Louisiana beats Charlotte 34-7

Team pages: Louisiana · Charlotte

Louisiana3-134
Charlotte0-47Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. · Crowd 14,311ESPN+

Louisiana beat Charlotte 34-7.

We had Louisiana favored. It won.

Next: Louisiana beat Arkansas State 23-20, Sat Oct 3

Next: Charlotte lost to Memphis 59-8, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Johnson 54-yd fumble return TD, cuts it to 10-7 (Q2, 0:24). Louisiana went from 90% to 73% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisiana an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisiana was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Favored the whole way: Louisiana never fell below 63%.

Charlotte never had better than a 36% chance.

Fumble return TDCharlotte · Q2 0:24
FinalLouisiana 34-7 CharlotteLouisiana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q476% at halfLouisianaWon34-71−17Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q476% at halfLouisianaWon34-71Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q424% at halfLouisianaLowest 0%Lost7-341+17Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q424% at halfLouisianaLowest 0%Lost7-341Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 0:24FumbleJohnson 54-yd fumble return TD, cuts it to 10-7Louisiana 90% → 73% (−17)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 0:24FumbleJohnson 54-yd fumble return TD, cuts it to 10-7Charlotte 10% → 27% (+17)
Louisiana’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Louisiana -9.5), at 70% for Louisiana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Louisiana’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 12:39Gonzales sacked for a 9-yd lossQ1, 12:39 · Louisiana 0, Charlotte 0▲5%Louisiana’s chance to win, 64% to 69%▲5%Louisiana’s chance to win, 64% to 69%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 5:59Winfield 3-yd TD pass to BlancoLouisiana leads 10-0Q2, 5:59 · Louisiana 10, Charlotte 0▲7%Louisiana’s chance to win, 82% to 89%▲7%Louisiana’s chance to win, 82% to 89%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 0:24Johnson 54-yd fumble return TDcuts it to 10-7Q2, 0:24 · Louisiana 10, Charlotte 7▼17%Louisiana’s chance to win, 90% to 73%▼17%Louisiana’s chance to win, 90% to 73%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q3, 9:11Garner 7-yd TD runLouisiana leads 17-7Q3, 9:11 · Louisiana 17, Charlotte 7▲5%Louisiana’s chance to win, 82% to 87%▲5%Louisiana’s chance to win, 82% to 87%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q3, 3:24Gonzales intercepted by Gordon at the CLT37Q3, 3:24 · Louisiana 17, Charlotte 7▲2%Louisiana’s chance to win, 90% to 92%▲2%Louisiana’s chance to win, 90% to 92%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q4, 9:21Winfield 9-yd TD runLouisiana leads 27-7Q4, 9:21 · Louisiana 27, Charlotte 727-7score after the play27-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 4:18White 8-yd runfumblesQ4, 4:18 · Louisiana 27, Charlotte 727-7score after the play27-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Louisiana scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Charlotte on 0 of its 12.

Louisiana’s drives are teal, Charlotte’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Charlotte: Punt, from 65 yards out to 66PuntLouisiana: Punt, from 82 yards out to 76PuntCharlotte: Punt, from 61 yards out to 68PuntLouisiana: Field goal, from 61 yards out to 11Field goalCharlotte: Punt, from 86 yards out to 59PuntLouisiana: Punt, from 87 yards out to 65PuntQ2Charlotte: Punt, from 68 yards out to 65PuntLouisiana: Touchdown, from 37 yards out to 0TouchdownCharlotte: Punt, from 80 yards out to 75PuntLouisiana: Fumble Return returned for a touchdown, from 68 yards out to 46Fumble Return TDLouisiana: End of half, from 75 yards out to 83End of halfQ3Louisiana: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownCharlotte: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 50FumbleLouisiana: Punt, from 50 yards out to 51PuntCharlotte: Punt, from 87 yards out to 78PuntLouisiana: Punt, from 65 yards out to 51PuntCharlotte: Interception, from 86 yards out to 86InterceptionLouisiana: Field goal, from 37 yards out to 27Field goalQ4Charlotte: Turned over on downs, from 85 yards out to 77DownsLouisiana: Touchdown, from 23 yards out to 0TouchdownCharlotte: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 30FumbleLouisiana: Punt, from 70 yards out to 66PuntCharlotte: Fumble, from 88 yards out to 77FumbleLouisiana: Touchdown, from 23 yards out to 0TouchdownCharlotte: End of game, from 75 yards out to 68End of game

From Charlotte’s side

Charlotte’s best moment: Johnson 54-yd fumble return TD, cuts it to 10-7 (Q2 0:24). It lifted Charlotte’s win chance by 17 points.

What it cost

Louisiana’s chance to make the playoff rose from 2% to 3%.

Make the playoff

Louisiana · won2% → ▲3%
Charlotte · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Louisiana 34, Charlotte 7

Louisiana covered −9.5 by 17.5. The total, 41, stayed under 49.5.

LouisianaCharlotteTotal yardsLouisiana 292Charlotte 137292137Passing yardsLouisiana 159Charlotte 111159111Rushing yardsLouisiana 133Charlotte 2613326First downsLouisiana 21Charlotte 6216TurnoversLouisiana 1Charlotte 414Time of possessionLouisiana 40:53Charlotte 19:0740:5319:07
Team totalsLouisianaCharlotte
Total yards292137
Passing20 of 29, 159 yds17 of 30, 111 yds
Rushing49 for 133 yds15 for 26 yds
First downs216
Third down4 of 141 of 11
Fourth down2 of 20 of 2
Turnovers14
Penalties6 for 50 yds9 for 83 yds
Time of possession40:5319:07

Louisiana leaders

  • Passing D'Wayne' Winfield 19 of 26, 149 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Darrell Smith 10 for 43 yds; D'Wayne' Winfield 13 for 28 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Trenton Chaney 3 for 44 yds; Kristion Brooks 3 for 37 yds

Charlotte leaders

  • Passing Cole Gonzales 9 of 16, 68 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Henry Rutledge 3 for 14 yds; Jaylen White 1 for 8 yds
  • Receiving Jaden Barnes 5 for 45 yds; Jaylen Hampton 4 for 19 yds

No rain through the game

75° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 69°, with about 7 in 10 games between 60° and 79°.

September game-day temperatures at Jerry Richardson Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Charlotte favoredLouisiana favored0%Win chanceCharlotteRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Charlotte favoredLouisiana favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 0:24 left7:56 p.m.
Louisiana 10, Charlotte 7 · Charlotte 27% to win
no rain · 63°
Johnson 54-yd fumble return TD, cuts it to 10-7

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Concord airport, 5.6 miles away, and Charlotte / Douglas airport, 14 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Louisiana · 2-1

Rated 35th in our preseason ratings, 34th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 21-14 vs UAB #63 of 668

won by 7 as a 7-point favorite

Louisiana won 21-14 vs UAB. Chance to win started at 68%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

L 30-49 @ USCTop 25 #26 of 668

lost by 19 as a 30.5-point underdog

Louisiana lost 30-49 at USC. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 38-7 vs Lamar #143 of 668

won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite

Louisiana won 38-7 vs Lamar. Chance to win started at 92%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Charlotte · 0-3

Rated 166th in our preseason ratings, 163rd now.

Three straight losses.

L 21-26 @ App State #93 of 668

lost by 5 as a 16.5-point underdog

Charlotte lost 21-26 at App State. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 16%.

L 9-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #13 of 668

lost by 32 as a 44.5-point underdog

Charlotte lost 9-41 at Ole Miss. Chance to win started at under 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 41-43 vs The Citadel #210 of 668

lost by 2 as a 20.5-point favorite

Week by week

Charlotte

Wk 1: L 41-43 vs The Citadel▼2The CitadelWk 2: L 9-41 at Ole Miss▼32Ole MissWk 3: L 21-26 at App State▼5App State
  • Wk 1Lvs The Citadel41-43
  • Wk 2Lat Ole Miss9-41
  • Wk 3Lat App State21-26

Louisiana

Wk 1: W 38-7 vs Lamar▲31LamarWk 2: L 30-49 at USC▼19USCWk 3: W 21-14 vs UAB▲7UAB
  • Wk 1Wvs Lamar38-7
  • Wk 2Lat USC30-49
  • Wk 3Wvs UAB21-14

Power rating by week

Louisiana is rated 11.7 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

8-1-10Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3CharlotteLouisiana

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Charlotte’s rushing EPA against Louisiana, 99 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Charlotte’s explosive plays against Louisiana’s defense

    92 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Charlotte offense, 8th percentile · Louisiana defense, 100th

  2. Charlotte’s EPA/play against Louisiana’s defense

    89 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Charlotte offense, 3rd percentile · Louisiana defense, 92nd

  3. Charlotte’s rushing EPA against Louisiana’s defense

    99 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Charlotte offense, 0th percentile · Louisiana defense, 99th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

LouisianaCharlotte
EPA/play, offense
Louisiana · 53Charlotte · 3
EPA/play, defense
Louisiana · 92Charlotte · 8
Success rate, offense
Louisiana · 55Charlotte · 6
Success rate, defense
Louisiana · 55Charlotte · 3
Explosive-play rate, offense
Louisiana · 40Charlotte · 8
Explosive-play rate, defense
Louisiana · 100Charlotte · 37
Rush EPA, offense
Louisiana · 76Charlotte · 0
Rush EPA, defense
Louisiana · 99Charlotte · 8
Pass EPA, offense
Louisiana · 49Charlotte · 16
Pass EPA, defense
Louisiana · 50Charlotte · 11

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (90th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 13%
  • Line · 22%
  • Charlotte fans · 36th
  • Louisiana fans · 90th

Louisiana favored by 9.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Louisiana by 9.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 5 points toward Charlotte.

opened +14.5now +9.5

The total fell 3 points.

opened 52.5now 49.5

Spread: +14.5 → +9.5 · Total: 52.5 → 49.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 66° at kickoff.

Louisiana at Charlotte · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte

  • 66°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Jerry Richardson Stadium that day, a 2 pm or 3:30 pm kickoff would have scored 89, against 100 at 6 pm.

  • noon: 93, Comfortable
  • 12:45 pm: 91, Comfortable
  • 2 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 4 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 5 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 6 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Charlotte has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.9 points (±4.0), home against road — 6th percentile of FBS.

36% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (14-25 home, 12-37 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -8.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±6.1 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 744 miles to get here.

Where next