CFB Zeitgeist Score
68
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by tackles for loss at the 87th percentile.
Bear Alexander
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
50 TACKLES · 1 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Oregon for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive line · Oregon
Returning around him
- 19% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 7 Oregon players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -17 net (13 in / 30 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Oregon · Last season: 13-2 (AP #5) · Talent rank #5 · 2026 recruiting class #5
DL · OREGON · BIG TEN
Bear Alexander
- 3
- #1
- 6-3 | 302 lb
- Terrell, TX
Heisman Heat
#10886
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
4 seasons on the ladder
2022
Georgia · DL
—
2023
USC · DL
—
★
2024
USC · DL
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
2025
Oregon · DL
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.9782 | No. 50 recruit | HighSchool | Georgia |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USC -> Oregon | 4-star | 0.9200 | Immediate |
| 2023 | Georgia -> USC | 4-star | 0.9400 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
NIL Valuation · On3
$1.19M
#93 nationally · Jun 2026
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Georgia
Composite
0.9782
#50 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Bear Alexander
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Bear Alexander
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 14g
50Tackles
6.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
0.5Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Final
50Tackles
6.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Bear Alexander is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Oregon's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
50 88th
SOLO
19 76th
TFL
6.5 93rd
SACK
1.0 82nd
QBH
5 90th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
1 43rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 14 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 59-13vs Montana State | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 69-3vs Oklahoma State | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 34-14@ Northwestern | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 41-7vs Oregon State | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | W 30-24@ Penn State | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | L 20-30vs Indiana | 6 | 4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 6 tackles |
| Wk 8 | W 56-10@ Rutgers | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 21-7vs Wisconsin | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | W 18-16@ Iowa | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 42-13vs Minnesota | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 13 | W 42-27vs USC | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 14 | W 26-14@ Washington | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | W 51-34vs James Madison | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | W 23-0@ Texas Tech | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 50 | 19 | 6.5 | 1.0 | — | 1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Georgia15-0HC: Kirby Smart · Balanced
2023USC8-5HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning, slow tempo
2024USC7-6HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning
2025Oregon13-2HC: Dan Lanning · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 50 | #600/4942 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 6.5 | #340/4972 | 93rd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 1.0 | #872/4972 | 82nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 1 | #1241/2184 | 43rd pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 5 | #188/1878 | 90th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 19 | #1095/4584 | 76th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 2 | #13/736 | 98th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 14 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Road6g | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins13g | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Losses1g | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-78g | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort
68Solid starter
Elite: qb hurries (92nd). Strength: tackles for loss (87th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DL · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Bear AlexanderOregonTrey FieldsNorth Texas· 83% simRay ConeyTulsa· 81% simJaxton EckNew Mexico· 81% sim
QB hurries
Tackles for loss
Tackles
Sacks
Solo tackles
Passes defended
Forced fumbles
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Two-Gap Base
Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.
IDL
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jordan Miller’s 2023 season.
Jordan Miller
91%match
#2
Immanuel Hickman Sr.
90%
#3
Caleb Sampson
90%
#4
Phillip Paea
89%
#5
Josh Ellison
89%
Matches Jordan on
Sack rate
Height
Weight
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Sean FitzSimmons's senior season at Pittsburgh (2025).
Sean FitzSimmons
88%match
#2
Caden Haws
84%
#3
Jamall Hickbottom
82%
#4
Anthony Collier
80%
#5
Trevon McAlpine
79%
Matches Sean on
Class year
Height
TFL rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dan Lanning
Pass share
44.9%
436 pass / 534 run
Plays / game
64.7
15 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.8%
250 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2023
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2024
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2025
Dan Lanning
Oregon
Played his entire career under Dan Lanning.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownTerrell, TX
Height6'3"
Weight302 lb
Class3
PositionDL
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamOregon
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Big Ten
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
2 all-conference honors
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Oregon | Big Ten | DT |
| 2024 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Big Ten | OTHE |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.