Wyoming at UNLV
Wyoming (5‑3) travels to UNLV (5‑3), with UNLV favored by 6. The model gives UNLV a 76% shot. Wyoming’s passing offense is at the 23rd percentile; UNLV’s pass defense is at the 87th.
How they got here
Last three games
Wyoming · 5-3
Rated 111th in our preseason ratings, 124th now.
Three straight wins, capped by a 14-point win over Air Force as a 7-point underdog.
Last three games
UNLV · 5-3
Rated 91st in our preseason ratings, 95th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 6-point win over North Dakota State as a 3-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Wyoming’s passing EPA against UNLV, 64 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Wyoming’s passing EPA against UNLV’s defense
Wyoming offense, 23rd percentile · UNLV defense, 87th
Wyoming’s explosive plays against UNLV’s defense
Wyoming offense, 3rd percentile · UNLV defense, 39th
Wyoming’s success rate against UNLV’s defense
Wyoming offense, 70th percentile · UNLV defense, 42nd
What’s at stake
Wyoming
- Wyoming needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 78% with a loss.
- Jay Sawvel is behind Craig Bohl’s year-3 pace (5-3 vs. 6-2) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
UNLV
- UNLV is 1 game back in Mountain West with 3 left to make it up — 25% to win it with a win here, 8% with a loss.
- Dan Mullen is behind Barry Odom’s year-2 pace (5-3 vs. 6-2) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
Wyoming leads the series 14-13
27 meetings since 1978 · UNLV has won the last 2
- 2025UNLV 31-17
- 2023UNLV 34-14
- 2020Wyoming 45-14
- 2019Wyoming 53-17
- 2016UNLV 69-66
Each line is UNLV’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Wyoming
The chip · vs the national mediaCowboy fans are tired of being filed under 'cold, remote, forgettable' by people who've never had to play a December night in Laramie. They say the altitude humbles every recruiting-ranking darling who comes to War Memorial thinking it'll be easy.
What this game touches
The 4-8 slip after the Bohl steadiness. Craig Bohl built a decade of bowl trips and toughness, then handed off to Jay Sawvel — and 2025 backslid to 4-8, no bowl, the kind of season that tests whether the program's altitude-and-grit identity still wins games or just describes them.
UNLV
The chip · vs the national mediaRebels fans are tired of being treated as a novelty act — the casino-town team nobody took seriously. They'll tell you UNLV has been one of the best stories in the Group of Five for three years running, even if the rankings keep forgetting.
What this game touches
The title game keeps ending the same way. UNLV went 10-3 in Dan Mullen's first year, 2025, and reached the Mountain West championship game — only to lose 38-21 to Boise State, the Rebels' third straight title-game defeat to the Broncos, then fell to Ohio 17-10 in the Frisco Bowl. The program is good enough to get to the last game and hasn't yet been good enough to win it.
Best players
Wyoming
- Ethan Stuhlsatz (LB) · 59 tackles
- Steven Perez (LB) · 54 tackles
- Jones Thomas (S) · 53 tackles
UNLV
- Jake Pope (S) · 70 tackles
- Cam Santee (LB) · 61 tackles
- Tre Fulton (DB) · 51 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. UNLV: Jackson Arnold (1,660 passing yards) and Jai'Den Thomas (657 rushing yards).
The spread has moved 2.5 points toward Wyoming since opening (−8.5 → −6).
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (45.5 → 48.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Wyoming fans are in a better mood than UNLV fans (78th percentile vs 46th among FBS fanbases), even with UNLV favored.
UNLV favored by 6 · Total 48.5
UNLV by 6: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
UNLV’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Home field
UNLV is worth +1.7 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 14th percentile.
49% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (21-22 home, 20-29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.8 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 631 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
UNLV
- Wk 4Wat Akron38-10
- Wk 5Wvs California39-31
- Wk 6Wvs North Dakota State13-7
- Wk 7Lat Air Force31-41
- Wk 9Wvs Northern Illinois31-24
Wyoming
- Wk 4Wvs Hawai'i27-10
- Wk 5Lat North Dakota State0-28
- Wk 6Wat San José State16-13
- Wk 7Wvs Northern Illinois41-23
- Wk 8Wvs Air Force28-14
Power rating by week
UNLV is rated 2.2 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Wyoming.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −8.5 → −6 · Total: 45.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- UNLV 69, Wyoming 66Nov 12, 2016