Colorado State beats San Diego State 56-49
Team pages: San Diego State · Colorado State
Colorado State beat San Diego State 56-49. Share this game
We had Colorado State favored. It won.
Next: San Diego State vs Washington State, Sat Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ET · San Diego State favored by 2.5
Next: Colorado State at Utah State, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Colorado State underdog by 6.5
How it swung
The turning point: Robinson 10-yd TD run, Colorado State goes ahead 28-24 (Q2, 5:14). Colorado State went from 47% to 69% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Colorado State a 52% chance, and the closing betting line (Colorado State was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.
A tight one: Colorado State bottomed out at 38% and won.
San Diego State never had better than a 62% chance.
Colorado State · Q2 1:33Colorado State 56-49 San Diego State
Colorado State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.San Diego State 49-56 Colorado StateSan Diego State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q2 10:19Hejny 54-yd TD pass to Maher, Colorado State goes ahead 21-17Colorado State 48% → 68% (+20)
- 2Q2 9:06Kinnard 32-yd TD run, San Diego State goes ahead 24-21Colorado State 63% → 42% (−21)
- 3Q2 5:14Robinson 10-yd TD run, Colorado State goes ahead 28-24Colorado State 47% → 69% (+22)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q2 10:19Hejny 54-yd TD pass to Maher, Colorado State goes ahead 21-17San Diego State 52% → 32% (−20)
- 2Q2 9:06Kinnard 32-yd TD run, San Diego State goes ahead 24-21San Diego State 37% → 58% (+21)
- 3Q2 5:14Robinson 10-yd TD run, Colorado State goes ahead 28-24San Diego State 53% → 31% (−22)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (San Diego State -1.5), at 55% for Colorado State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Colorado State scored on 7 of its 12 drives; San Diego State on 8 of its 12.
Colorado State’s drives are teal, San Diego State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From San Diego State’s side
San Diego State’s best moment: Kinnard 32-yd TD run, San Diego State goes ahead 24-21 (Q2 9:06). It lifted San Diego State’s win chance by 21 points.
What it cost
San Diego State’s chance to win the conference fell from 7% to 3%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
San Diego State plays vs Washington State on Sat Oct 31 with a 3% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Colorado State 56, San Diego State 49
Colorado State covered +1.5 by 8.5. The total, 105, went over 57.5.
| Team totals | San Diego State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 565 | 549 |
| Passing | 23 of 33, 369 yds | 24 of 31, 333 yds |
| Rushing | 37 for 196 yds | 42 for 216 yds |
| First downs | 25 | 26 |
| Third down | 8 of 13 | 9 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 4 for 25 yds | 2 for 25 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:24 | 32:36 |
San Diego State leaders
- Passing Stone Saunders 23 of 33, 369 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Lucky Sutton 22 for 98 yds, 2 TD; Javion Kinnard 10 for 94 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Jaylon Hawkins 6 for 164 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Napier 2 for 66 yds, 1 TD
Colorado State leaders
- Passing Hauss Hejny 24 of 31, 333 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Durell Robinson 19 for 86 yds, 2 TD; Hauss Hejny 11 for 85 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Tommy Maher 6 for 108 yds, 2 TD; Jackson Harper 4 for 59 yds
No rain through the game
53° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Canvas Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Fort Collins (awos) airport, 9.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
San Diego State · 3-4
Rated 36th in our preseason ratings, 88th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Fresno State as a 6.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Colorado State · 2-4
Rated 79th in our preseason ratings, 104th now.
Three straight losses.
L 26-56 vs Oregon State No. 38 of 668 teams
lost by 30 as a 7-point underdog
Week by week
Colorado State
- Wk 2Wvs Southern Utah58-24
- Wk 3Lvs BYU23-41
- Wk 4Lat UTSA45-59
- Wk 5Lvs Oregon State26-56
- Wk 7Lat Texas State27-66
San Diego State
- Wk 3Lvs James Madison13-26
- Wk 4Lat Toledo16-41
- Wk 5Wvs Texas State31-29
- Wk 6Lat Oregon State14-66
- Wk 7Wvs Fresno State26-23
Power rating by week
San Diego State is rated 1.2 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Colorado State’s success rate against San Diego State, 67 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Colorado State’s success rate against San Diego State’s defense
Colorado State offense, 71st percentile · San Diego State defense, 4th
Colorado State’s rushing EPA against San Diego State’s defense
Colorado State offense, 98th percentile · San Diego State defense, 37th
San Diego State’s explosive plays against Colorado State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 27th percentile · Colorado State defense, 44th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
San Diego State leads the series 23-15
38 meetings since 1978 · San Diego State won the last meeting
- 2025San Diego State 45-24
- 2023Colorado State 22-19
- 2020San Diego State 29-17
- 2019San Diego State 24-10
- 2016Colorado State 63-31
Each line is Colorado State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Colorado State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (58th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
San Diego State favored by 1.5 · Total 57.5
How games like this usually go
San Diego State by 1.5, on the usual path until Q2 5:14
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Colorado State.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +3 → +1.5 · Total: 59.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 4.7%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Colorado State is worth +4.0 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.
42% at home, 21% on the road against FBS opponents (18-25 home, 9-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
5,014 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 855 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Colorado State7th0-2
- San Diego State3rd2-1