Jackson Arnold

#11 · QB · Sr. · UNLV6′1″ · 220 lb · Denton, TX · Denton Guyer

ZPR4281st of 119 QBsLast gameW 31–24vs Northern Illinois · Oct 31
Nextvs WyomingSat Nov 7 · 10:30 pm ET

Graded Solid or better in each of the last two games.

Last game: W 31-24 vs Northern Illinois, Oct 31 · 20 of 30 for 269 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions · 13 carries for 86 yards. Started all eight of UNLV’s games.

UNLV’s next game: vs Wyoming, Sat Nov 7, 10:30 p.m. ET · CBS Sports Network

UNLV is 5-3 in the eight games played. A dual-threat quarterback who throws deeper than most.

Strongest: a touchdown on 6.7% of throws, tied for 31st best of 158 starters.

Passing yards

1,660

128 of 212, 60%

TD–INT

13–4

7.8 per throw

NCAA rating

142.6

55th of 119

ZPR

42

81st of 119

How ZPR works

Up and down: great in 1, shaky or worse in 4.

Best by our grade: at Akron. Lowest: California, sacked 3 times. Best play: Run for 55 yards, touchdown, against California, Q2 11:18. Win chance 58% to 79%.

Tap a game for its plays

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Season

Fades after halftime

How to read this

Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for the quarterback, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game; on games with a lot of running it grades the passing only. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming the quarterback. Dashed outlines on the Season row are last season’s average. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of the quarterback’s plays, up helped the team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.

The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as the season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.

Style of play

Dual-threat

Also: deep thrower

Why this word
Runs11.6 a gameRarelyA lot
Throws10.3 yards past the lineShortDeep
Completes60%FewerMore
Takes sacks8% of dropbacksRarelyOften

The dot is this quarterback, among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.

Throws deeper than most and runs a lot. 11.6 carries a game. Closest matches: Navarro ’25, Pribula, Brown ’25, Raynor.

Where the throws go

Behind the line11%typical 17%
Short45%typical 47%
Middle28%typical 22%
Deep16%typical 14%

Runs 11.6 times a game; 95% of starters run less.

Closest in style

Navarro ’25PribulaBrown ’25RaynorThis QB

Nearer the middle means more alike.

  • Navarro ’25 Ohio 2025 · Dual-threat
    2,375 yards, 14 TD, 11 INT. Both rarely throw behind the line and throw deep.
  • Pribula Virginia · Mobile passer
    1,587 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT so far. Both score a lot and take sacks.
  • Brown ’25 South Florida 2025 · Dual-threat
    3,158 yards, 28 TD, 7 INT. Both score a lot and throw deep.
  • Raynor Iowa State · Mobile passer
    1,416 yards, 10 TD, 5 INT so far. Both rarely throw behind the line and score a lot.

Compared with the 158 FBS starters this season for throws and running, and with 219 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.

This week

  • RecordUNLV is 5-3.
  • What fans say

    Over the last few games, UNLV fans have been down on Arnold.

    “Arnold could have run for a first there. 😑”

    From r/CFB game thread. Read by AI.

What’s being said

4 stories in the last 30 days, from 12 outlets.

Oct 6: 1Oct 20: 1Nov 1: 2W 13-7 vs North Dakota StateWL 31-41 at Air ForceLW 31-24 vs Northern IllinoisWOct 6Nov 4Most in a day: 2
Oct 6: 1Oct 20: 1Nov 1: 2W 13-7 vs North Dakota StateWL 31-41 at Air ForceLW 31-24 vs Northern IllinoisWOct 6Nov 4Most in a day: 2
Stories per day. W and L: the team’s results.

Jackson Arnold throws 3 TD passes, UNLV hands Northern Illinois its 10th straight loss, 31-24

Bozeman Daily Chronicle +7 Nov 1

All 34 stories this season

Worth knowing

  • Jackson Arnold has 494 rushing yards, 8th among FBS quarterbacks.
  • Jackson Arnold was the No. 8 recruit in the country in the 2023 class.

His most important play this season

  1. Q4, 9:31 · UNLV down 1, takes the leadJackson Arnold finds Keyan Burnett for a 10-yard touchdownCalifornia at UNLV, week 5Q4, 9:31 · UNLV 32, California 25Go-ahead touchdown for UNLV in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for UNLV in the fourth quarterKeyan Burnett 10 yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Jackson Arnold Run for Two-Point Conversion)Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football

All 9 of his plays on video

The story

As of

Arnold's Auburn tape in 2025 is a study in contradictions. His 94th-percentile interception rate says he's disciplined — only nine QBs in the country were more careful with the football on a per-attempt basis. His 94th-percentile EPA per carry says he punishes defenses with his legs, finishing runs (81st-percentile rushing TD rate) and occasionally breaking one (75th-percentile explosive run rate). Those are legitimately NFL-caliber rushing numbers for a quarterback.

Read the rest of the story

The passing game is a different reel. A 16th-percentile EPA per dropback, an 11th-percentile explosive pass rate, and a 2nd-percentile sack rate — meaning he was getting sacked on over 12% of dropbacks, dead last in the country — paint a picture of a passer who hasn't found comfort in a pro-style pocket. The Auburn offensive system wasn't kind to him, but the numbers were hard enough that he lost the starting job.

Now he lands at UNLV under Dan Mullen, who has one of the better track records in the sport of building mobile quarterbacks into complete starters. If Mullen can simplify Arnold's reads, widen the run-pass option menu, and rebuild his pocket confidence in a lighter Mountain West schedule, 2026 could be the season Arnold finally matches his recruiting pedigree. The talent is there. The question is whether the right system has finally found him.

First evidence, 2026: in the opener against Memphis, the profile inverted. The arm carried the offense — 25-of-37 for 291 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, plus a rushing score, every point UNLV put on the board — while the ground game was bottled at 2.6 a carry on 21 attempts. One game is one game, and the Rebels lost it 27-21 by giving up the last thirteen points.

The next two weeks argued both sides of the profile again. At Hawai'i, the passing reverted to modest (8-of-18, 116 yards, no touchdowns) but the legs carried the offense to a 21-6 win — 89 yards and two rushing touchdowns on 16 carries, UNLV's first win of the season. Then North Texas: 18-of-27 for 194 yards but no touchdowns through the air, and the legs vanished, 14 carries for -11 yards behind a line that couldn't hold up. A 44-6 loss, the widest margin of Mullen's UNLV tenure. Three games in, Arnold has carried the offense with his arm (Memphis), carried it with his legs (Hawai'i), and been overwhelmed on both fronts at once (North Texas) — the swings are the story now as much as the ceiling is.

Sources