The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Ed Orgeron

Ed Orgeron kept LSU a national power for 6 seasons.

The ascent
67–47
2005–2021 · 3 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerOLE MISSUSCLSUDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelOle Miss, 2005: 3-8, National Program II2005Ole Miss, 2006: 4-8, National Program II2006Ole Miss, 2007: 3-9, National Program III2007-9.1USC, 2013: 6-2, Blue Blood2013-3.2LSU, 2016: 6-2, Blue Blood2016LSU, 2017: 9-4, Blue Blood2017LSU, 2018: 10-3, Blue Blood2018LSU, 2019: 15-0, Blue Blood2019LSU, 2020: 5-5, Blue Blood2020LSU, 2021: 6-6, Blue Blood2021+6.4One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Blue Blood in his 4th career season — faster than 43% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #52 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Ole Miss, 3 seasons
−9.1
National Program II → National Program III.
LSU, 6 seasons
+6.4
Blue Blood → Blue Blood.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%LSU2016–2021▲ 10.5pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
LSU19.0pt#15 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

13–10 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Houston Nutt.

Rivalry record
13–10
56.5% · 7 rivals
One-score games
16–14
53.3% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–3
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Ole Miss4–0100%
Alabama1–325%
Arkansas3–0100%
Texas A&M1–233%
Memphis3–0100%
LSU0–30%
The toughest matchup
vs. Houston Nutt0–3
3 meetings, 2005–2007
’05 L’06 L’07 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–3 0.0%
Blue Blood
3–4 42.9%
Power Program
15–17 46.9%
National Program
7–4 63.6%
Regional Program
12–7 63.2%

Coaching career

2016–2021
LSUsustainer
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Ed Orgeron kept LSU a national power for 6 seasons.

2nd-best LSU tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-4.5 pts
#132 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+2.2 pts
#89 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Brian Kelly (2022–2025).

Season201620172018201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record6–29–410–315–05–56–6
PostseasonW CFPL bowlW bowlCHAMPIONL bowl
Recruiting rank#2#7#15#5#4#4
Style — pass rate
Pass rate39.434.840.752.553.849.9
Coordinators
OCCam CameronMatt CanadaSteve EnsmingerSteve EnsmingerSteve EnsmingerJake Peetz
DCDave ArandaDave ArandaDave ArandaDave ArandaBo PeliniDaronte Jones
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense8083531003737
Defense936189831581
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%36.029.640.660.749.748.0
Red-zone pass%26.921.926.948.543.054.1
4th-down go%opp. territory15.411.416.720.629.445.2
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
2
3.5★ avg rating
Portal departures
14
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-12
#182 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 195 lbs
across 1 of 2 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-1.2 lbs
#240 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: LA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
7.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
44.0
position-weighted
Net
-36.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Mike Jones Jr. (LB) from Clemson
Biggest loss: T.J. Finley (QB) to Auburn
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Matt Canada → Steve Ensminger · 2018
83rd pct53rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 29.6% → 40.6% (+11.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 17% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Dave Aranda → Bo Pelini · 2020
83rd pct15th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
225 lbs
6′4″ avg · #72 of 767 · more than most
Running back
220 lbs
5′11″ avg · #43 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
202 lbs
6′1″ avg · #71 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
259 lbs
6′6″ avg · #29 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
316 lbs
6′5″ avg · #116 of 779 · more than most
Edge
282 lbs
6′4″ avg · #2 of 188 · more than most
Linebacker
239 lbs
6′3″ avg · #41 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
194 lbs
6′1″ avg · #192 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2016: Beat Louisville 29–9 CFP2017: Lost to Notre Dame 17–21 Citrus Bowl Presented By Overton's2018: Beat UCF 40–32 Playstation Fiesta Bowl2019: Beat Oklahoma 63–28 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl - Cfp Semifinal2019: Beat Clemson 42–25 Cfp National Championship Pres. By At&T2021: Lost to Kansas State 20–42 TaxAct Texas Bowl

54 NFL Draft picks: Deion Jones (2016), Jerald Hawkins (2016), Rashard Robinson (2016), Jalen Mills (2016), Vadal Alexander (2016), Leonard Fournette (2017), Jamal Adams (2017), Tre'Davious White (2017) + 46 more

3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Derek Stingley Jr. (2020), Cade York (2020), Zach Von Rosenberg (2020)

51–20
2013–2013
USCinheritor
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Ed Orgeron inherited a Blue Blood USC and won with it.

7th-best USC tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Steve Sarkisian (2014–2014).

7 NFL Draft picks: Robert Woods (2013), T.J. McDonald (2013), Matt Barkley (2013), Khaled Holmes (2013), Marqise Lee (2014), Marcus Martin (2014), Devon Kennard (2014)

6–2
2005–2007
Ole Misscaretaker
National Program I → National Program II
Ed Orgeron slid Ole Miss from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.

15th-best Ole Miss tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed David Cutcliffe (1998–2004) · succeeded by Houston Nutt (2008–2011).

6 NFL Draft picks: Chris Spencer (2005), Marcus Johnson (2005), Rick Razzano (2005), Tre' Stallings (2006), Patrick Willis (2007), Trumaine McBride (2007)

10–25

Defining games during this era

2019 NCG · LSU 42, Clemson 25

In this company

Other coaches who reached Blue-Blood-or-better at multiple programs: Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Lane Kiffin.