Next game: at Ohio State
Ohio State’s best edge on Oregon is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Oregon offense against Ohio State defense
Ohio State offense against Oregon defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.29 EPA/play | 8 | 6 | 96 / 145 | 66.2 | 1097 | 7.6 | 9 | 2 | 147.5 | 53 | 60.0 | 7.8 | 2.7 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 145 pass attempts and 9 carries in 6 games. Fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Raiola operates within the system without forcing anything. Underwood is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.0 58th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage5.8% bottom 6th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dylan Raiola's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.20 EPA/play | 5 | 4 | 69 / 99 | 69.7 | 926 | 9.4 | 9 | 0 | 178.3 | 59 | 66.9 | 10.3 | 5.7 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. This week's matchup — QB Moore operates within the system without forcing anything. Underwood is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.2 89th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate0.0% 97th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dante Moore's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.14 EPA/play | 12 | 3 | 23 / 40 | 57.5 | 228 | 5.7 | 1 | 1 | 108.6 | — | 15.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Back · +0.17 EPA/play | — | 8 | 91 | 439 | 4.8 | 7 #36 FBS | 45 | 18.7 | 13.2 | |
Yards by week → Power backShort-yardage and goal-line specialist. Carries the load, owns the red zone. Starter — 91 carries and 6 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Davison wears you down at the goal line. Marshall is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Rush TD rate7.7% 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception1.8 bottom 2th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like the ball security is the one real worry — 2.06 fumbles per 100 touches (top-decile concern) | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · -0.00 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 83 | 399 | 4.8 | 3 | 41 | 16.9 | 10.8 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — 83 carries and 20 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Jr. wins in space out of the backfield. Marshall is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Receiving share19.4% 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception10.5 85th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dierre Hill Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.30 EPA/play | 26 | 4 | 32 | 193 | 6.0 | 2 | 35 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.12 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 41 | 545 #58 FBS | 13.3 | 6 #23 FBS | 75 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 41 catches and 1 carry in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Moore wins underneath on volume and route precision. Buchanan is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume41 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dakorien Moore's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.32 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 31 | 423 | 13.6 | 4 #70 FBS | 44 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 31 catches, 1 pass attempt and 1 carry in 6 games. More catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Stewart moves the chains on third down. Buchanan is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception14.0 55th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate12.9% 72th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Evan Stewart's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.67 EPA/play | 9 | 6 | 26 | 328 | 12.6 | 3 | 37 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 26 catches in 6 games. More catches a game than nearly every FBS tight end who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jamari Johnson's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.99 EPA/play | 3 | 2 | 7 | 170 | 24.3 | 1 | 51 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.22 EPA/play | 15 | 5 | 18 | 161 | 8.9 | 2 | 21 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Messiah Hampton's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.32 EPA/play | 83 | 2 | 8 | 93 | 11.6 | 0 | 36 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.80 EPA/play | 10 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 12.9 | 0 | 35 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +1.20 EPA/play | 18 | 2 | 5 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 26 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 1 | 8 | 39 | 15 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Impact starter — 39 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight316 lb 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bear Alexander's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 52 | 8 | 23 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 23 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight325 lb 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View A'Mauri Washington's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | — | 5 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate30.0% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View D'Ante Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| 55 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 9 | 8 | 48 | 18 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 48 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.2% 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Devon Jackson's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 44 | 8 | 43 | 20 | 23 | 8 #50 FBS | 5.5 #29 FBS | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 43 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.6% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate12.8% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Teitum Tuioti's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 8 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 38 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Jerry Mixon's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 10 | 8 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 4.5 #60 FBS | 0 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.2% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate13.6% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Matayo Uiagalelei's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 8 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View Dylan Williams's full player page | |||||||||
| 13 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 3 | 8 | 53 | 1 | 2 #51 FBS | 0.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 53 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume53 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Koi Perich's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 6 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 28 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Brandon Finney Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 7 | 7 | 24 | 7 #20 FBS | 1 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate29.2% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ify Obidegwu's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 2 | 8 | 19 | 7 #20 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate36.8% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Na'Eem Offord's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 12 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 67th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Peyton Woodyard's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 4 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View Aaron Flowers's full player page | |||||||
| 22 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 97 | 8 | 12/15 | 80 | 24/24 | 60 | 44 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 39 | 8 | 32 | 1484 | 46.4 | 67 | 12 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · -0.00 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 6 | 155 | 25.8 | 0 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.32 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 | 15 |
| Slot Technician · +0.12 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
Biggest plays from Oregon’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Oregon’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:28 · Oregon down 5, takes the leadDylan Raiola finds Jamari Johnson for a 4-yard touchdownNebraska at Oregon, week 7Q4, 0:28 · Oregon 17, Nebraska 140:28Go-ahead touchdown for Oregon with 0:28 left0:28Go-ahead touchdown for Oregon with 0:28 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Oregon with 0:28 leftD.Raiola pass complete short middle to J.Johnson caught at NEB00, for 4 yards to the NEB00 touchdown H.Lewis pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 14:19 · Oregon down 3, takes the leadBrandon Smith runs 2 yards for a touchdownNorthwestern at Oregon, week 9Q4, 14:19 · Oregon 27, Northwestern 23▲22%Oregon’s chance to win, 52% to 74%▲22%Oregon’s chance to win, 52% to 74%B.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NWN00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q4, 10:20 · Oregon up 1Dylan Raiola finds Dakorien Moore for a 75-yard touchdownNorthwestern at Oregon, week 9Q4, 10:20 · Oregon 34, Northwestern 267575-yard touchdown pass7575-yard touchdown pass75-yard touchdown passD.Raiola pass complete short middle to D.Moore caught at ORE33, for 75 yards to the NWN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q2, 5:26 · Oregon down 10Jordon Davison runs 1 yard for a touchdownOregon at Oklahoma State, week 2Q2, 5:26 · Oregon 14, Oklahoma State 17▲22%Oregon’s chance to win, 60% to 82%▲22%Oregon’s chance to win, 60% to 82%J.Davison rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 9:12 · Oregon down 10Oregon scores a touchdownOregon at Oklahoma State, week 2Q3, 9:12 · Oregon 24, Oklahoma State 27▲21%Oregon’s chance to win, 54% to 75%▲21%Oregon’s chance to win, 54% to 75%D.Moore pass complete deep left to D.Moore caught at OSU00, for 36 yards to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 12:08 · Oregon tiedJ. Davison fumbles and Nebraska recoversNebraska at Oregon, week 7Q2, 12:08 · Oregon 0, Nebraska 0Oregon turned it over in the red zoneOregon turned it over in the red zoneJ.Davison rush left for 2 yards gain to the NEB12 fumbled by J.Davison at NEB13 forced by C.Benning recovered by NEB J.Whittington at NEB12, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Oregon lost at Illinois after being 83% to win; the closest win was against Northwestern, down to 9%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Oregon during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Oregon
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · OregonKoi Perich leads Oregon with 53 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+13 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Oregon fields a capable pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind an elite defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Oregon reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 12%) and EPA allowed (top 18%); the crux lives in rushing EPA, where Oregon sits at the 15th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Oregon is worth +3.5 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 36th percentile of 133 programs
92% at home, 71% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (44-4 home, 29-12 away). Interval ±3.7.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Oregon has beaten the number by +0.7 more at home than away over 96 games. That is inside the ±6.0 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Autzen Stadium seats 54,000 and has averaged 106% full (57,255, 33 games reported). Visitors face the 26th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 615 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads middle of fbs. 13% of the 2026 roster (17 of 129 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Garbage timeJay Harris sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline: the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
- Garbage timeJordon Davison does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps, the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
- Deep threatJamari Johnson is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatJeremiah McClellan is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. split the carries (89/170 vs 81/170) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Dierre Hill Jr. owns the receiving work; Jordon Davison produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Dakorien Moore (WR) and Jamari Johnson (TE) split the targets (60/96 vs 36/96) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jamari Johnson produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Oregon actually scores
28th percentile quality, 72nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Oregon’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 86th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 66th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Oregon hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
39th percentile success on standard downs, 26th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Oregon by half
1st-half offense ranks 13th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 59th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Oregon’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.13; 42nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.28 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Oregon’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.7% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 247-play sample) — mid-pack, 96 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Oregon’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (61.9% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 204-play sample) — stingiest, 3 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
23% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.
3 of 13 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
19% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
9 interceptions of 47 disrupted passes (38 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
44 penalties committed, 41 drawn on opponents — ceding 47 yards of field position.
386 penalty yards committed vs. 339 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Oregon
Most similar programs · OregonReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Oregon’s breakout has happened before — and 4 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Usual during the game around Nov 13: 46°, between 37° and 57° in about 7 in 10 games (28 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 57°, and 8 in 10 ran between 40° and 75° (48 of 49 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.