Alabama 31-20 Texas A&M (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Texas A&M · Alabama

Texas A&M4-420

No. 13 Alabama6-231Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala. · Crowd 100,077

No. 13 Alabama beat Texas A&M 31-20.

We had Alabama favored. It won.

Next: Texas A&M at South Carolina, Sat Nov 7

Next: Alabama at LSU, Sat Nov 7 · Alabama underdog by 3.5

Did he shotgun the football like it was beer or a juice box?

An Alabama fan

How it swung

The turning point: Russell 5-yd TD pass to Pritchett, Alabama goes ahead 24-20 (Q4, 14:55). Alabama went from 71% to 87% to win. Fans right then: “Wasn't even on Reed.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alabama an 80% chance, and the closing betting line (Alabama was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.

Favored the whole way: Alabama never fell below 59%.

Texas A&M never had better than a 40% chance.

Pick-six

Alabama · Q1 11:24

FinalAlabama 31-20 Texas A&MAlabama wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 1:38Fumble4th and 1Reed 0-yd run, fumblesAlabama 62% → 76% (+14)
2Q4 14:55Russell 5-yd TD pass to Pritchett, Alabama goes ahead 24-20Alabama 71% → 87% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 1:38Fumble4th and 1Reed 0-yd run, fumblesTexas A&M 38% → 24% (−14)
2Q4 14:55Russell 5-yd TD pass to Pritchett, Alabama goes ahead 24-20Texas A&M 29% → 13% (−16)

If that’s targeting we’ve lost the plot

Q2 3:00 · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 12:26Dijon Lee gets penalty then intercepts Reed for touchdownReed found out how to throw a TD it seems…r/CFB game thread
Q2 3:00Russell throws interception to Ricks after targeting flagTargeting has come so far since Jalen Hurts got obliterated for a fumble 6 against Ole Missr/CFB game thread
Q3 2:28Fans criticize the terrible snap spot and Reed's fumble on 4th downWasn't even on Reed.r/CFB game threadTerrible spot and not even reeds fault that time, god awful from Nabour/CFB game thread

Alabama’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Alabama -13.5), at 89% for Alabama (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Alabama or Texas A&M flair (1,108 and 2,463); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Alabama’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Alabama scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Texas A&M on 4 of its 12.

Alabama’s drives are teal, Texas A&M’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Texas A&M’s side

Texas A&M’s best moment: Reed 4-yd TD run, Texas A&M goes ahead 14-10 (Q2 10:14). It lifted Texas A&M’s win chance by 10 points.

How Texas A&M fans took it: “Punting while down 2 scores with only 4 minutes left (after blowing 3 minutes doing nothing) should be the most important analytical takeaway. Something is…” r/CFB game thread

How fans reacted

Steady

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Alabama fans

grubb“"no one expected this" Bama fans absolutely did with Grubb as our OC. We have a very real chance of losing to Vandy.”

bye“Alabama survived and gets to the bye week which was what we needed and we can exhale a bit.”

starters“How many starters do we have out? This isn’t the Saban era when we have five stars 3 deep”

weeks“I'm honestly in shock whenever this offense gets a first down last few weeks.”

Texas A&M fans

reed“Marcel Reed (A&M)- 14, Marcel Reed (Bama)- 7, the rest of the Bama team- 3”

pass“Have you watched us this year? We haven’t completed a forward pass since 2025!”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, now, ball, don.

What it cost

Alabama’s chance to make the playoff rose from 59% to 70%.

Make the playoff

Texas A&M · lost18% → ▼11%

Alabama · won59% → ▲70%

Win the conference

Texas A&M · lost1% → ▼0%

Alabama · won13% → ▲17%

Win the title

Texas A&M · lost2% → ▼1%

Alabama · won8% → ▲9%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Texas A&M plays at South Carolina on Sat Nov 7 with an 11% chance to make the playoff. Alabama plays at LSU on Sat Nov 7 with a 70% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Alabama 31, Texas A&M 20

Texas A&M covered +13.5 by 2.5. The total, 51, went over 49.5.

Team totals	Texas A&M	Alabama
Total yards	278	379
Passing	14 of 21, 163 yds	19 of 30, 311 yds
Rushing	40 for 115 yds	28 for 68 yds
First downs	18	20
Third down	4 of 11	5 of 12
Fourth down	0 of 1	0 of 0
Turnovers	3	1
Penalties	8 for 74 yds	7 for 65 yds
Time of possession	33:10	26:50

Texas A&M leaders

Passing Marcel Reed 14 of 21, 163 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing KJ Edwards 8 for 43 yds; Marcel Reed 17 for 23 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Mario Craver 6 for 45 yds, 1 TD; Isaiah Horton 3 for 34 yds

Alabama leaders

Passing Keelon Russell 19 of 30, 311 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Daniel Hill 9 for 36 yds; Keelon Russell 9 for 20 yds
Receiving Rico Scott 6 for 156 yds; Lotzeir Brooks 3 for 73 yds

No rain and calm

76° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the northeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 20

October game-day temperatures at Bryant-Denny Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 14:55 left5:21 p.m.

Texas A&M 20, Alabama 24 · Alabama 87% to win

no rain · wind 8 mph from the northeast · 72°

Russell 5-yd TD pass to Pritchett, Alabama goes ahead 24-20

Measured at Tuscaloosa Muni airport, 3.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Texas A&M · 4-3

Rated 6th in our preseason ratings, 25th now, down 19 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 41-0 vs The Citadel No. 228 of 668 teams

won by 41 as a 46.5-point favorite

L 6-27 @ MissouriTop 25 No. 22 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 34-7 vs Arkansas No. 120 of 668 teams

won by 27 as a 13.5-point favorite

L 6-35 @ LSUTop 25 No. 14 of 668 teams

lost by 29 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 21-31 vs KentuckyTop 25 No. 86 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 16.5-point favorite

W 48-20 vs Arizona State No. 46 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 15.5-point favorite

W 50-0 vs Missouri State No. 90 of 668 teams

won by 50 as a 38.5-point favorite

Last three games

Alabama · 5-2

Rated 21st in our preseason ratings, 7th now, up 14 spots.

1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 10-26 @ TennesseeTop 25 No. 18 of 668 teams

lost by 16 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 17-20 vs GeorgiaTop 25 No. 1 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 56-23 @ Mississippi StateTop 25 No. 66 of 668 teams

won by 33 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 49-18 vs South Carolina No. 31 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 12.5-point favorite

W 50-36 vs Florida State No. 90 of 668 teams

won by 14 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 45-17 @ KentuckyTop 25 No. 95 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 48-10 vs East Carolina No. 76 of 668 teams

won by 38 as a 28.5-point favorite

Week by week

Alabama

Wk 3Wvs Florida State50-36
Wk 4Wvs South Carolina49-18
Wk 5Wat Mississippi State56-23
Wk 6Lvs Georgia17-20
Wk 7Lat Tennessee10-26

Texas A&M

Wk 3Lvs Kentucky21-31
Wk 4Lat LSU6-35
Wk 5Wvs Arkansas34-7
Wk 6Lat Missouri6-27
Wk 7Wvs The Citadel41-0

Power rating by week

Alabama is rated 4.5 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Texas A&M’s EPA/play against Alabama, 61 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Texas A&M’s EPA/play against Alabama’s defense
Texas A&M offense, 26th percentile · Alabama defense, 87th
Texas A&M’s passing EPA against Alabama’s defense
Texas A&M offense, 16th percentile · Alabama defense, 53rd
Alabama’s explosive plays against Texas A&M’s defense
Alabama offense, 74th percentile · Texas A&M defense, 56th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Texas A&MAlabama

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Alabama leads the series 13-3

16 meetings since 1941 · Alabama has won the last 2

2023Alabama 26-20
2022Alabama 24-20
2021Texas A&M 41-38The 2021 game and what was said
2020Alabama 52-24
2019Alabama 47-28

Each line is Alabama’s chance to win through that meeting. Alabama is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Alabama fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (18th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Alabama favored by 13.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Alabama by 13.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 11 points toward Alabama.

The total fell 5 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Alabama is worth +6.0 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 82nd percentile.

92% at home, 78% on the road against FBS opponents (48-4 home, 32-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.6 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 546 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Texas A&M beats Alabama on a field goal as time expiresGame · Oct 9, 2021

Our History pages cover 4 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Alabama6th3-2
Texas A&M15th1-3

Full SEC standings

No. 13 Alabama beats Texas A&M 31-20