South Florida at Army
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
South Florida · 9-4
Picked #65 in the preseason · now #77.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 10–24 vs Old Dominion #28 of 668
lost by 14 as a 4-point favorite
W 52–3 vs Rice #188 of 668
won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 48–18 @ UAB #181 of 668
won by 30 as a 22.5-point favorite
L 38–41 @ NavyTop 25 #58 of 668
lost by 3 as a 8.5-point favorite
W 55–23 vs UTSA #52 of 668
won by 32 as a 14-point favorite
L 31–34 @ MemphisTop 25 #47 of 668
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 48–13 vs Florida Atlantic #129 of 668
won by 35 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 63–36 @ North TexasTop 25 #90 of 668
won by 27 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 54–26 vs Charlotte #235 of 668
won by 28 as a 28-point favorite
W 63–14 vs South Carolina State #165 of 668
won by 49 as a 35.5-point favorite
L 12–49 @ MiamiTop 25 #9 of 668
lost by 37 as a 17.5-point underdog
W 18–16 @ FloridaTop 25 #16 of 668
won by 2 as a 18.5-point underdog
W 34–7 vs Boise StateTop 25 #18 of 668
won by 27 as a 4.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Army · 7-6
Picked #38 in the preseason · now #48.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over UTSA as a 8.5-point underdog.
W 41–16 vs UConn #98 of 668
won by 25 as a 8.5-point favorite
L 16–17 @ NavyTop 25 #53 of 668
lost by 1 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 27–24 @ UTSA #46 of 668
won by 3 as a 8.5-point underdog
L 25–26 vs Tulsa #118 of 668
lost by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 14–13 vs Temple #113 of 668
won by 1 as a 7-point favorite
W 20–17 @ Air Force #113 of 668
won by 3 as a 1-point favorite
L 17–24 @ TulaneTop 25 #69 of 668
lost by 7 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 24–7 vs Charlotte #225 of 668
won by 17 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 31–13 @ UAB #130 of 668
won by 18 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 6–28 @ East Carolina #59 of 668
lost by 22 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 38–45 vs North TexasTop 25 #93 of 668
lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 24–21 @ Kansas StateTop 25 #30 of 668
won by 3 as a 16.5-point underdog
L 27–30 vs Tarleton State #101 of 668
lost by 3 as a 14-point favorite
What’s at stake
South Florida
- South Florida sits at 6% to make the CFP field — 7% with a win here, 2% with a loss.
- South Florida is the American Athletic program whose Charlie Strong tenure + 2024 7-6 Alex Golesh rebuild + Big East historical legacy define what Tampa Bay football survival looks like.
Army
- Army hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2023.
The series
South Florida leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2003 · South Florida won the last meeting
- 2026South Florida 28–24
- 2004Army 42–35
- 2003South Florida 28–0
Best players
South Florida
- Ayden Jackson (DB) · 16 tackles
- Rodney Hill (LB) · 12 tackles
- Sam Robinson (LB) · 12 tackles
Army
- Elijah Walton (LB) · 15 tackles
- Jaquavious Moss (LB) · 13 tackles
- Zach Mundell (WR) · 150 rushing yards
The line, and the room
South Florida fans are feeling better about their season (36th percentile) than Army fans are (7th) — even with Army favored here.
- Model · 75%
- Market · 60%
- Army fans · 7th
- South Florida fans · 36th
Home −3 · O/U 45.5
Conditions
74°F · 0 mph wind · Cloudy
Army is worth +4.3 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 55th percentile.
68% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (25–12 home, 16–19 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.4 at home vs. away over 64 games — inside the ±7.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,045 miles to get here.
South Florida 28 – Army 24
Missed — picked Army, South Florida won.
Recent games
Army
- Wk 1Wvs Bryant59-3
South Florida
- Wk 1Wvs Florida International19-9
Trajectory
Conference standings
- Army#130-1
- South Florida#21-0
The pregame pick missed: South Florida beat Army 28-24.