Next game: at Army
Air Force’s best edge on Army is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Air Force offense against Army defense
Army offense against Air Force defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 95 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.19 EPA/play | 9 | 4 | 19 / 38 | 50 | 296 | 7.8 | 1 | 4 | 103.1 | 46 | 55.0 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| +0.40 EPA/play | 5 | 6 | 8 / 14 | 57.1 | 92 | 6.6 | 2 | 0 | 159.5 | — | 81.8 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.02 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 106 | 446 | 4.2 | 3 | 33 | 6.6 | 4.7 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 106 carries in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Owen Allen's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.26 EPA/play | 44 | 8 | 62 | 394 | 6.4 | 2 | 50 | 17.5 | 17.5 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 62 carries and 3 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Conti hits the crease and outruns the angle. Teu is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry6.7 89th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share4.6% bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Rocco Conti's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.08 EPA/play | 28 | 8 | 50 | 263 | 5.3 | 1 | 25 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 50 carries and 1 catch in 8 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB LaDue does a little of everything without one standout trait. Teu is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 42th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share2.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Gage LaDue's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Move TE · +0.19 EPA/play | 80 | 5 | 8 | 135 | 16.9 | 0 | 34 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 29 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.9 95th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 13th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Simon Kibbee's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.64 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 7 | 110 | 15.7 | 2 | 35 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.83 EPA/play | 10 | 4 | 5 | 89 | 17.8 | 1 | 29 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jayden Oquendo's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 48 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Antonio Menard's full player page | |||||||
| 95 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2 | |
| 93 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 8 | 80 | 38 | 42 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 80 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume80 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.4% bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Blake Fletcher's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 8 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 46 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume46 68th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate2.2% bottom 41th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dallas Daley's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 45 | 8 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 77th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate10.0% 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaylin Reese's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 30 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaac Hubert's full player page | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 36 | 8 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 33 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.1% 71th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Max Mustell's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 2 | 8 | 29 | 6 #43 FBS | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 29 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.7% 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Korey Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 26 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.2% bottom 32th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Alexander Perez's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 5 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.6% 78th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Roger Jones Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 90 | 8 | 9/10 | 90 | 25/26 | 52 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 7 | 18 | 861 | 47.8 | 68 | 8 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Biggest plays from Air Force’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Air Force’s games this season, whoever made them.
Overtime, 0:00 · Air Force down 3, takes the leadRocco Conti runs 7 yards for a touchdownAir Force at Nevada, week 4Overtime, 0:00 · Air Force 36, Nevada 33Overtime touchdown for Air ForceOvertime touchdown for Air ForceR.Conti rush left for 7 yards gain to the Nevada00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN▶Watch from this play
Q4, 1:49 · Nevada down 7, ties itHerschel Turner runs 57 yards for a touchdownAir Force at Nevada, week 4Q4, 1:49 · Nevada 27, Air Force 271:49Game-tying touchdown for Nevada with 1:49 left1:49Game-tying touchdown for Nevada with 1:49 leftGame-tying touchdown for Nevada with 1:49 leftH.Turner rush middle for 57 yards gain to the AF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q2, 14:08 · North Dakota State up 7Nathan Hayes runs 17 yards for a touchdownNorth Dakota State at Air Force, week 2Q2, 14:08 · North Dakota State 14, Air Force 0▼18%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 79% to 61%▼18%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 79% to 61%N.Hayes rush middle for 17 yards gain to the AF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 0:17 · Air Force tiedBryson Snelling intercepts Liam SzarkaAir Force at Nevada, week 4Q4, 0:17 · Air Force 27, Nevada 27Air Force turned it over with 0:17 left, tiedAir Force turned it over with 0:17 left, tiedL.Szarka pass intercepted by B.Snelling at Nevada47, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 1:48 · Air Force down 14Blake Fletcher takes an interception 95 yards for a pick-sixNorth Dakota State at Air Force, week 2Q2, 1:48 · Air Force 13, North Dakota State 2195Pick-six95Pick-sixPick-sixN.Hayes pass intercepted by B.Fletcher at AF05 B.Fletcher return 95 yards to the NDSU00 touchdown Timeout North Dakota State, kick no good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 4:43 · Nevada down 3, takes the leadAJ Bianco runs 9 yards for a touchdownAir Force at Nevada, week 4Q3, 4:43 · Nevada 17, Air Force 13Go-ahead score for Nevada in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Nevada in the third quarterA.Bianco rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Air Force lost 2 of 8 games, none after a real lead; the closest win was at Nevada, down to 19%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Air Force during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Air Force
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Air ForceBlake Fletcher leads Air Force with 80 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+6 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Air Force fields a strong run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a solid defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Air Force reads strongest in rushing EPA (top 2%) and red-zone finish (top 4%); the crux lives in passing EPA, where Air Force sits at the 0th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Air Force is worth +2.7 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile of 133 programs
64% at home, 50% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (27-15 home, 22-22 away). Interval ±3.3.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Air Force has beaten the number by +2.3 more at home than away over 94 games. That is inside the ±5.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Falcon Stadium seats 46,692 and has averaged 57% full (26,446, 29 games reported). Visitors cover a median 801 miles to get here (2018-present). 8% of the 2026 roster (11 of 137 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 50 home games since 2018. No national trip rank shown: the ranked field is FBS venues only and leaves out the service academies and venues with too few measured games. Service-academy rosters are filled by congressional nomination rather than ordinary recruiting and run well past normal FBS size — read the local share against that.
More in this tab
How they play
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Owen Allen and Rocco Conti split the carries (106/163 vs 57/163) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Rocco Conti produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Air Force actually scores
76th percentile quality, 3rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Air Force’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 70th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 57th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Air Force hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
98th percentile success on standard downs, 23rd on passing downs — a 75-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Air Force by half
1st-half offense ranks 73rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 76th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Air Force’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.22; 76th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.40 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Air Force’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Air Force’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.0% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 136-play sample) — mid-pack, 58 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Takeaways
Converting 15% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
5 interceptions of 33 disrupted passes (28 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 41 penalties committed vs. 35 drawn on opponents, a 82-yard deficit.
369 penalty yards committed vs. 287 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Air Force
Most similar programs · Air ForceReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, CO · 6,643 ft above sea level
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 42°, between 27° and 54° in about 7 in 10 games (26 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 57°, and 8 in 10 ran between 36° and 76° (47 of 52 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.