CFB Zeitgeist Score
51
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 63rd percentile.
Jayden Davis
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
34 TACKLES · 1 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Fresno State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive back · Fresno State
Returning around him
- 17% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: +3 net (13 in / 10 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Fresno State · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #90 · 2026 recruiting class #103
DB · FRESNO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Jayden Davis
- 3
- #11
- 6-1 | 192 lb
- Fresno, CA
Heisman Heat
#11662
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DB AWARD
Jim Thorpe
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Fresno State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8144 | No. 1962 recruit | HighSchool | Fresno State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Fresno State
Composite
0.8144
#1962 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jayden Davis
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jayden Davis
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 10g
34Tackles
2Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Projected (13g)
44Tackles
2.6Tackles for loss
1.3Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 34): needs 15.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 34): needs 22/game over remaining 3.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 1): needs 1.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 1): needs 3/game over remaining 3.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jayden Davis is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Fresno State's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 2.0 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
34 77th
SOLO
23 82nd
TFL
2.0 71st
SACK
1.0 82nd
QBH
2 66th
Coverage & Takeaways
INT
1 65th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 7-31@ Kansas | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 36-27@ Oregon State | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 6 tackles |
| Wk 3 | W 56-7vs Southern | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 23-21@ Hawai'i | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | W 20-17vs Nevada | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | L 21-49@ Colorado State | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | L 0-23vs San Diego State | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 30-7@ Boise State | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 24-3vs Wyoming | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 41-14@ San José State | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 34 | 23 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Fresno State10-4HC: Jeff Tedford · Balanced
2023Fresno State9-4HC: Jeff Tedford · Pass-leaning
2025Fresno State9-4HC: Matt Entz · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | 34 | 23 | 2.0 | 1.0 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Fresno State | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Fresno State | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 38 | 25 | 2.0 | 1.0 | -- | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 34 | #1138/4942 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 2.0 | #1443/4972 | 71st pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 1.0 | #872/4972 | 82nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Interceptions | 1 | #308/869 | 65th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 2 | #647/1878 | 66th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 23 | #839/4584 | 82nd pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return avg | 19.0 | #218/578 | 62nd pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return yards | 19 | #316/578 | 46th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Road6g | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Losses3g | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort
51Mid-pack
Concern: passes defended (17th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jayden DavisFresno StateMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 76% simDaniel WingateMaryland· 74% simMicah DaveyUTEP· 73% sim
QB hurries
Solo tackles
Sacks
Tackles
Tackles for loss
Interceptions
Passes defended
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Hybrid Nickel
Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.
S
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Evan Fields’s 2021 season.
Evan Fields
90%match
#2
Dan Jackson
NFL Rd 7
89%
#3
Matthew Hill
90%
#4
Christian Charles
88%
#5
Torren Union
88%
Matches Evan on
PD rate
Height
Weight
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Rayquon Hartley's senior season at Middle Tennessee (2023).
Rayquon Hartley
93%match
#2
Dwight Toombs II
84%
#3
Ethan Powell
81%
#4
Percy Courtney Jr.
79%
#5
Jaylen Sneed
76%
Matches Rayquon on
Class year
Height
PD rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Matt Entz
Pass share
44.2%
373 pass / 471 run
Plays / game
64.9
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
282 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Jeff Tedford
Fresno State
2023
Jeff Tedford
Fresno State
2025era →
Matt Entz
Fresno State
Coaching transition mid-career: Jeff Tedford → Matt Entz. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownFresno, CA
Height6'1"
Weight192 lb
Class3
PositionDB
Jersey11
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFresno State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fresno State | DB3 | #11662 | #11609 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | Fresno State | DB3 | #13294 | #13025 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | Fresno State | DB3 | #10217 | #9964 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | Mountain West | DB | 3 | No. 11 | 6-1 | 192 lb | Fresno, CA |
| 2024 | Fresno State | Mountain West | DB | 3 | No. 11 | 6-1 | 192 lb | Fresno, CA |
| 2023 | Fresno State | Mountain West | DB | 3 | No. 11 | 6-1 | 192 lb | Fresno, CA |
| 2022 | Fresno State | Mountain West | DB | 3 | No. 11 | 6-1 | 192 lb | Fresno, CA |