Colorado State

2-0

Pac-12 · Jim Mora, year 1 (2-0) · Canvas Stadium · 36,500 · 38,147 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#79 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #98 (-7.5) · FPI #90
The marketBYU by 17.5vs BYU · our model 22% Colorado State · a number, not a pick

LastW 58–24 vs Southern Utah · Sat Sep 12 · Hauss Hejny 325 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

Nextvs BYU · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 pm ET · Canvas Stadium · BYU by 17.5 · series 27-39-3, lost the last 7 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
46.5
Pts allowed/game
18.5
Total yards/gm#20 / 138 · 86th pct
537.0
Rush yards/gmT-#34 / 138 · 75th pct
225.0
Pass yards/gm#30 / 138 · 79th pct
312.0
Yards allowed/gm#86 / 138 · 38th pct
357.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#106 / 138 · 24th pct
174.5
SacksT-#38 / 138 · 65th pct
5
InterceptionsT-#1 / 115 · 98th pct
5
3rd-down convT-#33 / 138 · 73rd pct
50.0%
All 90 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1074537.0/gm7.90/play#20 / 138 · 86th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
715357.5/gm6.11/play#86 / 138 · 38th pct#55 / 70 · 22nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
450225.0/gm3.31/playT-#34 / 138 · 75th pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
349174.5/gm2.98/play#106 / 138 · 24th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6532.5/gmT-#104 / 138 · 23rd pctT-#53 / 70 · 23rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7336.5/gmT-#88 / 138 · 36th pctT-#52 / 70 · 26th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#77 / 138 · 34th pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#86 / 138 · 31st pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
624312.0/gm4.59/play#30 / 138 · 79th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
366183.0/gm3.13/play#56 / 138 · 60th pct#39 / 70 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
7135.5/gmT-#34 / 138 · 75th pctT-#15 / 70 · 78th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4422.0/gm#16 / 138 · 89th pct#10 / 70 · 86th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
4623.0/gmT-#41 / 138 · 70th pctT-#21 / 70 · 69th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2512.5/gmT-#14 / 138 · 89th pctT-#10 / 70 · 85th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
94.5/gm#6 / 138 · 96th pct#6 / 70 · 92nd pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 70 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
166.4166.4#29 / 115 · 75th pct#23 / 60 · 62nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Opp
129.6129.6#55 / 91 · 40th pct#31 / 42 · 27th pct#5 / 13 · 69th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 70 · 53rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#135 / 138 · 1st pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct
Sacks (def)
Team
52.5/gmT-#38 / 138 · 65th pctT-#21 / 70 · 60th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#9 / 138 · 86th pctT-#6 / 70 · 82nd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
157.5/gmT-#22 / 138 · 82nd pctT-#14 / 70 · 78th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#81 / 138 · 34th pctT-#47 / 70 · 27th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
4020.0/gmT-#86 / 138 · 36th pctT-#51 / 70 · 27th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3517.5/gmT-#61 / 138 · 54th pctT-#43 / 70 · 37th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
157.5/gmT-#20 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#10 / 70 · 84th pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
63.0/gmT-#12 / 138 · 86th pctT-#10 / 70 · 79th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
3015.0/gmT-#29 / 138 · 78th pctT-#11 / 70 · 84th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2211.0/gmT-#13 / 138 · 89th pctT-#4 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 70 · 49th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 91st pctT-#1 / 70 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
31.5/gmT-#66 / 138 · 41st pctT-#35 / 70 · 44th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#3 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#2 / 70 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
56:0128:00/gm#110 / 138 · 21st pct#58 / 70 · 18th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
63:5932:00/gm#100 / 138 · 28th pct#58 / 70 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.45 EPA/play8241 / 6365.1539
#35 FBS
8.69
#2 FBS
1180.95670.710.41.6
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.02 EPA/play11222773.5020
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+1.31 EPA/play62914015.62
#24 FBS
49
+0.72 EPA/play152811914.92
#24 FBS
38
+0.70 EPA/play29108123
#9 FBS
57

2026 stat leaders · Colorado State

through 2 games

Oumar Diomande leads Colorado State with 16 tackles through 2 games.

1. Oumar Diomande LB 16 tackles
2. TreShawn Moore S 16 tackles
3. Jayden Brown RB 228 rushing yards
4. Jaseim Mitchell LB 14 tackles
5. Hauss Hejny QB 539 passing yards
How They Play · 2025

Colorado State fields a limited pass-first offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.

Offense
36th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
52% pass plays
Defense
13th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
27th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Colorado State · 2025

Colorado State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 55%) and rushing epa (top 63%); the crux lives in passing epa allowed, where Colorado State sits at the 0th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.14
36th
Success Rate +0.40
28th
Explosive Plays +1.25
46th
Rushing EPA +0.07
38th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.23
13th
Success Rate Allowed +0.44
15th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.32
27th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.58
1st

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.21
35th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.13
28th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Colorado State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Colorado State is worth +4.0 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 46th percentile of 133 programs

42% at home, 22% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (17–23 home, 9–32 away). Interval ±3.7.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Colorado State has beaten the number by −0.5 more at home than away over 71 games — inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Canvas Stadium seats 36,500 and has averaged 83% full (30,413, 28 games reported). Visitors face the 26th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 606 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads middle of fbs. 13% of the 2026 roster (21 of 157 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.

Home17–23Away9–32Edge+4.0 ±3.7Visitor trip606 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Colorado State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 66th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 80th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 66th pctileCompetitive snaps onl…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Colorado State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

82nd percentile success on standard downs, 91st on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantColorado StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Colorado State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.3% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 60-play sample) — mid-pack, 18 of 41 qualifying offenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=60 short-zone plays, raw rate 68.3%
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Colorado State

CFB Zeitgeist

#79

-0.9

SP+

#98

-7.5

FPI

#90

-5.4

Elo

#104

1327

The national models put Colorado State between 90th and 104th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 79th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Colorado State

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

62°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.

Based on 70 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site