Matt Drinkall

Head coach · Central Michigan
2nd season · since 2025

At school10-11since 2025 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatCool5% · 55th of 132 jobsLast gameL 27-28vs Miami (OH) · Oct 24Nextvs Eastern MichiganWed Nov 4 · 7:30 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, lost 3 straight, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

2025GameAbove Sports BowlL 7-34

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 27-28 vs. Miami (OH) Sat Oct 24
  • This season3-5 lost 3 straight
  • Hot seat5% 55th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. Eastern Michigan Wed Nov 4
  • Stature111th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 6%.

vs. Eastern Michigan, Wed Nov 4, 7:30 pm ET ESPN2 · Eastern Michigan is 4-5 · Drinkall vs. Chris Creighton: 1-0 · Central Michigan’s chance to win: 52% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Central Michigan wins: 4%, 64th of 132Now: 5%If Central Michigan loses: 6%, 48th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Central Michigan wins: 4%, 64th of 132
  • Now: 5%
  • If Central Michigan loses: 6%, 48th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

5% chance he’s out after the season · 55th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow3% had they won3% had they wonLoss 6%Win 4%7%9%8%5%5%3%4%4%5%Pre1L at New MexicoL2W vs. ColgateW3W vs. WyomingW4L at MiamiL5W vs. AkronW6L at OhioL7L vs. Western MichiganL8L vs. Miami (OH)L9Chance to win vs. Eastern Michigan52%10Chance to win vs. Sacramento State78%11Chance to win at Buffalo38%12Chance to win at Ball State50%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow3% had they wonLoss 6%Win 4%7%5%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-912%
  2. 4-87%
  3. 5-74%
  4. 6-62%
  5. 7-51%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 111th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 80th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 74th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 4%, 74th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 5%, 66th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 55th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 64
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,000,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.2× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 100th of 138 per play. Defense: 108th.

Offense, per play100thPassing offense134thDefense, per play108thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule127thWorstBest
Offense, per play100th of 138Passing offense134th of 138Defense, per play108th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule127th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Central Michigan. The other two rows are where Central Michigan stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Wed Nov 4vs. Eastern Michigan (4-5)ESPN252%
  2. Wed Nov 11vs. Sacramento State (2-7)ESPNU78%
  3. Wed Nov 18at Buffalo (6-3)38%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Ball State (3-5)50%

Percent: Central Michigan’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Central Michigan stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

104th110th116thPreseason110thNew Mexico L 7-38New Mexico L 7-38L 7-38New Mexico110thColgate W 13-10Colgate W 13-10W 13-10Colgate111thWyoming W 24-10Wyoming W 24-10W 24-10Wyoming111thMiami L 3-52Miami L 3-52L 3-52Miami110thAkron W 41-17Akron W 41-17W 41-17Akron110thOhio L 14-31Ohio L 14-31L 14-31Ohio111thWestern Michigan L 14-21Western Michigan L 14-21L 14-21Western Michi…110thMiami (OH) L 27-28Miami (OH) L 27-28L 27-28Miami (OH)111th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlinesMatt Drinkall Post Game Press Conference (Miami, Ohio) - Chippewas All-Access - Powered by SIDEARM Showcase Central Michigan University Athletics
  2. Oct 19–25L 27-28 vs. Miami (OH)4 headlines · 65th of 138
  3. Oct 12–18L 14-21 vs. Western Michigan0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 14-31 at Ohio0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 41-17 vs. Akron0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 3-52 at Miami0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Central Michigan’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

6%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled36th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $622,450 in 2025, the 3rd percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
  • ▲ Higher
    His age is not on file · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 3-5, outscored by 8.0 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.