Dante Moore was a projected top-five NFL pick. He said no, and came back to Oregon -- to finish something a 56-22 playoff beating left undone. The most interesting quarterback decision of the offseason now has a full season to be judged.
6′3″ · 206 lb · Detroit, MI · Martin Luther King Jr. Senior HS
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026
5 TD · 0 INT · 8.6 per attempt
2 games into 2026 so far
The play that turned itSwung Oregon from 23% to 55% to win.Boise State at Oregon · 34-27
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Dante Moore was a projected top-five NFL pick. He said no, and came back to Oregon -- to finish something a 56-22 playoff beating left undone. The most interesting quarterback decision of the offseason now has a full season to be judged.
Aura™ · Him Watch
-1aura tax
96th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=436
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
Also worth knowing:
“Week 1 is all about survival. Dante Moore looked pretty sharp.”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Dante Moore has never looked like a consensus #1 to me. Dudes got no dog in him. Never once seen him put the team on his back and grit out a tough win.
Based on 3 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Sep 6, 2026–Sep 12, 2026 · via CFB, ducks
I knew there was going to be Moore of Dante. Hes going to lead Oregon to Moore victories and a Natty
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jun 25, 2026 · via GoDucks
Dante Moore looked really comfortable out there, didn't try to force things and made smart throws. Can't wait to see how they open the playbook for him going forward.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 31, 2025 · via CFB
Most quarterbacks with Moore's draft stock are gone. He left it on the table. After a 13-2 season -- 71.8% completions, 3,565 yards, 30 touchdowns -- that ended in a 56-22 Playoff semifinal humbling by Indiana, the projected first-rounder turned down the draft and returned to Eugene. His reasons were unusually candid: only 20 career starts across stops at UCLA and Oregon, a sense he 'wasn't prepared yet,' and a title that got away.
It's a bet on himself in the most public way possible -- and it reshaped the sport's offseason. His return convinced the Ducks' five-star transfer, Dylan Raiola, that 2026 would be a redshirt year in the wings.
So the forward stakes cut two ways. For Oregon, Moore is a Playoff-tested starter with unfinished business and a roster built to contend. For Moore personally, it's a referendum: a season to prove the extra year was wisdom, not hesitation -- and to make sure the last image of his Oregon career isn't a 34-point semifinal loss.
His career
Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.
Moore is a clean, efficient pocket passer, and the metrics are emphatic about it: 97th percentile in efficiency, 98th in both explosive-pass rate and touchdown rate, with a sack rate in the top tenth -- he gets it out, he hits the big one, he finishes drives. What the resume lacks isn't production, it's volume: just 20 career starts across UCLA and Oregon, the real reason a projected top-five pick came back. The blemish the tape keeps is the stage -- a 56-22 semifinal where the moment swallowed the offense whole. So 2026 isn't a skills audit; the numbers passed it. It's an experience-and-poise one: whether a full season as the unquestioned starter turns an elite-efficient college passer into one who carries a playoff night instead of being buried by one.
Written by our staff.
The snaps went the other way.
The role got bigger.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-AMERICA
Named All-American (2026)
1 selectors honored him
ALL-BIG TEN
All-Big Ten mention (2025)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Dan Lanning.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
Elite: yards / att (92nd percentile). Strength: interceptions (92nd percentile). Concern: pass yards (15th percentile).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
9.0620 of 75 QBsSack rate
7.0%62 of 75 QBsSacked on 7.0% of dropbacks (62 of 75) — and still 20 of 75 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 64.2% completion on 67 attempts · 64% completion on 11 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 284 YDS/g, 2.5 TD/g, 8.4 YPA, 0.0 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dan Lanning
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
Heisman market1.3%full market ›
In the mix to repeat All-Big Ten
Based on 2025: #4 of 19 Big Ten QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
One of 52 players who were elite at two different things in 2025. See the others ›
Selector Grid · 2026
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 34–27
vs Boise State
378 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · -5 rush yds (2 car)
A wire-to-wire battle — won by 7 at home.
With B. Ettridge — 48 AVG · 3 IN 20 · 52 LONG · J. McClellan — 6 rec · 150 yds · 1 TD
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-27vs Boise State | 28/37 | 378 | 3 | 0 | 10.2 | — | Season-high 378 yds |
| Wk 2 | L 31-39@ Oklahoma State | 14/29 | 191 | 2 | 0 | 6.6 | 20.6 | |
| Total | 42/66 | 569 | 5 | 0 | 8.4 | 20.6 |
Play style
Moore is a clean, efficient pocket passer, and the metrics are emphatic about it: 97th percentile in efficiency, 98th in both explosive-pass rate and touchdown rate, with a sack rate in the top tenth -- he gets it out, he hits the big one, he finishes drives. What the resume lacks isn't production, it's volume: just 20 career starts across UCLA and Oregon, the real reason a projected top-five pick came back. The blemish the tape keeps is the stage -- a 56-22 semifinal where the moment swallowed the offense whole. So 2026 isn't a skills audit; the numbers passed it. It's an experience-and-poise one: whether a full season as the unquestioned starter turns an elite-efficient college passer into one who carries a playoff night instead of being buried by one.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
2026 Outlook
Oregon
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · Oregon
Returning around him
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Oregon · Last season: 13-2 (AP #5) · Talent rank #3 · 2026 recruiting class #3
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Carson Beck’s 2023 season.
Differs from Carson on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Drew Mestemaker’s path through North Texas.
Matches Drew on
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to J.J. McCarthy's junior season at Michigan (2023).
Matches J.J. on
Differs from J.J. on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#16 in market ▼ from #5 · 4 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #3 — top-tier Heisman contention all season.
As A Redshirt Junior (2026) » Maxwell Award watch list » Big Ten Preseason Honors As A Redshirt Sophomore (2025) » All-Big Ten third team (media) » All-Big Ten honorable mention (coaches) » Capital One Orange Bowl Offensive MVP » Big Ten Co-Offensive Player of the Week (Week 5) » Manning Award fi...