Air Force beats UConn 35-26
Air Force beat UConn 35-26. Share this game
We had Air Force favored. It won.
Next: UConn vs North Carolina, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET · UConn underdog by 7
Next: Air Force at Army, Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · Air Force underdog by 3
Not kicking the extra point earlier costed us big time
A UConn fanHow it swung
The turning point: Hodges 1-yd TD run, Air Force leads 35-26 (Q4, 3:09). Air Force went from 72% to 99% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Air Force a 56% chance, and the closing betting line (Air Force was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.
Favored the whole way: Air Force never fell below 63%.
UConn never had better than a 36% chance.
Air Force · Q1 1:27Air Force 35-26 UConn
Air Force wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UConn 26-35 Air ForceUConn lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:46Christian 46-yd TD run, two-point try fails, cuts it to 28-26Air Force 83% → 72% (−11)
- 2Q4 3:094th and 1Hodges 1-yd TD run, Air Force leads 35-26Air Force 72% → 99% (+27)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:46Christian 46-yd TD run, two-point try fails, cuts it to 28-26UConn 17% → 28% (+11)
- 2Q4 3:094th and 1Hodges 1-yd TD run, Air Force leads 35-26UConn 28% → 1% (−27)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Air Force -2.5), at 64% for Air Force (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Air Force scored on 5 of its 10 drives; UConn on 4 of its 10.
Air Force’s drives are teal, UConn’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From UConn’s side
UConn’s best moment: Christian 46-yd TD run, two-point try fails, cuts it to 28-26 (Q4 14:46). It lifted UConn’s win chance by 11 points.
When fans got loud
Loud
The jump was loud; the crowd was quiet.
Box score
Air Force 35, UConn 26
Air Force covered −2.5 by 6.5. The total, 61, went over 53.5.
| Team totals | UConn | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 368 | 359 |
| Passing | 17 of 33, 263 yds | 0 of 3, 0 yds |
| Rushing | 21 for 105 yds | 74 for 366 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 24 |
| Third down | 4 of 10 | 7 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 5 for 46 yds | 3 for 35 yds |
| Time of possession | 18:06 | 41:49 |
UConn leaders
- Passing Kalieb Osborne 17 of 33, 263 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Kenji Christian 5 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Trey Cornist 4 for 20 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Alex Godavitarne 1 for 55 yds, 1 TD; Ky Wilson 3 for 44 yds
Air Force leaders
- Passing Kemper Hodges 0 of 1, 0 yds
- Rushing Kemper Hodges 35 for 200 yds, 4 TD; Owen Allen 18 for 70 yds
No rain through the game
57° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 48°, with about 7 in 10 games between 34° and 61°.
October game-day temperatures at Falcon Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Air Force Academy airport, 2.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
UConn · 4-3
Rated 128th in our preseason ratings, 92nd now, up 36 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 14-point win over Temple as a 3.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Air Force · 5-2
Rated 80th in our preseason ratings, 77th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Air Force
- Wk 4Wat Nevada36-33
- Wk 5Wvs Navy14-9
- Wk 6Wat Northern Illinois28-7
- Wk 7Wvs UNLV41-31
- Wk 8Lat Wyoming14-28
UConn
- Wk 3Wat Southern Miss48-20
- Wk 4Lat Miami (OH)21-24
- Wk 5Lvs Syracuse41-42
- Wk 6Wat Temple34-20
- Wk 8Wvs Massachusetts35-16
Power rating by week
Air Force is rated 1.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Air Force’s explosive plays against UConn, 87 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Air Force’s explosive plays against UConn’s defense
Air Force offense, 0th percentile · UConn defense, 87th
Air Force’s passing EPA against UConn’s defense
Air Force offense, 0th percentile · UConn defense, 74th
Air Force’s success rate against UConn’s defense
Air Force offense, 93rd percentile · UConn defense, 37th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
UConn leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2025 · UConn won the last meeting
- 2025UConn 26-16
Each line is Air Force’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Air Force fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (70th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Air Force favored by 2.5 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go
Air Force by 2.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 304 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward UConn.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −3 → −2.5 · Total: 55.5 → 53.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Air Force is worth +2.7 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile.
64% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (27-15 home, 22-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.3 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
6,643 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,697 miles to get here.