5-3, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.
Now
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 4-2
2022Holiday BowlW 28-27
2023Fiesta BowlW 45-6
2024 QFRose BowlL 21-41
2025 QFOrange BowlW 23-0
2025 semiPeach BowlL 22-56This week Wed Nov 4
- Last gameW 34-26 vs. Northwestern Sat Oct 31
- This season5-3
- On track for8-4 regular season
- Nextat Ohio State Sat Nov 7
- Stature6th of 138 FBS programs
What the result changed
- Playoff odds 11% → 17% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: at Ohio State
Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET · No. 11 Ohio State is 6-2 · Lanning vs. Ryan Day: 1-1 · Oregon’s chance to win: 28% (the site’s model)
His week
Dozens of stories this week →
The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets
Yahoo SportsOregon HC Dan Lanning Notes Concerns About Ohio State's Jeremiah SmithTue Nov 34 more on Jeremiah Smith: Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, OregonLive, The Register-Guard
Yahoo SportsOregon, Dan Lanning Receive Promising Update on Top 2028 TargetTue Nov 3
Sports IllustratedWhy Ohio State’s Defensive Front Has Dan Lanning’s AttentionTue Nov 3
On3Dan Lanning Shares Updates on Status of Jordon Davison, Dakorien Moore Following Win Over NorthwesternSun Nov 1- Buckeyes WireWhat Oregon coach Dan Lanning said about Ohio State before the gameTue Nov 3
A to Z SportsOregon HC Dan Lanning has already made it very clear on how he feels about Ohio State ahead of the Week 10 gameMon Nov 2- Central Oregon DailyOregon's PATH to the Big 10 Football Championship is real after Dan Lanning's Ducksbeat NorthwesternMon Nov 2
- Ducks WireEverything Dan Lanning said before Oregon's trip to Ohio StateMon Nov 2
On the podcasts
Offense: 94th of 138 per play. Defense: 6th.
4 games left
- Sat Nov 7at Ohio State (6-2)
28%
- Sat Nov 14vs. Michigan (5-3)69%
- Fri Nov 20at Michigan State (2-6)
91%
- Sat Nov 28vs. Washington (5-3)70%
Percent: Oregon’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Oregon has held at 6th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.
- Oct 26–Nov 1W 34-26 vs. Northwestern50 headlines · 7th of 138Oregon coach Dan Lanning provides encouraging Dakorien Moore update after taking big shot vs. Northwestern
Yahoo Sports - Oct 19–25L 10-21 at Illinois43 headlines · 7th of 138Dan Lanning Puts Oregon Coaching Staff on Notice With Strong Statement After Another Offensive Struggle
Yahoo Sports“Biggest Frauds”Oregon Gets Encouraged To Fire Dan Lanning After Scathing Criticism, Oct 24 - Oct 12–18W 17-14 vs. Nebraska28 headlines · 13th of 138Dan Lanning Makes Big Dylan Raiola Decision for Nebraska Game After Urban Meyer and Others Give Up on Oregon
Yahoo Sports - Oct 5–11L 15-17 vs. UCLA29 headlines · 12th of 138Did Dan Lanning keep Dylan Raiola in too long? 'Probably a fair question'
USA Today - Sep 28–Oct 4No game52 headlines · 4th of 138Dante Moore or Dylan Raiola? Oregon's Dan Lanning has uncomfortable quarterback decision
USA Today“Pretty amazing”Dan Lanning says Bob Chesney offered to check on Dante Moore in hospital, Sep 30 - Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 41-27 at USC32 headlines · 13th of 138For Oregon’s Dan Lanning, other coaches, hiring the right coordinators is their biggest call
The New York Times
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Oregon’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
Report card
Offense carries it: 97th percentile offense, top-quarter defense at 81st.
Oregon, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.
Offense
Defense
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Poach watch
This winter
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
- ▲ HigherAge 40 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
- ▲ Higher26-3 over his previous two seasons here
- ▼ LowerPaid $10.4 million in 2025, the 95th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 27% on the season before
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
- The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
- Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
- It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
- A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
- Oct 31W 34-26 vs. Northwestern
This is Dan Lanning we're talking about, so maybe 4th quarter at soonest
Oregon fan - Oct 24L 10-21 at Illinois
Dan Lanning needs to fire Drew Mehringer regardless of how this game ends
Oregon fan - Oct 17W 17-14 vs. Nebraska
It’s crazy how Dan Lanning has been so on fire just to drop a season that’s looked worse than anything Helf or Taggart trotted out.
Oregon fan
Earlier weeks
- Oct 10L 15-17 vs. UCLA
FIRE DAN LANNING……into the OC’s office so he can fire him
Oregon fan - Sep 26W 41-27 at USC
Looks like the Lanning speech fired up the offence. Hopefully did the same for the defence.
Oregon fan - Sep 18W 84-0 vs. Portland State
Dan Lanning is mad I guess
Oregon fan - Sep 12L 31-39 at Oklahoma State
Fire Dan lanning
Oregon fan - Sep 5W 34-27 vs. Boise State
Fire Dan Lanning
Oregon fan

Dozens of stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: Ohio State
9th of 104 FBS head coaches · from many outlets and r/CFB
A to Z Sports +1 Nov 2 · a few outlets
Job talk is up: many stories in the last two weeks, from one story the two weeks before.
What they’re talking about
The headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
Dozens of stories about him this season
from dozens of outlets and r/CFB
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore not expected to return this season, coach Dan Lanning says
Bozeman Daily Chronicle +2 Oct 26 · a few outlets
All 3 articles
What they’re talking about
The headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
Could another school hire him? What has he said?
Across his career
520 stories about him across 5 seasons
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
5-4 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Kalen DeBoer.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games






Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
Defining games during this era
From our list of the 50 most defining games of the Playoff era, ranked by how much each game mattered, not by date.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Passed more than the situation called for under Stein.
3,778 run and pass snaps at Oregon, 2022–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His 4 ranked Oregon classes of his own have averaged #5 nationally — best #3, worst #9.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 132 of 132 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 16% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
20% of his 260 new players since 2022 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 23%). His share was 14% in 2022 and 20% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 1 and worse than most in 1 of the 5 seasons graded. our read
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
Offensive linemen on his Oregon rosters have averaged 8 lb heavier than the FBS average (2022–2026) — heavier than 91% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, Oregon’s line averaged 12 lb heavier than the FBS average.
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 40 of 133 signees (30%) across his 2022–2026 tenure, drawn from 25 states in all. Next: OR (19).
54% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states (OR 19, AZ 8, NV 5).
- median hometown distance
- 846 mi
- within 100 mi
- 13%
- within 500 mi
- 32%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 46%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 21 of them himself; 10 arrived under Mario Cristobal (9), Willie Taggart (1). 6 went in the first round.
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1.16 | Kenyon Sadiq | Tight End | New York Jets | |
| 2026 | R1.25 | Dillon Thieneman | Safety | Chicago Bears | |
| 2026 | R3.24 | Emmanuel Pregnon | Offensive Guard | Jacksonville Jaguars | |
| 2026 | R4.09 | Jadon Canady | Safety | Kansas City Chiefs | |
| 2026 | R4.35 | Bryce Boettcher | Linebacker | Indianapolis Colts | |
| 2026 | R6.14 | Malik Benson | Wide Receiver | Las Vegas Raiders | |
| 2026 | R6.25 | Alex Harkey | Offensive Guard | Los Angeles Chargers | |
| 2025 | R1.21 | Derrick Harmon | Defensive Tackle | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R1.29 | Josh Conerly Jr. | Offensive Tackle | Washington Commanders | |
| 2025 | R2.14 | Terrance Ferguson | Tight End | Los Angeles Rams | recruited under Mario Cristobal |
| 2025 | R3.14 | Jordan Burch | Defensive Edge | Arizona Cardinals | |
| 2025 | R3.22 | Jamaree Caldwell | Defensive Tackle | Los Angeles Chargers | |
| 2025 | R3.30 | Dillon Gabriel | Quarterback | Cleveland Browns | |
| 2025 | R5.09 | Jordan James | Running Back | San Francisco 49ers | |
| 2025 | R5.20 | Jeffrey Bassa | Linebacker | Kansas City Chiefs | recruited under Mario Cristobal |
| 2025 | R6.28 | Ajani Cornelius | Offensive Tackle | Dallas Cowboys | |
| 2025 | R7.19 | Tez Johnson | Wide Receiver | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |
| 2024 | R1.12 | Bo Nix | Quarterback | Denver Broncos | |
| 2024 | R2.12 | Jackson Powers-Johnson | Center | Las Vegas Raiders | recruited under Mario Cristobal |
| 2024 | R4.02 | Troy Franklin | Wide Receiver | Denver Broncos | recruited under Mario Cristobal |
| 2024 | R4.08 | Khyree Jackson | Cornerback | Minnesota Vikings | |
| 2024 | R4.09 | Brandon Dorlus | Defensive Tackle | Atlanta Falcons | recruited under Mario Cristobal |
| 2024 | R4.11 | Evan Williams | Safety | Green Bay Packers | |
| 2024 | R4.25 | Bucky Irving | Running Back | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |
| 2024 | R6.12 | Jamal Hill | Linebacker | Houston Texans | recruited under Mario Cristobal |
| 2023 | R1.17 | Christian Gonzalez | Cornerback | New England Patriots | |
| 2023 | R3.17 | DJ Johnson | Outside Linebacker | Carolina Panthers | recruited under Mario Cristobal |
| 2023 | R5.14 | Noah Sewell | Inside Linebacker | Chicago Bears | recruited under Mario Cristobal |
| 2023 | R6.22 | Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu | Offensive Tackle | Baltimore Ravens | recruited under Willie Taggart |
| 2023 | R7.26 | Jordon Riley | Defensive Tackle | New York Giants | |
| 2023 | R7.40 | Alex Forsyth | Center | Denver Broncos | recruited under Mario Cristobal |
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
What others say about him
Every quote, back to July 2026
What others say
I came into this week knowing I had to compete, and ultimately, Coach Lanning made a decision, and I wasn’t gonna pout. I wasn’t going to, you know, be miserable to be around
I was going to be here no matter who was coaching me, but when Dan Lanning came, and I know he’s a mastermind
In his own words
You have to know where he's at at all times; he's dynamic in every phase. I think our players are excited to take on that challenge. But defending a guy like him is a real challenge
He's certainly pro-ready. I think anybody that's played against him already would tell you that he probably was two years ago, right? So he certainly is now
Their quarterback is hard to defend. When you designate a guy to spy him and take him away, you lose a little bit of the edge pressure you can generate. You can’t really do both. We had to have multiple game plans for both
It didn’t start off the way we wanted to in the second half, but our defense went out there and put out the fire
I thought our defense did a good job of not folding down in the red area and making sure we were able to keep them out of touchdown situations and force field goals
Dakorien has grown into a guy who really wants to be coached, and it’s really fun and refreshing to go out there
Really just going to focus on the guys that were here on the trip today
There was an incident this weekend that didn’t match our standard here in our program
He’s still going to be a big part of this team and helping us move forward and find an opportunity for us to be better
I think if it was up to Dante in any way, he would want to be out there playing for the guys
Drew has been a valued member of this staff since 2022, and I am appreciative of everything he’s done for Oregon
Just to start things off first, obviously there’s an incident this weekend that didn’t match our standard here in our program
Why didn’t you switch him right then?
Now, can we call better plays? Absolutely
Everything’s being evaluated
I’m just impressed with a lot of the growth of the guys across the board and there’s more and more guys that are really accountable and frustrated if they don’t do their job at a high level
There will be appropriate action taken
Brock wasn’t necessarily making poor decisions; obviously, the first series wasn’t clean, right? (He) didn’t throw it really well the first series, we were trying to get some touches to Dakorien and some other guys like that, but that happens when you’re starting in a tough environment, but the number one goal was to protect the ball
I thought he did an incredible job
Nobody else cares, but I think this will be the year that I’ve grown the most in my position
I thought those guys never flinched, wherever, wherever it was, and they got put in some tough moments again, you know, in these back-to-back weeks where I thought the defense — they really showed up
It wasn’t good enough in the first half. You know, there’s certainly nobody in the nation working harder to try to find ways to do that
The bright spots are that, hey, we get an opportunity to improve, right?
I don’t know the answers to why
I felt like this was going to be the game, based on our prep, where all three phases really came together
And nothing but love and respect for him.
We were in the game, but we weren’t successful on offense in any phase tonight. Didn’t really get into a rhythm
I have to definitely evaluate the game first, go back and look at it
Everyone could say, ‘Well, the defense played better,’ but you look back at the very first play of the game, you give up an explosive play that turned into three points that drive, and three points is the difference in this game
It’s totally different systems than what he was running before, so I think you got to build confidence in the system, and that takes time, especially when you ask the quarterback to do as much as we ask the quarterback to do
I think the biggest thing is just being able to see a smile on his face to get around and be around his teammates and his brothers and do that at a high level
Every one of us put it on the line for 5
These guys went out and played for 5
Every guy had faith in him
We're about to play a UCLA team that reminds me a lot of Indiana from last year
Why I draw some comparisons to Indiana — a lot of guys traveled with (the coach) to their next stop
They got some players that can play ball
He texted me as (the Bruins) were traveling back to LA and said, 'Hey, if you need my help with Dante or anything, and he's still in LA, I'll go check on this guy. I'm giving the team off tomorrow; let me know.' It speaks to the kind of person he is
We saw that s--t was cheap
Everybody grab hands, bow your heads. Dear God, we need you right now to protect Dante. He put his life on his line for his team
What you ask yourself is, what's the best way to honor Dante
You see your brother get hurt and you want to react. I want to react
We are extremely appreciative of our entire medical staff and the medical staffs at USC and LA General County Hospital for their quick and thorough action in making sure Dante received the very best care possible
It’s hard to play in a tough environment
Three wins against these guys
There’s a reason targeting exists in football, and it’s as clear as day targeting
We didn’t have a lot of rhythm on offense today. Defensively, we gave up way too many explosives, poor eye discipline, not winning at the point of attack, and our guys are much more capable than that
They played a better game than us. They were better coached than us.
Our locker room is hurting a little bit, but they’re ready for an opportunity to grow.
When one guy jumps offsides in one game and then turns around and jumps offsides in the next game, his level of focus isn’t where it needs to be
We had penalties that showed up that could have hurt us in a real competitive situation
It wasn’t close in a lot of ways
I think there’s definitely concerns in general from a performance standpoint
I mean, look, that’s a play that everyone will look at, and the reality is that this ball game is in no way, shape or form on Dierre
We won the game with total yards, but we didn’t really win the critical situations.
In the first half we didn’t do as good of a job handling their quarterback movement
They understood what they had to attack, and they performed a little bit better as a unit
I didn’t see anything that was disturbing, but you can’t look like a deer in headlights when things don’t look right
Evan played a good game… I have the utmost trust for him because of how hard he has worked
I thought we lacked a little killer instinct at the end, and our standards can’t change
We had a lot of young talent last year and certainly a lot of talent
That’s a great thing to highlight
I hope we will be your favorite team in America
Career
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Inheritor inherited a power and neither built it higher nor let it collapse
3rd-best Oregon tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Mario Cristobal (2018–2021).
| Season | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||
| Record | 10-3 | 12-2 | 13-1 | 13-2 | 5-3 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | W bowl | CFP loss | CFP loss | — | |
| Coordinators | ||||||
| OC | Drew Mehringer / Kenny Dillingham / Junior Adams | Drew Mehringer / Will Stein / Junior Adams | Drew Mehringer / Will Stein / Junior Adams | Drew Mehringer / Will Stein | Drew Mehringer (relieved of duties Oct. 25) | |
| DC | Matt Powledge / Tosh Lupoi | Chris Hampton / Tosh Lupoi | Chris Hampton / Tosh Lupoi | Chris Hampton / Tosh Lupoi | Chris Hampton | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||
| Offense | 90 | 100 | 97 | 92 | 42 | |
| Defense | 42 | 92 | 56 | 82 | 88 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 47.7 | 52.9 | 45.3 | 40.3 | 49.5 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 43.8 | 52.3 | 38.9 | 32.9 | 38.0 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 51.5 | 41.4 | 36.4 | 40.0 | 44.4 | |
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
7 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Jackson Powers-Johnson (2023), Dillon Gabriel (2024), Josh Conerly Jr. (2024), Dillon Thieneman (2025), A'Mauri Washington (2025), Bryce Boettcher (2025), Iapani Laloulu (2025)
AI Narratives — “Oregon's Offseason Transitions” and 10 more on the team page.
Was he good?
The data leans positive, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
+6.2 pts at Oregon · #337 of 1290 · middle halfModel fit as of 2026-09-04.








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