Miami (OH) beats Central Michigan 28-27
Team pages: Miami (OH) · Central Michigan
Miami (OH) beat Central Michigan 28-27. Share this game
We had Miami (OH) favored. It won.
Next: Miami (OH) vs Buffalo, Tue Nov 3 · 7:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Heavner intercepted by Taylor at the Miami (OH) 46 and returned for a TD (Q3, 13:24). Miami (OH) went from 67% to 39% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami (OH) a 62% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami (OH) was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.
Down to 16% in the fourth quarter, Miami (OH) came back to win.
Up to 84% in the fourth quarter, then Central Michigan lost it.
Central Michigan · Q3 13:24
Miami (OH) 28-27 Central MichiganMiami (OH) wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Central Michigan 27-28 Miami (OH)Central Michigan lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:57InterceptionHeavner intercepted by McCalla at the CMU25, returned 38 yardsMiami (OH) 78% → 53% (−25)
- 2Q3 13:24InterceptionPenaltyHeavner intercepted by Taylor at the Miami (OH) 46 and returned for a TDMiami (OH) 67% → 39% (−28)
- 3Q4 1:41Jones 2-yd TD run, Miami (OH) goes ahead 28-27Miami (OH) 38% → 60% (+22)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:57InterceptionHeavner intercepted by McCalla at the CMU25, returned 38 yardsCentral Michigan 22% → 47% (+25)
- 2Q3 13:24InterceptionPenaltyHeavner intercepted by Taylor at the Miami (OH) 46 and returned for a TDCentral Michigan 33% → 61% (+28)
- 3Q4 1:41Jones 2-yd TD run, Miami (OH) goes ahead 28-27Central Michigan 62% → 40% (−22)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Miami (OH) -3.5), at 43% for Miami (OH) (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Miami (OH) scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Central Michigan on 4 of its 11.
Miami (OH)’s drives are teal, Central Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Central Michigan’s side
Central Michigan’s best moment: Heavner intercepted by Taylor at the Miami (OH) 46 and returned for a TD (Q3 13:24). It lifted Central Michigan’s win chance by 28 points.
7 lead changes. Too close to call on 60% of plays.
What it cost
Miami (OH)’s chance to win the conference rose from 7% to 10%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Miami (OH) plays vs Buffalo on Tue Nov 3 with a 10% chance to win the conference. Central Michigan plays vs Eastern Michigan on Wed Nov 4 with a 0% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Miami (OH) 28, Central Michigan 27
Central Michigan covered +3.5 by 2.5. The total, 55, went over 41.5.
| Team totals | Miami (OH) | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 360 | 285 |
| Passing | 18 of 33, 221 yds | 18 of 31, 221 yds |
| Rushing | 36 for 139 yds | 29 for 64 yds |
| First downs | 25 | 16 |
| Third down | 6 of 12 | 6 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 7 for 69 yds | 10 for 83 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:12 | 28:48 |
Miami (OH) leaders
- Passing Caleb Heavner 18 of 33, 221 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Caleb Heavner 15 for 58 yds, 1 TD; Rodney Nelson 10 for 43 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Maleek Huggins 7 for 122 yds; Damarion Witten 3 for 41 yds, 1 TD
Central Michigan leaders
- Passing Jadyn Glasser 18 of 31, 221 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Jayden Clerveaux 9 for 32 yds; Vaughn Blue 10 for 25 yds
- Receiving Langston Lewis 10 for 163 yds, 1 TD; Braylen Naves 3 for 21 yds
No rain through the game
54° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 51°, with about 7 in 10 games between 41° and 66°.
October game-day temperatures at Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Mount Pleasant airport, 3.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Miami (OH) · 4-3
Rated 78th in our preseason ratings, 98th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Central Michigan · 3-4
Rated 120th in our preseason ratings, 123rd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Central Michigan
- Wk 3Wvs Wyoming24-10
- Wk 4Lat Miami3-52
- Wk 5Wvs Akron41-17
- Wk 6Lat Ohio14-31
- Wk 7Lvs Western Michigan14-21
Miami (OH)
- Wk 3Lat Cincinnati31-35
- Wk 4Wvs UConn24-21
- Wk 5Lvs Bowling Green20-24
- Wk 6Wat Massachusetts20-19
- Wk 7Wvs Akron34-14
Power rating by week
Miami (OH) is rated 2.0 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Miami (OH)’s rushing EPA against Central Michigan, 61 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Miami (OH)’s rushing EPA against Central Michigan’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 72nd percentile · Central Michigan defense, 11th
Central Michigan’s success rate against Miami (OH)’s defense
Central Michigan offense, 11th percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 42nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Miami (OH) leads the series 17-13-1
31 meetings since 1978 · Miami (OH) has won the last 5
- 2024Miami (OH) 46-7
- 2021Miami (OH) 28-17
- 2019 · neutral siteMiami (OH) 26-21
- 2017Miami (OH) 31-14
- 2016Miami (OH) 37-17
Each line is Central Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Central Michigan is 0-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Miami (OH) fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (55th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Miami (OH) favored by 3.5 · Total 41.5
How games like this usually go
Miami (OH) by 3.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 395 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward Miami (OH).
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −1.5 → +3.5 · Total: 42.5 → 41.5
The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Central Michigan is worth +7.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile.
55% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (22-18 home, 13-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 280 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Central Michigan8th1-2
- Miami (OH)7th2-1