Playoff odds59% → 64%CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: at LSULSU
Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET · LSUNo. 15 LSU is 6-2 · First meeting between DeBoer and Lane Kiffin as head coaches · Alabama’s chance to win: 43% (the site’s model)
Alabama has wins against 2 ranked teams but they have 2 losses. bYU has wins against 2 ranked teams and 1 loss and they are 5 spots back... Yikes
Former Alabama kicker Cade Foster officially wins reelection as County Attorney for McCracken County, KY (he was running unopposed) submitted by /u/DoctorWhosOnFirst [link] [comments]
Alabama’s record at lsu is 30 wins 10 losses 3 ties. I like our chances at that crap hole. RTR
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 20th of 138 per play. Defense: 15th.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Alabama. The other two rows are where Alabama stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Sat Nov 7at LSULSU (6-2)43%
Sat Nov 14at VANVanderbilt (3-5)93%
Sat Nov 21vs. UTCChattanooga (6-3)SECN+99%
Sat Nov 28vs. AUBAuburn (4-4)89%
Percent: Alabama’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Alabama has held at 1st of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▲ Higher
His 3rd season at Alabama
▼ Lower
Paid $10.2 million in 2025, the 95th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 2% on the season before
▼ Lower
A Power Four program · 99th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 24W 31-20 vs. Texas A&MIf my boss walked in and I had one of the many looks on my face DeBoer exhibits on the sideline, he'd assume I have no idea what I'm doing and fire me on the spot.ALAAlabama fan
Oct 17L 10-26 at TennesseeShame Deboer hasnt fired Grubb yet.ALAAlabama fan
Oct 10L 17-20 vs. GeorgiaSeeing Deboer fired up for the first time in his tenure gives me a full chubALAAlabama fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 3W 56-23 at Mississippi StateI remember when a bunch of other fans thought all of alabama wanted deboer fired.ALAAlabama fan
Sep 26W 49-18 vs. South CarolinaDeBoer is out here 100% trying to get Beamer firedALAAlabama fan
Sep 19W 50-36 vs. Florida StateFriendly reminder we extended Kalen "9-3" DeBoer for an unprompted seven years extension so no one could "steal" him.ALAAlabama fan
Sep 12W 45-17 at KentuckyDoes DeBoer get fired if we don’t achieve total victory in IranALAAlabama fan
Sep 5W 48-10 vs. East CarolinaBURN IT ALL DOWN! FIRE DEBOER! WE WOULDA BEEN BETTER OFF WITH LANE!!! /sALAAlabama fan
Dozens of stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: LSU
16th of 104 FBS head coaches · from many outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Most about: game preview, linked to another job, quarterback and depth chart.
PMS 2.0 1055 - Super Wildcard Weekend Preview, Kalen DeBoer Negotiating Deal To Become Next Alabama Head Coach, Michael Lombardi, America's Weatherman Jim Cantore, Jordan Poyer, & AJ HawkJan 12
PMS 2.0 994 - NFL Week 6 Preview/Picks, Washington Head Coach Kalen DeBoer, Lane Johnson, Arthur Smith, Kirk Herbstreit, Michael Lombardi, Bryce Harper, & AJ Hawk LIVE In The ThunderDomeOct 13
PMS 2.0 1009 - NFL Week 9 Preview/Picks, Washington Head Coach Kalen DeBoer, Rece Davis, Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith, Shane Gillis, & AJ Hawk LIVE In The ThunderDomeNov 3
PMS 2.0 1051 - overreaction monday live From NRG Stadium In Houston, Week 18 Recap, CFP National Championship Preview, Stephen A. Smith, CJ Stroud, Jim Harbaugh, Kalen DeBoer, Adam Schefter, Kirk Herbstreit, Rece Davis, Darius Butler, & AJ HawkJan 8
Hey Bama I hear that Kalen DeBoer is a great coach. National Title Game after 2 seasons. So good Dan Lanning can’t beat him in 3 tries! That is your man, trust me!!!Jan 10
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2022). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’21
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WSD
San Diego State · 2021
30-20
RivalQuality opponent
WUC
UCLA · 2021
40-37
UpsetQuality opponent
WSJ
San José State · 2021
40-9
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LBS
Boise State · 2021
14-40
RivalUpset
LUN
New Mexico · 2020
39-49
Upset
LHA
Hawai'i · 2021
24-27
Upset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
5-0 against his rivals at Washington. Nobody he faced three or more times there has a winning record against him.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’22’23
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WOR
Oregon · 2023
34-31
RivalUpsetQuality opponentConference title game
WOR
Oregon · 2022
37-34
RivalUpsetQuality opponent
WOR
Oregon · 2023
36-33
RivalQuality opponent
Signature losses
LMI
Michigan · 2023
13-34
National title game
LAS
Arizona State · 2022
38-45
Upset
LUC
UCLA · 2022
32-40
Upset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
5-2 against his rivals at Alabama. Just 1-2 against Brent Venables.
’24 L · blew a 3-pt lead’25 L · blew a 1-pt lead’25 W · erased a 17-pt deficit
covered the spread
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
4-3 57.1%ATS 4-3 7 of 7
Power Program
13-6 68.4%ATS 8-11 19 of 19
National Program
2-0 100.0%ATS —
Regional Program
5-1 83.3%ATS 4-2 6 of 6
Signature games
8-5 vs. AP top 25 · 2-2 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WLS
LSU · 2024
42-13
RivalQuality opponent
WLS
LSU · 2025
20-9
RivalQuality opponent
WTE
Tennessee · 2025
37-20
RivalQuality opponent
Signature losses
LIN
Indiana · 2025
3-38
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUG
Georgia · 2025
7-28
Conference title game
LMI
Michigan · 2024
13-19
UpsetBowl/CFP stakes
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
11-3 against his rivals. Just 1-2 against Brent Venables.
’24 L · blew a 3-pt lead’25 L · blew a 1-pt lead’25 W · erased a 17-pt deficit
covered the spread
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
4-4 50.0%ATS 4-4 8 of 8
Power Program
22-8 73.3%ATS 16-13-1 30 of 30
National Program
15-2 88.2%ATS 9-8 17 of 17
Regional Program
18-5 78.3%ATS 13-10 23 of 23
Signature games
18-6 vs. AP top 25 · 6-2 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’21’22’23’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WLS
LSU · 2024
42-13
RivalQuality opponent
WOR
Oregon · 2023
34-31
RivalUpsetQuality opponentConference title game
WLS
LSU · 2025
20-9
RivalQuality opponent
Signature losses
LIN
Indiana · 2025
3-38
Bowl/CFP stakes
LMI
Michigan · 2023
13-34
National title game
LUG
Georgia · 2025
7-28
Conference title game
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Defining games during this era
From our list of the 50 most defining games of the Playoff era, ranked by how much each game mattered, not by date.
Passed more than the situation called for under Grubb.
1,816 run and pass snaps at Alabama, 2024–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Alabama10.8pt#207 of 449 · a typical amount
Building the roster
Six numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 2 ranked Alabama classes of his own have averaged #2 nationally — best #2, worst #3.
FRFresno State
2020
#121
Transition
2021
#74
His class
UWWashington
2022
#95
His class
2023
#26
His class
ALAlabama
2024
#2
Transition
2025
#3
His class
2026
#2
His class
Across every program: 5 ranked classes of his own, averaging #40 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least4players
UWWashington→ALAlabama2024
At least 4 players followed him from Washington to Alabama.
Austin Mack QB
Germie Bernard WR
Josh Cuevas TE
Parker Brailsford OL
FRFresno State→UWWashington2022
No confirmed followers on this move.
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
87%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 111 of 127 players. The other 16 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 111Inherited 16
Of his own players on this roster, 16% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
New players each season, 2024–2026
24% of his 159 new players since 2024 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 29%). His share was 23% in 2024 and 25% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out worse than most FBS programs’ in all 3 seasons graded. our read
202412 of 53Portal grade: worse than most — #106 of 134 FBS programs that season
202511 of 45Portal grade: worse than most — #122 of 136 FBS programs that season
202615 of 61Portal grade: worse than most — #111 of 136 FBS programs that season
Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+5 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Alabama rosters have averaged 5 lb heavier than the FBS average (2024–2026) — heavier than 79% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, Alabama’s line averaged 6 lb heavier than the FBS average.
Alabama2024–2026+5 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
ALTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 22 of 78 signees (28%) across his 2024–2026 tenure, drawn from 19 states in all. Next: GA (13).
Where his signees came from, 2024–2026 (78 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
60% of his signees come from AL and its 4 border states (GA 13, MS 6, FL 5, TN 1).
By region
South
53
West
15
Midwest
5
Northeast
3
Roster distance from campus (Bryant-Denny Stadium, AL)
median hometown distance
207 mi
within 100 mi
24%
within 500 mi
69%
beyond 1,000 mi
12%
123 of 127 roster players with a known hometown (97% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
17Drafted
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. Most were someone else’s recruits: 12 arrived under Nick Saban; 5 he brought in himself. 4 went in the first round.
His recruits 5Inherited 1217 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R1.12
Kadyn Proctor
Offensive Tackle
Miami Dolphins
recruited under Nick Saban
2026
R1.13
Ty Simpson
Quarterback
Los Angeles Rams
recruited under Nick Saban
2026
R2.15
Germie Bernard
Wide Receiver
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026
R4.37
LT Overton
Defensive Edge
Dallas Cowboys
2026
R5.06
Parker Brailsford
Center
Cleveland Browns
2026
R5.09
Justin Jefferson
Linebacker
Cleveland Browns
recruited under Nick Saban
2026
R5.33
Josh Cuevas
Tight End
Baltimore Ravens
2026
R6.20
Domani Jackson
Cornerback
Green Bay Packers
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R7.16
Tim Keenan III
Defensive Tackle
Los Angeles Rams
recruited under Nick Saban
2026
R7.29
Jam Miller
Running Back
New England Patriots
recruited under Nick Saban
2025
R1.12
Tyler Booker
Offensive Guard
Dallas Cowboys
recruited under Nick Saban
2025
R1.31
Jihaad Campbell
Linebacker
Philadelphia Eagles
recruited under Nick Saban
2025
R3.28
Jalen Milroe
Quarterback
Seattle Seahawks
recruited under Nick Saban
2025
R4.28
Malachi Moore
Safety
New York Jets
recruited under Nick Saban
2025
R4.32
Que Robinson
Defensive Edge
Denver Broncos
recruited under Nick Saban
2025
R5.39
Robbie Ouzts
Tight End
Seattle Seahawks
recruited under Nick Saban
2025
R6.14
Tim Smith
Defensive Tackle
Indianapolis Colts
recruited under Nick Saban
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Trae’shawn’s benefited from a lot of the reps he got in the spring, summer [and]fall, and so he feels very comfortable out there now. You can see that he’s running hard, you know, just has a really good feel of what’s going to happen up front
I think that’s the difference right now: guys executing, playing confident, [and] trusting each other … to cut loose the ability that they have physically
I’d like to think that he’s gonna be a piece of the puzzle when it comes to our running back position that’s going to be instrumental to us being as successful as we want to be
It may not feel like it when you’re in this moment right now and what happened today, but I can tell you it’s a fine [line] between being here and being at the top
Between being healthy in the offseason and also understanding his body better, being a year older, he’s put on some weight. I think that’s helped in a lot of different ways
They’re guys that are in different years as far as Austin going into his fourth in this system, Keelon going into his second, so a little bit of a difference there
I think skillset-wise you’re talking about a much taller, bigger quarterback with Austin. He will surprise people when he really gets out and runs because he runs very well; better I think than most people think
You know what he’s done, he knows what it’s supposed to look like, knows what it feels like. He’s been there, he’s worked extremely hard. People, I think, think, ‘oh it’s a wake-up call for your football team’ or whatever it might be
My family and I would like to thank the Board of Trustees, Chancellor Trant, President Mohler, Director of Athletics Greg Byrne, our athletics administration and football staff, this community and the University for their continued support of Alabama Football
Adrian Klemm has a reputation for recruiting and developing players at every level, having worked with some of the top offensive lines in his 15-plus years coaching
That’s what we’ll do. I’ll let Coach (Ryan) Grubb and the offensive staff do their thing. That was fun getting KP a touch last week, and it was at an important time, too.
Hired into programs rated 78 to 84 (Blue Blood tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 1 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 4 lower. Median stay: 4 seasons.
Every coach hired into a Blue Blood job since 1990 (35): typically -2.6 after year 1, -5.0 after year 2.
Kalen DeBoer inherited Alabama at Blue Blood and kept it there.
−10.6 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 11% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
6th-best Alabama tenure of 12 by the numbers.
Followed Nick Saban (2007–2023).
System Shift, on arrival
Season
2024
2025
2026
Trend
Record & result
Record
9-4
11-4
6-2
Postseason
L bowl
CFP loss
—
Coordinators
OC
JaMarcus Shephard / Nick Sheridan
JaMarcus Shephard / Nick Sheridan / Ryan Grubb
Ryan Grubb
DC
Colin Hitschler / Kane Wommack / Maurice Linguist
Kane Wommack / Maurice Linguist
Kane Wommack / Maurice Linguist
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
60
67
82
Defense
99
84
84
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
40.7
47.8
43.9
Red-zone pass%
29.1
44.1
42.9
4th-down go%opp. territory
36.4
47.8
32.0
Recruiter or developer?
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
-12.4 pts
#158 of 208 · bottom quarter
Defense vs. talent
+18.0 pts
#37 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 259 lbs
across 39 of 43 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+11.2 lbs
#6 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
So
#246 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.4★
rated arrivals only
Top states: AL (5), CA (4), TX (4), MD (3), OH (3)
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Isaiah Horton On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
62.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
68.5
position-weighted
Net
-6.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Austin Mack (QB) from Washington
Biggest loss: Julian Sayin (QB) to Ohio State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: JaMarcus Shephard (co) / Nick Sheridan (co) → JaMarcus Shephard (co) / Nick Sheridan (co) / Ryan Grubb · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 40.7% → 47.8% (+7.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 43% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: JaMarcus Shephard (co) / Nick Sheridan (co) / Ryan Grubb → Ryan Grubb · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.8% → 43.9% (-3.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 26% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Colin Hitschler (co) / Kane Wommack / Maurice Linguist (co) → Kane Wommack / Maurice Linguist (co) · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
75%
#162 of 208 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
80%
#170 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2024: Lost to Michigan 13-19 ReliaQuest Bowl2025: Beat Oklahoma 34-24 College Football Playoff First Round Game2025: Lost to Indiana 3-38 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential
Kalen DeBoer moved Washington from Power Program II to Power Program I in 2 seasons.
Followed Jimmy Lake (2020–2021) · succeeded by Jedd Fisch (2024–now).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
Season
2022
2023
Trend
Record & result
Record
11-2
14-1
Postseason
W bowl
Title game L
Coordinators
OC
Ryan Grubb
Ryan Grubb
DC
Chuck Morrell / William Inge
Chuck Morrell / William Inge
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
96
93
Defense
23
15
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
64.2
60.0
Red-zone pass%
51.5
42.5
4th-down go%opp. territory
39.0
34.3
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+33.9 pts
#10 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
-40.5 pts
#204 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
19
3.3★ avg rating
Portal departures
42
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-23
#131 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 213 lbs
across 18 of 19 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-0.8 lbs
#240 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: CA (5), TX (3), FL (2), WA (1), HI (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
51.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.7
position-weighted
Net
-5.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Michael Penix Jr. (QB) from Indiana
Biggest loss: Sam Huard (QB) to Cal Poly
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Running back via the portal
80%
#12 of 208 stints
Grows Quarterback from high school
75%
#164 of 206 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
80%
#171 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2022: Beat Texas 27-20 Valero Alamo Bowl2023: Beat Texas 37-31 CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl2023: Lost to Michigan 13-34 CFP National Championship Pres. by AT&T
10 NFL Draft picks: Michael Penix Jr. (2024), Rome Odunze (2024), Troy Fautanu (2024), Ja'Lynn Polk (2024), Roger Rosengarten (2024), Bralen Trice (2024), Jalen McMillan (2024), Edefuan Ulofoshio (2024) + 2 more
Kalen DeBoer held Fresno State at National Program III for 2 seasons.
Followed Jeff Tedford (2017–2019) · succeeded by Jeff Tedford (2022–2023).
System Shift, on departure
Season
2020
2021
Trend
Record & result
Record
3-3
9-3
Postseason
—
—
Coordinators
OC
Ryan Grubb
Ryan Grubb
DC
William Inge
William Inge
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
58
62
Defense
47
88
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
53.1
58.6
Red-zone pass%
50.8
56.6
4th-down go%opp. territory
47.6
22.5
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+14.4 pts
#52 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+21.4 pts
#29 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
8
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
13
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-5
#145 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 236 lbs
across 6 of 8 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+8.1 lbs
#37 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Jr
#20 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: CA (5), WA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
25.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
37.0
position-weighted
Net
-11.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Elijah Gates (CB) from UCLA
Biggest loss: Chris Gaston (CB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
The data leans negative, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
Raised the program
AL-10.6 pts at Alabama · #1226 of 1290 · bottom quarter
Beat his talent
Offense vs. talent
+12.0 pts
#59 of 208 · middle half · 6 covered seasons
Defense vs. talent
-0.4 pts
#107 of 208 · middle half · 6 covered seasons
His own effect, isolated?
Offense marginal impact
+0.28
not distinguishable from zero
Defense marginal impact
+0.10
not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coordinator years
Offensive coordinator across 3 programs, 3 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.