Pittsburgh beats UCF 12-7

UCF1-17
Pittsburgh2-012Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pa. · Crowd 45,926ESPN2

Pittsburgh beat UCF 12-7.

We had Pittsburgh favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

That missed pick 6 is going to haunt us

Q2 7:24 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Barnett 19-yd TD pass to Charles (Q4, 2:51). Pittsburgh went from 98% to 82% to win. Fans right then: “This would be absolute sicko if this game had a UCF comeback in the downpour, limited camera angles, to win it 14-12” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Pittsburgh a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (Pittsburgh was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.

SafetyQ2 7:24
Last play we havePittsburgh 12-7 UCFPlay-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.3 in of rain
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The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 4:19Watson 1-yd runPittsburgh 78% → 88% (+10)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 4:19Watson 1-yd runUCF 22% → 12% (−10)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 7:24Quoted at the top of the page.He got hit while he was throwing though?r/CFB game thread
  2. Q3 0:45UCF fans lament Barnett's incomplete passes and porous offensive lineI hate how UCF has become a high school football team. No hope in sightr/CFB game threadUCF’s O line is… porousr/CFB game thread
  3. Q4 4:43Fans mock the broadcast's poor camera angles and lighting issuesThis would be absolute sicko if this game had a UCF comeback in the downpour, limited camera angles, to win it 14-12r/CFB game threadwtf is this ghetto ass camera angle?r/CFB game thread
  4. Q4 1:31UCF fans mock the offense after Jenkins is sacked for a turnover on downsBeat the spread and know the truth about the offense.r/CFB game threadI think that play entirely sums up how UCF's offense played this game.r/CFB game thread
Pittsburgh’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Pittsburgh -7.5), at 72% for Pittsburgh (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Pittsburgh or UCF flair (245 and 544); both sides share one scale, regulation only.
The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.4 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 8.1 miles away recorded 0.3 in; another 0.2 in fell before the late kickoff, heaviest in the first quarter. Measured at Pittsburgh/alleghen airport, 8.1 miles away. Full conditions below.Kickoff came 1 hour 6 minutes late. Thunder was reported at Pittsburgh/alleghen airport (8.1 miles away) from 3:31 p.m. to 4:28 p.m., around the delay.

Every drive

Pittsburgh scored on 2 of its 12 drives; UCF on 1 of its 12.

Pittsburgh’s drives are teal, UCF’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Pittsburgh: Turned over on downs, from 92 yards out to 46DownsUCF: Punt, from 54 yards out to 43PuntPittsburgh: Punt, from 86 yards out to 84PuntUCF: Punt, from 67 yards out to 59PuntPittsburgh: Field goal, from 93 yards out to 10Field goalUCF: Punt, from 83 yards out to 57PuntQ2Pittsburgh: Punt, from 87 yards out to 50PuntUCF: Safety, from 93 yards out to 100SafetyPittsburgh: Punt, from 64 yards out to 44PuntUCF: Punt, from 97 yards out to 90PuntPittsburgh: Touchdown, from 44 yards out to 0TouchdownUCF: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3UCF: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 50DownsPittsburgh: Punt, from 50 yards out to 56PuntUCF: Turned over on downs, from 71 yards out to 37DownsPittsburgh: Punt, from 63 yards out to 40PuntUCF: Punt, from 80 yards out to 87PuntPittsburgh: Punt, from 63 yards out to 45PuntQ4UCF: Punt, from 73 yards out to 61PuntPittsburgh: Punt, from 80 yards out to 71PuntUCF: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownPittsburgh: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntUCF: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 74DownsPittsburgh: End of game, from 26 yards out to 30End of game

From UCF’s side

UCF’s best moment: Barnett 19-yd TD pass to Charles (Q4 2:51). It lifted UCF’s win chance by 16 points.

How UCF fans took it: “Beat the spread and know the truth about the offense.” r/CFB game thread

“That Bethune Cookman game really fooled me”
A UCF fan

When fans got loud

Busy

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

FirstSecondThirdFourthPittsburgh fansUCF fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Pittsburgh fans

narduzzi“Defense is designed to stop the run and it’s doing its job. There’s like two teams that have ever run on Narduzzi in decades at this point.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: run, half, back, now.

What it cost

Pittsburgh’s chance to make the playoff fell from 4% to 3%.

Make the playoff

UCF · lost1% → 1%
Pittsburgh · won4% → ▼3%

Win the conference

UCF · lost1% → 1%
Pittsburgh · won3% → ▼2%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Pittsburgh 12, UCF 7

UCF covered +7.5 by 2.5. The total, 19, stayed under 55.5.

UCFPittsburghTotal yardsUCF 206Pittsburgh 315206315Passing yardsUCF 186Pittsburgh 212186212Rushing yardsUCF 20Pittsburgh 10320103First downsUCF 9Pittsburgh 15915TurnoversUCF 0Pittsburgh 000Time of possessionUCF 23:48Pittsburgh 36:1223:4836:12
Team totalsUCFPittsburgh
Total yards206315
Passing20 of 31, 186 yds18 of 29, 212 yds
Rushing22 for 20 yds43 for 103 yds
First downs915
Third down4 of 135 of 18
Fourth down0 of 32 of 3
Turnovers00
Penalties9 for 50 yds8 for 64 yds
Time of possession23:4836:12

UCF leaders

  • Passing Alonza Barnett 20 of 31, 186 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Alonza Barnett 13 for 13 yds; Duke Watson 6 for 10 yds
  • Receiving Ric'Darious Farmer 4 for 52 yds; Waden Charles 4 for 41 yds, 1 TD

Pittsburgh leaders

  • Passing Mason Heintschel 18 of 29, 212 yds
  • Rushing Damon Ferguson Jr. 20 for 59 yds, 1 TD; La'Vell Wright 13 for 35 yds
  • Receiving Cataurus Hicks 3 for 64 yds; La'Vell Wright 2 for 28 yds

Kickoff came 1 hour 6 minutes late

70° at kickoff · 0.4 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 8.1 miles away recorded 0.3 in; another 0.2 in fell before the late kickoff

Thunder was reported at Pittsburgh/alleghen airport (8.1 miles away) from 3:31 p.m. to 4:28 p.m., around the delay.

In the game thread, fans talked about the rain.

September game-day temperatures at Acrisure Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Pittsburgh favoredUCF favored80%Win chancePittsburghRaininches per 10 min0.1 inWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportThunder reported
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Pittsburgh favoredUCF favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportThunder reported

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 2:51 left7:32 p.m.
UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12 · Pittsburgh 82% to win
70°
Barnett 19-yd TD pass to Charles

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Pittsburgh/alleghen airport, 8.1 miles away, and Pittsburgh International airport, 12 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

UCF · 5-7

Rated 103rd in our preseason ratings, 103rd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 21-41 @ BYUTop 25 #24 of 667

lost by 20 as a 17.5-point underdog

UCF lost 21-41 at BYU. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 43%.

W 17-14 vs Oklahoma State #159 of 667

won by 3 as a 12.5-point favorite

UCF won 17-14 vs Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 84%, low 26%, high better than 99%.

L 9-48 @ Texas TechTop 25 #9 of 667

lost by 39 as a 24.5-point underdog

UCF lost 9-48 at Texas Tech. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 4%.

L 27-30 vs HoustonTop 25 #64 of 667

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

UCF lost 27-30 vs Houston. Chance to win started at 62%, low 23%, high 86%.

L 3-30 @ Baylor #30 of 667

lost by 27 as a 3.5-point underdog

UCF lost 3-30 at Baylor. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 34%.

W 45-13 vs West Virginia #97 of 667

won by 32 as a 6.5-point favorite

UCF won 45-13 vs West Virginia. Chance to win started at 72%, low 72%, high better than 99%.

L 11-20 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #44 of 667

lost by 9 as a 10.5-point underdog

UCF lost 11-20 at Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 24%.

L 20-27 vs Kansas #32 of 667

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

UCF lost 20-27 vs Kansas. Chance to win started at 45%, low 3%, high 81%.

L 20-34 @ Kansas StateTop 25 #56 of 667

lost by 14 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 34-9 vs North Carolina #70 of 667

won by 25 as a 7.5-point favorite

UCF won 34-9 vs North Carolina. Chance to win started at 77%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

W 68-7 vs North Carolina A&T #254 of 667

won by 61 as a 37-point favorite

UCF won 68-7 vs North Carolina A&T. Never in doubt.

W 17-10 vs Jacksonville State #90 of 667

won by 7 as a 20.5-point favorite

UCF won 17-10 vs Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 92%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Pittsburgh · 8-5

Rated 47th in our preseason ratings, 45th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 14-point win over Georgia Tech as a 2.5-point underdog.

L 17-23 @ East Carolina #52 of 667

lost by 6 as a 13.5-point favorite

Pittsburgh lost 17-23 vs East Carolina. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 88%.

L 7-38 vs MiamiTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 31 as a 6.5-point underdog

Pittsburgh lost 7-38 vs Miami. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 49%.

W 42-28 @ Georgia TechTop 25 #53 of 667

won by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog

Pittsburgh won 42-28 at Georgia Tech. Chance to win started at 36%, low 33%, high 99%.

L 15-37 vs Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 22 as a 12.5-point underdog

Pittsburgh lost 15-37 vs Notre Dame. Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 34%.

W 35-20 @ Stanford #128 of 667

won by 15 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 53-34 vs NC State #46 of 667

won by 19 as a 5.5-point favorite

Pittsburgh won 53-34 vs NC State. Chance to win started at 73%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

W 30-13 @ Syracuse #71 of 667

won by 17 as an 8.5-point favorite

Pittsburgh won 30-13 at Syracuse. Chance to win started at 65%, low 59%, high better than 99%.

W 34-31 @ Florida StateTop 25 #30 of 667

won by 3 as an 11.5-point underdog

Pittsburgh won 34-31 at Florida State. Chance to win started at 16%, low 8%, high 92%.

W 48-7 vs Boston College #81 of 667

won by 41 as a 6.5-point favorite

Pittsburgh won 48-7 vs Boston College. Chance to win started at 78%, low 73%, high better than 99%.

L 27-34 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #32 of 667

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

Pittsburgh lost 27-34 vs Louisville. Chance to win started at 48%, low 2%, high better than 99%.

L 24-31 @ West Virginia #56 of 667

lost by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 45-17 vs Central Michigan #159 of 667

won by 28 as a 21.5-point favorite

Pittsburgh won 45-17 vs Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 95%, low 94%, high better than 99%.

W 61-9 vs Duquesne #146 of 667

won by 52 as a 39.5-point favorite

Pittsburgh won 61-9 vs Duquesne. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Pittsburgh

  • Wk 1Wvs Miami (OH)59-14

UCF

  • Wk 1Wvs Bethune-Cookman73-6

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UCF’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh, 74 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. UCF’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh’s defense

    74 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UCF offense, 79th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 5th

  2. UCF’s success rate against Pittsburgh’s defense

    62 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UCF offense, 36th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 98th

  3. UCF’s rushing EPA against Pittsburgh’s defense

    61 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UCF offense, 39th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 100th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UCFPittsburgh
EPA/play, offense
UCF · 42Pittsburgh · 53
EPA/play, defense
UCF · 75Pittsburgh · 87
Success rate, offense
UCF · 36Pittsburgh · 64
Success rate, defense
UCF · 55Pittsburgh · 98
Explosive-play rate, offense
UCF · 79Pittsburgh · 21
Explosive-play rate, defense
UCF · 82Pittsburgh · 5
Rush EPA, offense
UCF · 39Pittsburgh · 40
Rush EPA, defense
UCF · 84Pittsburgh · 100
Pass EPA, offense
UCF · 34Pittsburgh · 58
Pass EPA, defense
UCF · 56Pittsburgh · 45

The series

Pittsburgh leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2006 · Pittsburgh won the last meeting

  • 2019Pittsburgh 35-34Pittsburgh won 35-34 vs UCF. Chance to win started at 26%, low 6%, high better than 99%.
  • 2018UCF 45-14Pittsburgh lost 14-45 at UCF. Chance to win started at 45%, low under 1%, high 59%.
  • 2006Pittsburgh 52-7

Each line is Pittsburgh’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Pittsburgh fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (20th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

50-50Model 76% · Line 73%Pittsburgh fans · 20thUCF fans · 18thUCFPittsburgh

Pittsburgh favored by 7.5 · Total 55.5

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward UCF.

opened −8.5now −7.5

The total rose 4 points.

opened 51.5now 55.5

Spread: −8.5 → −7.5 · Total: 51.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm, with rain. Feels like 74° at kickoff.

UCF at Pittsburgh · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

  • 74°feels like at kickoff
  • 0.19 inrain at kickoff
  • 61weather score, Rough
  • Roughestof the day's 7 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Acrisure Stadium that day, a 7 pm or 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 87, against 61 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • noon: 65, Rough
  • 1 pm: 68, Rough
  • 2 pm: 69, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 61, Rough (this game)
  • 6 pm: 76, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 87, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 87, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Pittsburgh is worth +2.4 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 20th percentile.

62% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (31-19 home, 22-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.3 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 821 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next