Jay Sawvel

Head coach · Wyoming
3rd season · since 2024

At Wyoming12-20since 2024 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool6% · 48th of 132 jobsLast gameW 28-14vs Air Force · Oct 24Nextat UNLVSat Nov 7 · 10:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, won 3 straight, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 28-14 vs. Air Force Fri Oct 23
  • This season5-3 won 3 straight
  • Hot seat6% 48th of 132
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextat UNLV Sat Nov 7
  • Stature105th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 7%.

at UNLV, Sat Nov 7, 10:30 pm ET CBS Sports Network · UNLV is 5-3 · Sawvel vs. Dan Mullen: 0-1 · Wyoming’s chance to win: 39% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Wyoming wins: 4%, 61st of 132Now: 6%If Wyoming loses: 7%, 45th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Wyoming wins: 4%, 61st of 132
  • Now: 6%
  • If Wyoming loses: 7%, 45th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

6% chance he’s out after the season · 48th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow12% had they lost12% had they lostLoss 7%Win 4%13%16%16%21%14%18%14%11%6%Pre1L at Colorado StateL2W vs. Northern ColoradoW3L at Central MichiganL4W vs. Hawai'iW5L at North Dakota StateL6W at San José StateW7W vs. Northern IllinoisW8W vs. Air ForceW9Chance to win at UNLV39%10Chance to win at UTEP83%11Chance to win vs. New Mexico23%12Chance to win vs. UConn42%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow12% had they lost12% had they lostLoss 7%Win 4%13%6%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 5-713%
  2. 6-68%
  3. 7-54%
  4. 8-42%
  5. 9-31%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 84th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 9%, 51st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 9.5%, 43rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 8%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 9.5%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 12%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 12%, 33rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 12%, 33rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 12%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 21%, 25th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 14%, 35th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 14%, 34th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 11%, 41st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 6%, 48th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 3▲ 7-17 over his previous two seasons here

Hottest: 2026, week 3 (21%, 25th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 7-17 over his previous two seasons here

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    7-17 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$3,691,667 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.4× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 7%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

One headline named him in the last 7 days

85th of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Oct 24–Nov 4

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 83rd of 138 per play. Defense: 104th.

Offense, per play83rdOffense, big plays128thDefense, per play104thRun defense133rdWorstBest
Offense, per play83rd of 138Offense, big plays128th of 138Defense, per play104th of 138Run defense133rd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Wyoming. The other two rows are where Wyoming stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at UNLV (5-3)CBS Sports Network39%
  2. Sat Nov 14at UTEP (1-7)83%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. New Mexico (7-1)FS123%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. UConn (4-4)42%

Percent: Wyoming’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Wyoming stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

95th102nd108thPreseason98thColorado State L 13-35Colorado State L 13-35L 13-35Colorado State100thNorthern Colorado W 21-13Northern Colorado W 21-13W 21-13Northern Colo…102ndCentral Michigan L 10-24Central Michigan L 10-24L 10-24Central Michi…102ndHawai'i W 27-10Hawai'i W 27-10W 27-10Hawai'i102ndNorth Dakota State L 0-28North Dakota State L 0-28L 0-28North Dakota …103rdSan José State W 16-13San José State W 16-13W 16-13San José State105thNorthern Illinois W 41-23Northern Illinois W 41-23W 41-23Northern Illi…105thAir Force W 28-14Air Force W 28-14W 28-14Air Force105thBye105th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25W 28-14 vs. Air Force0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 41-23 vs. Northern Illinois3 headlines · 64th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11W 16-13 at San José State3 headlines · 63rd of 138Taylor: Jay Sawvel, Wyoming football at a crossroads going into Week 6 Wyoming Tribune Eagle
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 0-28 at North Dakota State0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 27-10 vs. Hawai'i0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled56th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    7-17 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Higher
    His 3rd season at Wyoming
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 5-3, outscored by 0.5 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.