Memphis beats UT Martin 45-21
Memphis beat UT Martin 45-21. Share this game
We had Memphis favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Memphis an 85% chance, and the closing betting line (Memphis was a 33.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.
Memphis led by 10 after the first quarter and by 17 at the half.
Favored the whole way: Memphis never fell below 97%.
UT Martin never had better than a 2% chance.
Memphis 45-21 UT Martin
Memphis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UT Martin 21-45 MemphisUT Martin lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Memphis -33.5), at 98% for Memphis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Memphis scored on 7 of its 9 drives; UT Martin on 3 of its 10.
Memphis’s drives are teal, UT Martin’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Box score
Memphis 45, UT Martin 21
UT Martin covered +33.5 by 9.5. The total, 66, went over 58.5.
| Team totals | UT Martin | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 291 | 572 |
| Passing | 17 of 29, 177 yds | 28 of 35, 273 yds |
| Rushing | 28 for 114 yds | 40 for 299 yds |
| First downs | 14 | 28 |
| Third down | 7 of 13 | 9 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 8 for 50 yds | 3 for 15 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:46 | 31:14 |
UT Martin leaders
- Passing Tate Surber 17 of 29, 177 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Jaydon Peete 6 for 38 yds; Thomas Ansley 10 for 34 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Deuce Oliver 4 for 69 yds; Makhia Sherrard 4 for 53 yds, 1 TD
Memphis leaders
- Passing Marcus Stokes 26 of 32, 258 yds, 4 TD
- Rushing Jordan Thompson 6 for 110 yds, 1 TD; Dallan Hayden 11 for 85 yds
- Receiving Jermane Hayes 8 for 57 yds; Jemyri Davis 3 for 45 yds
No rain and calm
96° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 12
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 77 other games played at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 78°, with about 7 in 10 games between 70° and 86°.
September game-day temperatures at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Memphis International Airport, 4.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
UT Martin · 1-2
Rated 148th in our preseason ratings, 171st now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 42-7 vs Chicago State #255 of 668
won by 35 as a 45.5-point favorite
L 24-36 vs Central Arkansas #177 of 668
lost by 12 as a 3-point favorite
Last three games
Memphis · 2-1
Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 91st now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 6-point win over UNLV as a 4.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Memphis
- Wk 1Wat UNLV27-21
- Wk 1Wvs Arkansas State42-24
- Wk 2Lat Boise State20-38
UT Martin
- Wk 1Lvs Central Arkansas24-36
- Wk 1Wvs Chicago State42-7
- Wk 2Lat West Virginia7-52
Power rating by week
Memphis is rated 5.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Memphis leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2009 · Memphis won the last meeting
- 2013Memphis 21-6
- 2012UT Martin 20-17
- 2009Memphis 41-14
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Memphis’s chances here.
Memphis favored by 33.5 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go
Memphis by 33.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward UT Martin.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −34.5 → −33.5 · Total: 57.5 → 58.5
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 92° at kickoff.
UT Martin at Memphis · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis
- 92°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 69weather score, Rough
- 3rdbest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the third best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 79, against 69 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 47, Harsh
- 11:45 am: 44, Harsh
- 1 pm: 43, Harsh
- 2:30 pm: 43, Harsh
- 3:30 pm: 46, Harsh
- 6 pm: 69, Rough (this game)
- 6:30 pm: 77, Mixed
- 7 pm: 79, Mixed
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Memphis is worth +3.2 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 31st percentile.
81% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-9 home, 24-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 105 miles to get here.