UConn routs Southern Miss 48-20
Team pages: UConn · Southern Miss
UConn routed Southern Miss 48-20. Share this game
We had Southern Miss favored. UConn won.
How it swung
The turning point: 34-yd punt (Q2, 9:53). UConn went from 58% to 86% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UConn a 22% chance, and the closing betting line (UConn was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.
UConn · Q3 7:17UConn 48-20 Southern Miss
UConn wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Southern Miss 20-48 UConnSouthern Miss lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:19Osborne 5-yd TD run, UConn leads 14-0UConn 81% → 60% (−21)
- 2Q1 5:0545-yd puntUConn 65% → 88% (+23)
- 3Q1 3:1945-yd puntUConn 81% → 60% (−21)
- 4Q2 9:5334-yd puntUConn 58% → 86% (+28)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:19Osborne 5-yd TD run, UConn leads 14-0Southern Miss 19% → 40% (+21)
- 2Q1 5:0545-yd puntSouthern Miss 35% → 12% (−23)
- 3Q1 3:1945-yd puntSouthern Miss 19% → 40% (+21)
- 4Q2 9:5334-yd puntSouthern Miss 42% → 14% (−28)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (UConn -3.5), at 53% for UConn (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
UConn scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Southern Miss on 4 of its 13.
UConn’s drives are teal, Southern Miss’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Southern Miss’s side
Southern Miss’s best moment: 45-yd punt (Q1 3:19). It lifted Southern Miss’s win chance by 21 points.
What it cost
Southern Miss’s chance to make the playoff fell from 7% to 0%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
UConn 48, Southern Miss 20
UConn covered −3.5 by 24.5. The total, 68, went over 54.5.
| Team totals | UConn | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 436 | 401 |
| Passing | 18 of 25, 223 yds | 29 of 51, 299 yds |
| Rushing | 46 for 213 yds | 27 for 102 yds |
| First downs | 24 | 21 |
| Third down | 8 of 14 | 5 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Penalties | 8 for 74 yds | 6 for 69 yds |
| Time of possession | 34:04 | 25:56 |
UConn leaders
- Passing Kalieb Osborne 16 of 22, 214 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Cyncir Bowers 11 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Kenji Christian 15 for 64 yds
- Receiving Shamar Porter 2 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Xavier Watson 2 for 37 yds
Southern Miss leaders
- Passing Landy Lyddy 14 of 25, 194 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Steven Robinson 18 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Jamarice Wilder 6 for 19 yds
- Receiving Mario Sanders II 7 for 81 yds; Broderick Peters 3 for 50 yds
No rain and calm
95° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 7
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 61 other games played at M. M. Roberts Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 76°, with about 7 in 10 games between 70° and 81°.
September game-day temperatures at M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Hattiesburg Muni airport, 6.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
UConn · 1-1
Rated 128th in our preseason ratings, 116th now, up 12 spots.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last two games
Southern Miss · 1-1
Rated 57th in our preseason ratings, 59th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Southern Miss
- Wk 1Wvs Alcorn State49-3
- Wk 2Lat Auburn8-43
UConn
- Wk 1Wvs Lafayette56-7
- Wk 2Lvs Maryland14-38
Power rating by week
Southern Miss is rated 5.6 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: UConn’s rushing EPA against Southern Miss, 71 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UConn’s rushing EPA against Southern Miss’s defense
UConn offense, 79th percentile · Southern Miss defense, 8th
UConn’s explosive plays against Southern Miss’s defense
UConn offense, 91st percentile · Southern Miss defense, 37th
UConn’s EPA/play against Southern Miss’s defense
UConn offense, 70th percentile · Southern Miss defense, 16th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Southern Miss fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (82nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 78%
- Line · 39%
- Southern Miss fans · 82nd
- UConn fans · 84th
UConn favored by 3.5 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
UConn by 3.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward UConn.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +2.5 → +3.5 · Total: 55.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 92° at kickoff.
UConn at Southern Miss · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg
- 92°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 71weather score, Rough
- 3rdbest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the third best of the day's eight kickoff times. At M. M. Roberts Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 83, against 71 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 50, Rough
- 11:45 am: 48, Harsh
- 1 pm: 46, Harsh
- 2:30 pm: 46, Harsh
- 3:30 pm: 48, Harsh
- 6 pm: 71, Rough (this game)
- 6:30 pm: 81, Mixed
- 7 pm: 83, Mixed
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Southern Miss is worth +3.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 35th percentile.
35% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (15-28 home, 13-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,171 miles to get here.