3-5, won 2 straight, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.
Now
Career arc
This week Wed Nov 4
- Last gameW 34-17 vs. Sacramento State Sat Oct 24
- This season3-5 won 2 straight
- Hot seat24% 16th of 132
- On track for5-7 regular season
- Nextat Massachusetts Wed Nov 4
- Stature132nd of 138 FBS programs
Win and he’s at 19%. Lose and he’s at 26%.
at Massachusetts, Wed Nov 4, 7 pm ET ESPNU · Massachusetts is 4-4 · First meeting between Uremovich and Joe Harasymiak as head coaches · Ball State’s chance to win: 48% (the site’s model)
- If Ball State wins: 19%, 22nd of 132
- Now: 24%
- If Ball State loses: 26%, 12th of 132
Is he getting fired?
24% chance he’s out after the season · 16th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot
If he finishes…
Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out
- 3-932%
- 4-825%
- 5-718%
- 6-612%
- 7-58%
Why his number is where it is
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
Now hotter than at this point in 2025.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
Hottest: 2026, week 6 (37%, 8th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-5, outscored by 124
Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
- ▲ Hotter3-5, outscored by 106
- ▲ Hotter$1.2M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 1.7× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
- ▲ Hotter4-8 over his previous season here
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
- Were 3-5 after 8 games
- 18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
- Were in year 2, after 8 games
- 5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Offense: 62nd of 138 per play. Defense: 132nd.
4 games left
- Wed Nov 4at Massachusetts (4-4)ESPNU48%
- Wed Nov 11vs. Buffalo (6-3)42%
- Tue Nov 17at Ohio (7-2)19%
- Sat Nov 28vs. Central Michigan (3-5)50%
Percent: Ball State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Ball State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlines
- Oct 19–25W 34-17 vs. Sacramento State0 headlines
- Oct 12–18W 32-31 at Bowling Green0 headlines
- Oct 5–11L 14-45 at Northwestern0 headlines
- Sep 28–Oct 4L 24-39 vs. Toledo0 headlines
- Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 13-26 at Kent State0 headlines
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Ball State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
Fans
No fan talk about him on our list yet. His record is on Career.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
0-1 against his rivals.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Called about what the situation called for.
709 run and pass snaps at Ball State, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Building the roster
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His one ranked Ball State class of his own finished #113 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 91 of 117 players. The other 26 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 22% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 32% of the 114 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 13 of 40 signees (32%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 12 states in all. Next: IL (5).
65% of his signees come from IN and its 4 border states (IL 5, OH 4, KY 2, MI 2).
Off this map: 4 signees to the west (KS 3, CA) and 1 to the south (FL).
- median hometown distance
- 165 mi
- within 100 mi
- 33%
- within 500 mi
- 76%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 8%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
News
No headlines named him in the last 7 days
In his own words
Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.
Career
Hires into jobs like this
Hired into programs rated 8 to 9 (Regional Program V tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
- Mike Neu20164–8-1.1
- Pete Lembo20116–6-1.4
- Brady Hoke20034–8-1.2
- Bill Lynch19957–4+0.0
- Paul Schudel19854–7-2.7
- Dwight Wallace197810–1+2.5
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Followed Mike Neu (2016–2024).
| Season | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||
| Record | 4-8 | 3-5 | |
| Postseason | — | — | |
| Coordinators | |||
| OC | — | — | |
| DC | Jeff Knowles | Jeff Knowles | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||
| Offense | 3 | 58 | |
| Defense | 51 | 11 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||
| 1st-down pass% | 33.3 | 41.1 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 40.0 | 40.9 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 45.5 | 31.6 | |
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
AI Narratives — “Ball State — stat check”.
How good is he so far?
Coordinator years
Offensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.