — | −0.337 | 40.0% | 1.00 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Jackson State | W 24-21 | — | — | — | −0.007 | 34.9% | 1.39 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Mississippi Valley State | W 34-14 | — | — | — | +0.007 | 38.0% | 1.02 | |
| Oct 10 | @Alabama A&M | L 17-55 | — | — | — | −0.210 | 36.8% | 0.79 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 3 | Alabama State | W 16-10 | — | — | — | +0.142 | 44.6% | 1.03 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | South Carolina State | L 21-31 | — | — | — | +0.133 | 32.1% | 1.69 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | Virginia Lynchburg | W 62-3 | — | — | — | +0.608 | 68.2% | 1.03 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Stetson | W 43-18 | — | — | — | +0.167 | 37.7% | 1.37 | |
| Sep 3 | @UCF | L 6-73 | 181 | 2 | 31:55 | −0.163 | 21.0% | 1.22 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (9 games) | 181 | 2.0 | +0.038 | 39.3% | 1.17 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Bethune-Cookman · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 11%; 6 wins 38%; 7 wins 39%; 8 wins 12%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among SWAC teams the same season
Bethune-Cookman is 5-4 and plays at Southern next.
Bethune-Cookman is 5-4 and plays at Southern next.
Range of outcomes · Bethune-Cookman · 2026