The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jay Sawvel

Followed Craig Bohl. Jay Sawvel held Wyoming at Regional Program III for 3 seasons.

7–17
2024–now · 1 stint
Wyoming
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In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerWYOMINGRegional Programthe building-block levelWyoming, 2024: 3-9, Regional Program III2024Wyoming, 2025: 4-8, Regional Program III2025Wyoming, 2026: in progress, Regional Program III2026-3.1One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Wyoming, 3 seasons (active)
−3.1
Regional Program III → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Wyoming2024–2026▼ 3.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Wyoming9.9pt#136 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–2 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
0–2
0.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
2–4
33.3% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$3,691,667 (est.)
bigger than 36% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Colorado State0–20%
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0–1 0.0%
National Program
0–3 0.0%
Regional Program
4–11 26.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.41
#282 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.15
#72 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2024–now
Wyomingcaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program III
Jay Sawvel held Wyoming at Regional Program III for 3 seasons.

16th-best Wyoming tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-31.2 pts
#199 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+23.1 pts
#21 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Craig Bohl (2014–2023).

Season202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record3–94–80–0
Postseason———
Recruiting rank#102#89#114
Style — pass rate
Pass rate43.149.739.8
Coordinators
OCJay JohnsonJay JohnsonChristian Taylor
DCAaron BohlAaron BohlAaron Bohl
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense6531
Defense447737
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%41.747.942.3
Red-zone pass%35.050.033.3
4th-down go%opp. territory39.032.3—
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
39
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
51
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-12
#93 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 224 lbs
across 21 of 39 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.4 lbs
#55 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#151 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: CA (4), OH (2), KS (2), FL (2), VA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
50.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
52.8
position-weighted
Net
-2.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tyler Hughes (QB) from William & Mary
Biggest loss: Kaden Anderson (QB) to Tarleton State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Jay Johnson → Christian Taylor · 2026
5th pct31st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.9% → 42.3% (-5.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 23% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Running back
208 lbs
5′11″ avg · #365 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
190 lbs
6′1″ avg · #526 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
249 lbs
6′5″ avg · #228 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
301 lbs
6′4″ avg · #677 of 779 · less than most
D-line
271 lbs
6′2″ avg · #636 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
227 lbs
6′2″ avg · #432 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
184 lbs
5′11″ avg · #655 of 771 · less than most
Safety
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #192 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Safety via the portal
70%
#22 of 218 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
80%
#146 of 188 stints
Grows Quarterback from high school
75%
#164 of 206 stints

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Emmanuel Pregnon (2025)

AI Narratives — “Wyoming — stat check”.

7–17
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.