South Florida beats Army 28-24
Team pages: South Florida · Army
South Florida beat Army 28-24 after its win chance fell to 3%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 3% or less in about 1 of every 65 games since 2018.
We had Army favored. South Florida won.
Top comment in the game thread
That's a really bad drop right there
How it swung
The turning point: Van Buren 38-yd TD pass to Porter, South Florida goes ahead 28-24 (Q4, 0:19). South Florida went from 10% to 86% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Florida a 25% chance, and the closing betting line (South Florida was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.
South Florida 28-24 Army
South Florida wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Army 24-28 South FloridaArmy lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:05Jones 27-yd field goal, Army goes ahead 17-14South Florida 48% → 27% (−21)
- 2Q4 0:194th and 6Van Buren 38-yd TD pass to Porter, South Florida goes ahead 28-24South Florida 10% → 86% (+76)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:05Jones 27-yd field goal, Army goes ahead 17-14Army 52% → 73% (+21)
- 2Q4 0:194th and 6Van Buren 38-yd TD pass to Porter, South Florida goes ahead 28-24Army 90% → 14% (−76)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 10:17Fans criticize Rodgers for dropping Van Buren's pass after two straight incompletionsQuoted at the top of the page.
- Q2 0:19Hellums throws touchdown pass to Nwawuihe as Army fans celebrate the unexpected passing success
Hellums can throw! Look what a full offseason did
r/CFB game thread - Q3 8:18Army's Anderson flagged for unnecessary roughness on Nwawuihe's run
Wierd ass penalty. Because that is very undisciplined for west point
r/CFB game thread - Q4 5:45Army runs for a touchdown to take a 24-14 lead with 5:45 left
NOT A TD (I need a Cale TD)
r/CFB game thread - Q4 3:13Army fans rip the decision to attempt an onside kick with 3:13 left
Coaches will blame execution instead of realizing they set up the players to fail.
r/CFB game threadHey stop rooting for us I don’t like it
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Army -3), at 37% for South Florida (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show South Florida’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 11:00Van Buren 7-yd TD pass to RodgersSouth Florida goes ahead 7-0Q1, 11:00 · South Florida 7, Army 0▲14%South Florida’s chance to win, 44% to 58%▲14%South Florida’s chance to win, 44% to 58%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 11:47Hellums 24-yd TD pass to Mundellties it 7-7Q2, 11:47 · South Florida 7, Army 7▼11%South Florida’s chance to win, 52% to 41%▼11%South Florida’s chance to win, 52% to 41%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 0:13Hellums 4-yd TD pass to NwawuiheArmy goes ahead 14-7Q2, 0:13 · South Florida 7, Army 14▼8%South Florida’s chance to win, 33% to 25%▼8%South Florida’s chance to win, 33% to 25%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 8:59Van Buren 18-yd TD runties it 14-14Q3, 8:59 · South Florida 14, Army 1414-14score after the play14-14score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 3:13Van Buren 24-yd TD runcuts it to 24-21Q4, 3:13 · South Florida 21, Army 24▲6%South Florida’s chance to win, 5% to 11%▲6%South Florida’s chance to win, 5% to 11%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 1:53Hellums sacked for a 6-yd lossQ4, 1:53 · South Florida 21, Army 2421-24score after the play21-24score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 0:19Van Buren 38-yd TD pass to PorterSouth Florida goes ahead 28-24Q4, 0:19 · South Florida 28, Army 24▲76%South Florida’s chance to win, 10% to 86%▲76%South Florida’s chance to win, 10% to 86%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 0:16Hellums 14-yd pass to MundellfumbledQ4, 0:16 · South Florida 28, Army 24▲13%South Florida’s chance to win, 86% to 99%▲13%South Florida’s chance to win, 86% to 99%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
Every drive
South Florida scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Army on 4 of its 9.
South Florida’s drives are teal, Army’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Army’s side
Army’s best moment: Jones 27-yd field goal, Army goes ahead 17-14 (Q4 14:05). It lifted Army’s win chance by 21 points.
How Army fans took it: “Offense looked great. Defense looked bad. It seems like only once in a generation we have a quality offense and defense and we used that up on our 2024…” r/CFB game thread
“I think that play just took 5 years off my life.”
When fans got loud
Loud
The loudest stretch was the finish.
The jump was loud; the crowd was steady.
The winner fell to 3%.
What it cost
South Florida’s chance to make the playoff rose from 5% to 7%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
South Florida 28, Army 24
South Florida covered +3 by 7. The total, 52, went over 45.5.
| Team totals | South Florida | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 369 | 347 |
| Passing | 19 of 30, 239 yds | 10 of 11, 128 yds |
| Rushing | 25 for 130 yds | 51 for 219 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 21 |
| Third down | 6 of 11 | 4 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 3 for 15 yds | 4 for 45 yds |
| Time of possession | 24:14 | 35:46 |
South Florida leaders
- Passing Michael Van Buren Jr. 19 of 30, 239 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Michael Van Buren Jr. 5 for 45 yds, 2 TD; Jason Collins Jr. 9 for 40 yds
- Receiving Joshua Porter 3 for 67 yds, 1 TD; Bryson Rodgers 6 for 64 yds, 1 TD
Army leaders
- Passing Cale Hellums 9 of 10, 91 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Godspower Nwawuihe 20 for 94 yds, 1 TD; Cale Hellums 18 for 55 yds
- Receiving Zach Mundell 3 for 47 yds, 1 TD; Tobi Olawole 1 for 37 yds
No rain through the game
73° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Michie Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Newburgh/stewart airport, 11 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
South Florida · 9-4
Rated 64th in our preseason ratings, 64th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 10-24 vs Old Dominion #31 of 667
lost by 14 as a 4-point favorite
W 52-3 vs Rice #199 of 667
won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 48-18 @ UAB #183 of 667
won by 30 as a 22.5-point favorite
L 38-41 @ NavyTop 25 #91 of 667
lost by 3 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 55-23 vs UTSA #70 of 667
won by 32 as a 13.5-point favorite
L 31-34 @ MemphisTop 25 #38 of 667
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 48-13 vs Florida Atlantic #98 of 667
won by 35 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 63-36 @ North TexasTop 25 #83 of 667
won by 27 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 54-26 vs Charlotte #190 of 667
won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 63-14 vs South Carolina State #171 of 667
won by 49 as a 35.5-point favorite
L 12-49 @ MiamiTop 25 #10 of 667
lost by 37 as a 17.5-point underdog
W 18-16 @ FloridaTop 25 #14 of 667
won by 2 as an 18.5-point underdog
W 34-7 vs Boise StateTop 25 #57 of 667
won by 27 as a 5.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Army · 7-6
Rated 39th in our preseason ratings, 39th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over UTSA as an 8.5-point underdog.
W 41-16 vs UConn #110 of 667
won by 25 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 16-17 @ NavyTop 25 #83 of 667
lost by 1 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 27-24 @ UTSA #59 of 667
won by 3 as an 8.5-point underdog
L 25-26 vs Tulsa #138 of 667
lost by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 14-13 vs Temple #141 of 667
won by 1 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 20-17 @ Air Force #153 of 667
won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 17-24 @ TulaneTop 25 #60 of 667
lost by 7 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 24-7 vs Charlotte #198 of 667
won by 17 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 31-13 @ UAB #134 of 667
won by 18 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 6-28 @ East Carolina #70 of 667
lost by 22 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 38-45 vs North TexasTop 25 #78 of 667
lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 24-21 @ Kansas StateTop 25 #49 of 667
won by 3 as a 16.5-point underdog
L 27-30 vs Tarleton State #104 of 667
lost by 3 as a 14.5-point favorite
Week by week
Army
- Wk 1Wvs Bryant59-3
South Florida
- Wk 1Wvs Florida International19-9
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Army’s explosive plays against South Florida, 92 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Army’s explosive plays against South Florida’s defense
Army offense, 5th percentile · South Florida defense, 97th
South Florida’s rushing EPA against Army’s defense
South Florida offense, 72nd percentile · Army defense, 11th
Army’s success rate against South Florida’s defense
Army offense, 98th percentile · South Florida defense, 45th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
The series is tied 1-1
2 meetings since 2003 · Army won the last meeting
- 2004Army 42-35
- 2003South Florida 28-0
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Army fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (36th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 75%
- Line · 60%
- Army fans · 36th
- South Florida fans · 31st
Army favored by 3 · Total 45.5
How games like this usually go
Army by 3, on the usual path until 0:16 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Army.
The total fell 7 points.
Spread: −1.5 → −3 · Total: 52.5 → 45.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm. Feels like 77° at kickoff.
South Florida at Army · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Michie Stadium, West Point
- 77°feels like at kickoff
- 91weather score, Comfortable
- Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Michie Stadium that day, a 6 pm, 7 pm or 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 91 at noon.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- noon: 91, Comfortable (this game)
- 1 pm: 89, Mixed
- 2 pm: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Army is worth +4.5 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 58th percentile.
69% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (27-12 home, 17-20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.0 at home vs. away over 88 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,045 miles to get here.