This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianOregonWashingtonWashingtonOregon StateOregon StateBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelOregon when he took over: 59.6 (Power Program I), its final 2021 readingtook overOregon, 2022: 10-3, Power Program IOregon, 2022: 10-3, Power Program I202210-3Oregon, 2023: 12-2, Power Program I202312-2Oregon, 2024: 13-1, Power Program I202413-1Oregon, 2025: 13-2, Power Program I202513-2Oregon, 2026: 5-3, Power Program IOregon, 2026: 5-3, Power Program I20265-3+6.2best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 4-2

2022Holiday BowlW 28-272023Fiesta BowlW 45-62024 QFRose BowlL 21-412025CFP first roundW 51-342025 QFOrange BowlW 23-02025 semiPeach BowlL 22-56

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 34-26 vs. Northwestern Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextat Ohio State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature6th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 11% → 17% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Ohio State

Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET CBS · No. 11 Ohio State is 6-2 · Lanning vs. Ryan Day: 1-1 · Oregon’s chance to win: 28% (the site’s model)

His week

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 94th of 138 per play. Defense: 6th.

Offense, per play94thOffense, big plays117thDefense, per play6thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule1stWorstBest
Offense, per play94th of 138Offense, big plays117th of 138Defense, per play6th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule1st of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Oregon. The other two rows are where Oregon stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Ohio State (6-2)CBS28%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Michigan (5-3)69%
  3. Fri Nov 20at Michigan State (2-6)FOX91%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Washington (5-3)70%

Percent: Oregon’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Oregon has held at 6th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 34-26 vs. Northwestern50 headlines · 7th of 138Oregon coach Dan Lanning provides encouraging Dakorien Moore update after taking big shot vs. Northwestern Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 19–25L 10-21 at Illinois43 headlines · 7th of 138Dan Lanning Puts Oregon Coaching Staff on Notice With Strong Statement After Another Offensive Struggle Yahoo Sports“Biggest Frauds”Oregon Gets Encouraged To Fire Dan Lanning After Scathing Criticism, Oct 24
  3. Oct 12–18W 17-14 vs. Nebraska28 headlines · 13th of 138Dan Lanning Makes Big Dylan Raiola Decision for Nebraska Game After Urban Meyer and Others Give Up on Oregon Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11L 15-17 vs. UCLA29 headlines · 12th of 138Did Dan Lanning keep Dylan Raiola in too long? 'Probably a fair question' USA Today
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game52 headlines · 4th of 138Dante Moore or Dylan Raiola? Oregon's Dan Lanning has uncomfortable quarterback decision USA Today“Pretty amazing”Dan Lanning says Bob Chesney offered to check on Dante Moore in hospital, Sep 30
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 41-27 at USC32 headlines · 13th of 138For Oregon’s Dan Lanning, other coaches, hiring the right coordinators is their biggest call The New York Times

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Oregon’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 97th percentile offense, top-quarter defense at 81st.

Oregon, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A+
of which —97th
efficiency — 97th percentile success rate, 2022–25
A+97th
Standard-downs success
A84th
Passing-downs success
A89th
Trench push (line yards)
B69th
Red-zone scoring rate
B+78th
Power-success (short yardage)
A88th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

A
of which —81st
81st percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
B+70th
Front-7 havoc
A+93rd
Secondary havoc
C-34th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C+48th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

6%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled38th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 40 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    26-3 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $10.4 million in 2025, the 95th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 27% on the season before
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.