Southern Miss routs Alcorn State 49-3

Team pages: Alcorn State · Southern Miss

Alcorn State1-13
Southern Miss1-049Final
Sat, Sep 5 · M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, Miss. · Crowd 26,246ESPN+

Southern Miss routed Alcorn State 49-3.

We had Southern Miss favored. It won.

Next: Alcorn State beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53-51, Sat Sep 12

Next: Southern Miss lost to Auburn 43-8, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Southern Miss an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Southern Miss was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.

FinalSouthern Miss 49-3 Alcorn StateSouthern Miss wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won49-3Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won49-3Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost3-49Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost3-49Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Southern Miss’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Southern Miss -20.5), at 93% for Southern Miss (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Southern Miss’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 13:37Tolbert intercepted by Albert at the USM15Q1, 13:37 · Southern Miss 0, Alcorn State 00-0score after the play0-0score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 7:30Hampton intercepted by Ruffin at the USM41returned 32 yardsQ1, 7:30 · Southern Miss 0, Alcorn State 0▼4%Southern Miss’s chance to win, 93% to 89%▼4%Southern Miss’s chance to win, 93% to 89%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q1, 2:29Robinson 2-yd TD runSouthern Miss goes ahead 7-3Q1, 2:29 · Southern Miss 7, Alcorn State 3▲4%Southern Miss’s chance to win, 91% to 95%▲4%Southern Miss’s chance to win, 91% to 95%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 10:55Hampton 38-yd TD pass to SandersSouthern Miss leads 14-3Q2, 10:55 · Southern Miss 14, Alcorn State 314-3score after the play14-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 0:08Wilder 2-yd TD runSouthern Miss leads 21-3Q2, 0:08 · Southern Miss 21, Alcorn State 321-3score after the play21-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q3, 11:12Robinson 3-yd TD runSouthern Miss leads 28-3Q3, 11:12 · Southern Miss 28, Alcorn State 328-3score after the play28-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q3, 9:42Tolbert intercepted by Albert at the ASU45Q3, 9:42 · Southern Miss 28, Alcorn State 328-3score after the play28-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q3, 9:23Wilder 29-yd TD runSouthern Miss leads 35-3Q3, 9:23 · Southern Miss 35, Alcorn State 3▼2%Southern Miss’s chance to win, 100% to 98%▼2%Southern Miss’s chance to win, 100% to 98%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  9. Q3, 2:00Robinson 2-yd TD runSouthern Miss leads 42-3Q3, 2:00 · Southern Miss 42, Alcorn State 342-3score after the play42-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  10. Q4, 11:11Henderson 1-yd TD runSouthern Miss leads 49-3Q4, 11:11 · Southern Miss 49, Alcorn State 349-3score after the play49-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  11. Q4, 4:40Wilson 14-yd runfumblesQ4, 4:40 · Southern Miss 49, Alcorn State 349-3score after the play49-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Southern Miss scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Alcorn State on 1 of its 13.

Southern Miss’s drives are teal, Alcorn State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Alcorn State: Interception, from 61 yards out to 57InterceptionSouthern Miss: Missed field goal, from 85 yards out to 17Missed FGAlcorn State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 61PuntSouthern Miss: Interception, from 81 yards out to 75InterceptionAlcorn State: Field goal, from 9 yards out to 4Field goalSouthern Miss: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 50PuntQ2Southern Miss: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Interception, from 72 yards out to 12InterceptionSouthern Miss: Touchdown, from 97 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: End of half, from 76 yards out to 78End of halfQ3Southern Miss: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 60InterceptionSouthern Miss: Touchdown, from 42 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 78PuntSouthern Miss: Punt, from 60 yards out to 54PuntAlcorn State: Punt, from 90 yards out to 75PuntSouthern Miss: Touchdown, from 36 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntSouthern Miss: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Alcorn State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 60InterceptionSouthern Miss: Punt, from 81 yards out to 60PuntAlcorn State: Fumble, from 81 yards out to 55FumbleSouthern Miss: Punt, from 45 yards out to 45PuntAlcorn State: End of game, from 82 yards out to 62End of game

Box score

Southern Miss 49, Alcorn State 3

Southern Miss covered −20.5 by 25.5. The total, 52, went over 51.5.

Alcorn StateSouthern MissTotal yardsAlcorn State 223Southern Miss 543223543Passing yardsAlcorn State 119Southern Miss 226119226Rushing yardsAlcorn State 104Southern Miss 317104317First downsAlcorn State 11Southern Miss 321132TurnoversAlcorn State 5Southern Miss 151Time of possessionAlcorn State 28:39Southern Miss 31:2128:3931:21
Team totalsAlcorn StateSouthern Miss
Total yards223543
Passing15 of 23, 119 yds15 of 27, 226 yds
Rushing35 for 104 yds57 for 317 yds
First downs1132
Third down5 of 145 of 12
Fourth down0 of 02 of 2
Turnovers51
Penalties7 for 69 yds4 for 25 yds
Time of possession28:3931:21

Alcorn State leaders

  • Passing Jaylon Tolbert 15 of 22, 119 yds, 4 INT
  • Rushing Joshua Tate 8 for 33 yds; Ernest Temple 9 for 32 yds
  • Receiving Tyree Kelly 3 for 39 yds; Malachi Augustus 1 for 35 yds

Southern Miss leaders

  • Passing Ethan Hampton 13 of 23, 180 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Steven Robinson 23 for 123 yds, 3 TD; Jamarice Wilder 14 for 90 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Mario Sanders II 6 for 94 yds, 1 TD; MJ Johnson 1 for 43 yds

Feels like 94° to 103° through the game

94° at kickoff · feels like 94° to 103° · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the southeast, gusts to 22

A feels-like 103° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 103°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 103°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 61 other games played at M. M. Roberts Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 79°, with about 7 in 10 games between 73° and 83°.

September game-day temperatures at M. M. Roberts Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Southern Miss favoredAlcorn State favored100%Win chanceSouthern MissRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphTemperature and feels likedegrees F80°110°feels like 94°air 85°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Southern Miss favoredAlcorn State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Temperature and feels like · degrees F80°110°feels like 94°air 85°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:44 left4:03 p.m.
Alcorn State 0, Southern Miss 0 · Southern Miss 93% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the east-northeast · 94°, feels like 103°
McDonald 1-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Hattiesburg Muni airport, 6.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Alcorn State · 5-7

Rated 167th in our preseason ratings, 167th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 11-point win over Grambling as a 1.5-point underdog.

L 21-27 vs Jackson State #75 of 667

lost by 6 as a 19.5-point favorite

W 27-16 vs Grambling #195 of 667

won by 11 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 35-17 vs Southern #260 of 667

won by 18 as an 11-point favorite

W 33-14 @ Texas Southern #223 of 667

won by 19 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 32-10 vs Mississippi Valley State #253 of 667

won by 22 as a 10.5-point favorite

L 28-33 @ Florida A&M #225 of 667

lost by 5 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 42-0 vs Lincoln (CA) #445 of 667

L 12-13 vs Prairie View A&M #181 of 667

lost by 1 as a 3-point underdog

L 20-24 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #255 of 667

lost by 4 as a 7-point underdog

L 0-63 @ Mississippi State #32 of 667

lost by 63 as a 42.5-point underdog

Alcorn State lost 0-63 at Mississippi State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 31-41 @ Alabama A&M #177 of 667

lost by 10 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 10-20 @ Northwestern State #262 of 667

lost by 10 as a 10.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Southern Miss · 7-6

Rated 57th in our preseason ratings.

L 16-27 vs Western Kentucky #89 of 667

lost by 11 as a 2.5-point favorite

Southern Miss lost 16-27 vs Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 65%, low 2%, high 88%.

L 18-28 vs Troy #117 of 667

lost by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite

Southern Miss lost 18-28 vs Troy. Chance to win started at 75%, low under 1%, high 82%.

L 35-42 @ South Alabama #112 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

Southern Miss lost 35-42 at South Alabama. Chance to win started at 46%, low under 1%, high 55%.

L 14-41 vs Texas State #61 of 667

lost by 27 as a 3.5-point favorite

Southern Miss lost 14-41 vs Texas State. Chance to win started at 67%, low under 1%, high 71%.

W 27-21 @ Arkansas State #129 of 667

won by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite

Southern Miss won 27-21 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 71%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

W 49-21 vs UL Monroe #180 of 667

won by 28 as a 13.5-point favorite

Southern Miss won 49-21 vs UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 89%, low 66%, high better than 99%.

W 22-10 @ Louisiana #135 of 667

won by 12 as a 4.5-point favorite

Southern Miss won 22-10 at Louisiana. Chance to win started at 54%, low 21%, high better than 99%.

W 38-35 @ Georgia Southern #129 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

Southern Miss won 38-35 at Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 49%, low 21%, high better than 99%.

W 42-25 vs Jacksonville State #98 of 667

won by 17 as a 5.5-point favorite

Southern Miss won 42-25 vs Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 73%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

L 20-30 @ Louisiana Tech #120 of 667

lost by 10 as a 3.5-point underdog

Southern Miss lost 20-30 at Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 34%.

W 38-22 vs App State #107 of 667

won by 16 as a 2.5-point underdog

Southern Miss won 38-22 vs App State. Chance to win started at 50%, low 24%, high better than 99%.

W 38-20 vs Jackson State #103 of 667

won by 18 as a 13.5-point favorite

Southern Miss won 38-20 vs Jackson State. Chance to win started at 87%, low 84%, high better than 99%.

L 17-34 vs Mississippi State #37 of 667

lost by 17 as a 15.5-point underdog

Southern Miss lost 17-34 vs Mississippi State. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 32%.

The series

Southern Miss leads the series 4-0

4 meetings since 2009 · Southern Miss has won the last 4

  • 2023Southern Miss 40-14Southern Miss won 40-14 vs Alcorn State. Chance to win started at 93%, low 93%, high better than 99%.
  • 2019Southern Miss 38-10Southern Miss won 38-10 vs Alcorn State. Chance to win started at 97%, low 94%, high better than 99%.
  • 2014Southern Miss 26-20
  • 2009Southern Miss 52-0

Each line is Southern Miss’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Southern Miss’s chances here.

50-50Model · 82%Line · 95%Alcorn StateSouthern Miss

Southern Miss favored by 20.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Southern Miss by 20.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Alcorn State.

opened −21now −20.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 50.5now 51.5

Spread: −21 → −20.5 · Total: 50.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 100° at kickoff.

Alcorn State at Southern Miss · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg

  • 100°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 45weather score, Harsh

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At M. M. Roberts Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 83, against 45 at 4 pm.

  • 11 am: 54, Rough
  • noon: 48, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 41, Harsh
  • 3:15 pm: 43, Harsh
  • 4 pm: 45, Harsh (this game)
  • 6 pm: 67, Rough
  • 7 pm: 83, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Southern Miss is worth +3.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 35th percentile.

35% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (15-28 home, 13-34 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 113 miles to get here.

Where next