Next game: vs Boise State
Colorado State’s best edge on Boise State is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Colorado State offense against Boise State defense
Boise State offense against Colorado State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.37 EPA/play | 8 | 5 | 90 / 134 | 67.2 | 1138 | 8.5 | 14 #32 FBS | 2 | 170.0 | 64 | 68.0 | 9.5 | 2.2 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. This week's matchup — QB Hejny extends plays on the move until something opens up. Eshelman is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage18.3% bottom 37th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry6.9 98th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hauss Hejny's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.42 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 89 / 143 | 62.2 | 943 | 6.6 | 5 | 2 | 126.4 | 60 | 44.8 | 6.5 | 1.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. This week's matchup — QB Farrar operates within the system without forcing anything. Eshelman is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.0 bottom 25th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage8.9% bottom 10th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ksaan Farrar's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.27 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 52 | 454 | 8.7 | 3 | 80 | 21.2 | 17.3 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 52 carries and 16 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Brown wins in space out of the backfield. Vorhees is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Receiving share23.5% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry8.2 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Brown's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.26 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 104 | 449 | 4.3 | 9 #16 FBS | 30 | 13.1 | 11.2 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 104 carries and 9 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Robinson does a little of everything without one standout trait. Vorhees is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry4.7 bottom 28th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate8.7% 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Durell Robinson's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.69 EPA/play | — | 6 | 29 | 425 | 14.7 | 4 #70 FBS | 57 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 29 catches and 1 carry in 6 games. More catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Reginald Vick Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 15 | 8 | 28 | 374 | 13.4 | 4 #70 FBS | 74 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 28 catches, 2 pass attempts and 2 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Smith moves the chains on third down. Clemons is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception13.6 51th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate14.3% 79th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Terrence Smith's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.68 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 26 | 344 | 13.2 | 2 | 49 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jackson Harper's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.81 EPA/play | 10 | 6 | 19 | 257 | 13.5 | 2 | 57 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Maher moves the chains on third down. Clemons is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception14.7 64th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 85th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tommy Maher's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · -0.02 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 16 | 111 | 6.9 | 0 | 32 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 16 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Vereen shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Leckner is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception8.7 bottom 27th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.0 bottom 7th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javonte Vereen's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.09 EPA/play | 30 | 4 | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 | 38 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.27 EPA/play | 20 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 | 26 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +1.40 EPA/play | 88 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 4 #70 FBS | 21 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.21 EPA/play | 5 | — | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 | 14 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 93 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 32 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Robby Harrison's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 77 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 26 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.6% bottom 32th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jack Moran's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | — | 22 | 9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.4% bottom 37th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jackson Murray's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mukendi Wa-Kalonji's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 10 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 1.5 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.1% bottom 36th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Brandon Kelly's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View TaVeon Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| 9 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | |
| 55 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 96 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 94 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 8 | 76 | 24 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 76 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume76 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.6% bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Oumar Diomande's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 23 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Antarron Turner's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 23 | 7 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaseim Mitchell's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 28 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume22 bottom 19th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marc Pretto's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 56 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.6% 77th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume22 bottom 19th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kenyon Agurs's full player page | |||||||||
| 11 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 15 | 8 | 61 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
Box safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — 61 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume61 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View TreShawn Moore's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 5 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 29 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume29 81th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View D'Angelo Hagans Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 17 | 8 | 27 | 3 | 3 #16 FBS | 1.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% bottom 41th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View C.J. Blocker's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 6 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Elijah Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.0% bottom 31th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View D'Mon Brinson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jordan Lessard's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 13 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.8% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Elijah Mc-Cantos's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 6 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Caleb Presley's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | — | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 7 | 4/5 | 80 | 32/32 | 44 | 51 | |
| 35 | — | 5/7 | 71.4 | 8/9 | 23 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 39 | 7 | 26 | 1122 | 43.2 | 56 | 5 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.27 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 5 | 230 | 46 | 1 | 94 |
| 24 | 2 | 5 | 126 | 25.2 | 0 | 46 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.68 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 7 | 90 | 12.9 | 0 | 30 |
Biggest plays from Colorado State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Colorado State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 14:13 · Colorado State tiedHauss Hejny finds Cedric Ross for a 68-yard touchdownSouthern Utah at Colorado State, week 2Q1, 14:13 · Colorado State 7, Southern Utah 06868-yard touchdown pass6868-yard touchdown pass68-yard touchdown passH.Hejny pass complete short middle to C.Ross caught at CSU28, for 68 yards to the SUU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q1, 0:04 · Colorado State up 10Parker Vance intercepts Hauss HejnySouthern Utah at Colorado State, week 2Q1, 0:04 · Colorado State 17, Southern Utah 7▼2%Colorado State’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▼2%Colorado State’s chance to win, 98% to 96%H.Hejny pass intercepted by P.Vance at SUU12, End Of Play▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football- Q2, 12:58 · Colorado State up 10Jayden Brown runs 1 yard for a touchdownSouthern Utah at Colorado State, week 2Q2, 12:58 · Colorado State 24, Southern Utah 7▲2%Colorado State’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▲2%Colorado State’s chance to win, 98% to 100%M.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SUU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 9:57 · Southern Utah down 17Floyd Chalk IV runs 58 yards for a touchdownSouthern Utah at Colorado State, week 2Q2, 9:57 · Southern Utah 14, Colorado State 245858-yard touchdown run5858-yard touchdown run58-yard touchdown runF.Chalk rush middle for 58 yards gain to the CSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 4:12 · Southern Utah down 10Floyd Chalk IV runs 3 yards for a touchdownSouthern Utah at Colorado State, week 2Q2, 4:12 · Southern Utah 21, Colorado State 24▲2%Southern Utah’s chance to win, 4% to 6%▲2%Southern Utah’s chance to win, 4% to 6%F.Chalk rush left for 3 yards gain to the CSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 3:24 · Colorado State up 3Jayden Brown runs 73 yards for a touchdownSouthern Utah at Colorado State, week 2Q2, 3:24 · Colorado State 31, Southern Utah 217373-yard touchdown run7373-yard touchdown run73-yard touchdown runM.Brown rush right for 73 yards gain to the SUU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
Colorado State lost to Oregon State after being 83% to win; the closest win was against San Diego State, down to 26%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Colorado State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Colorado State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Colorado StateOumar Diomande leads Colorado State with 76 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Colorado State fields a strong pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a porous defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Colorado State reads strongest in red-zone finish (top 2%) and explosive plays (top 5%); the crux lives in rushing EPA allowed, where Colorado State sits at the 0th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Colorado State is worth +4.0 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 48th percentile of 133 programs
42% at home, 20% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (18-25 home, 9-35 away). Interval ±3.5.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Colorado State has beaten the number by −0.9 more at home than away over 93 games. That is inside the ±6.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Canvas Stadium seats 36,500 and has averaged 85% full (31,130, 31 games reported). Visitors face the 27th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 613 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads middle of fbs. 13% of the 2026 roster (21 of 157 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 50 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Garbage timeTommy Maher sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline: the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
- Deep threatLavon Brown is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatTay Lanier is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatTommy Maher is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Durell Robinson and Jayden Brown split the carries (106/158 vs 52/158) -- but Jayden Brown leads on every measured axis. This isn't a split role, it's a hierarchy with a change-of-pace back behind it.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jackson Harper (WR) and Javonte Vereen (TE) split the targets (41/72 vs 31/72) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Colorado State actually scores
88th percentile quality, 30th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Colorado State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 92nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 89th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Colorado State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
66th percentile success on standard downs, 95th on passing downs — a 29-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Colorado State by half
1st-half offense ranks 70th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 94th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Colorado State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.22; 76th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.39 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Colorado State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.9% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 257-play sample) — mid-pack, 58 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Colorado State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (70.5% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 149-play sample) — most generous, 135 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 56% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
5 of 9 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 31% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~18% league rate.
9 interceptions of 29 disrupted passes (20 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Winning the penalty battle: 33 penalties committed vs. 43 drawn on opponents, a 89-yard edge.
299 penalty yards committed vs. 388 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Colorado State
Most similar programs · Colorado StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO · 5,014 ft above sea level
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 44°, between 33° and 57° in about 7 in 10 games (30 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 57°, and 8 in 10 ran between 38° and 77° (46 of 51 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.