Wyoming upsets Air Force 28-14
Wyoming beat Air Force 28-14 as a 7-point underdog. Share this game
We had Air Force favored. Wyoming won.
Next: Air Force vs UConn, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET · Air Force favored by 2.5
Next: Wyoming at UNLV, Sat Nov 7 · 10:30 PM ET
That’s one of the craziest plays I’ve ever seen.
How it swung
The turning point: Hughes 68-yd TD run, Wyoming goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 14:10). Wyoming went from 39% to 63% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wyoming a 22% chance, and the closing betting line (Wyoming was a 7-point underdog) put it at 29%.
Wyoming 28-14 Air Force
Wyoming wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Air Force 14-28 WyomingAir Force lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:10Hughes 68-yd TD run, Wyoming goes ahead 7-0Wyoming 39% → 63% (+24)
- 2Q2 0:38Hughes 12-yd TD pass to Richardson, Wyoming leads 21-6Wyoming 77% → 93% (+16)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:10Hughes 68-yd TD run, Wyoming goes ahead 7-0Air Force 61% → 37% (−24)
- 2Q2 0:38Hughes 12-yd TD pass to Richardson, Wyoming leads 21-6Air Force 23% → 7% (−16)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Air Force -7), at 39% for Wyoming (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Wyoming scored on 4 of its 7 drives; Air Force on 3 of its 8.
Wyoming’s drives are teal, Air Force’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Air Force’s side
Air Force’s best moment: Medders 5-yd TD pass to Wayne, cuts it to 21-14 (Q3 6:53). It lifted Air Force’s win chance by 13 points.
When fans got loud
Roaring
Fans peaked in the fourth quarter.
The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Air Force’s chance to win the conference fell from 2% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Air Force plays vs UConn on Sat Oct 31 with a 1% chance to win the conference. Wyoming plays at UNLV on Sat Nov 7 with a 3% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Wyoming 28, Air Force 14
Wyoming covered +7 by 21. The total, 42, stayed under 46.5.
| Team totals | Air Force | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 387 | 301 |
| Passing | 8 of 15, 83 yds | 10 of 17, 113 yds |
| Rushing | 63 for 304 yds | 24 for 188 yds |
| First downs | 23 | 13 |
| Third down | 8 of 15 | 2 of 6 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Penalties | 8 for 65 yds | 4 for 25 yds |
| Time of possession | 37:45 | 22:15 |
Air Force leaders
- Passing Howard Fisher IV 3 of 7, 36 yds
- Rushing Evan Medders 21 for 115 yds; Gage LaDue 10 for 57 yds
- Receiving Matt Long 2 for 30 yds; Gage LaDue 1 for 21 yds
Wyoming leaders
- Passing Tyler Hughes 10 of 17, 113 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Tyler Hughes 12 for 146 yds, 1 TD; Markell Holman 9 for 35 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jake Wilson 2 for 36 yds, 1 TD; Charlie Coenen 2 for 33 yds
No rain and calm
48° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north-northwest, gusts to 13
October game-day temperatures at War Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Laramie/gen. Brees airport, 5.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Air Force · 5-1
Rated 80th in our preseason ratings, 65th now, up 15 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
Wyoming · 4-3
Rated 111th in our preseason ratings, 132nd now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over San José State as a 4.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Wyoming
- Wk 3Lat Central Michigan10-24
- Wk 4Wvs Hawai'i27-10
- Wk 5Lat North Dakota State0-28
- Wk 6Wat San José State16-13
- Wk 7Wvs Northern Illinois41-23
Air Force
- Wk 2Lvs North Dakota State32-38
- Wk 4Wat Nevada36-33
- Wk 5Wvs Navy14-9
- Wk 6Wat Northern Illinois28-7
- Wk 7Wvs UNLV41-31
Power rating by week
Air Force is rated 6.5 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Air Force’s explosive plays against Wyoming, 95 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Air Force’s explosive plays against Wyoming’s defense
Air Force offense, 0th percentile · Wyoming defense, 95th
Air Force’s rushing EPA against Wyoming’s defense
Air Force offense, 99th percentile · Wyoming defense, 9th
Air Force’s success rate against Wyoming’s defense
Air Force offense, 90th percentile · Wyoming defense, 15th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Air Force leads the series 32-28-3
63 meetings since 1957 · Air Force won the last meeting
- 2025Air Force 24-21
- 2024Wyoming 31-19
- 2023Air Force 34-27
- 2022Wyoming 17-14
- 2021Air Force 24-14
Each line is Wyoming’s chance to win through that meeting. Wyoming is 4-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Wyoming fans are in a better mood than Air Force fans (74th percentile vs 10th among FBS fanbases), even with Air Force favored.
Air Force favored by 7 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
Air Force by 7, on the usual path until Q2 14:21
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 395 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Air Force.
The total rose 4 points.
Spread: +6.5 → +7 · Total: 42.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Wyoming is worth +4.9 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 64th percentile.
61% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (25-16 home, 16-33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 7,218 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 164 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Wyoming 17, Air Force 14Sep 16, 2022
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.